Simulation of seismic response in a city-like environment

We study the seismic response of idealized 2D cities, constituted by non-equally spaced, non-equally sized homogenized blocks anchored in a soft layer overlying a hard half space. The blocks and soft layer are occupied by dissipative media. To simulate such response, we use an approximation of the viscoelastic modulus by a low-order rational function of frequency and incorporate this approximation into a first-order-in-time scheme. Our results display spatially variable, strong, long-duration responses inside the blocks and on the ground, which qualitatively match the responses observed in some earthquake-prone cities of Mexico, France, the USA, etc.     

Twentieth century ENSO characteristics in the IPCC database

In this paper, we assess and compare to observations the spatial characteristics of the twentieth Century ENSO SST variability simulated by 23 models of the IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 database. The analysis is confined to the SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific and is based on the use of a non-linear neural classification algorithm, the Self-Organizing Maps. Systematic biases include a larger than observed proportion for modelled ENSO maximum variability occurring in the Western Pacific. No clear relationship is found between this bias and the characteristics of the modelled mean state bias in the equatorial Pacific. This bias is mainly related to a misrepresentation of both El Niño and La Niña termination phases for most of the models. In contrast, the onset phase is quite well simulated. Modelled El Niño and La Niña peak phases display an asymmetric bias. Whereas the main bias of the modelled El Niño peak is to exhibit a maximum in the western Pacific, the simulated La Niña bias mainly occurs in the central Pacific. In addition, some models are able to capture the observed El Niño peak characteristics while none of them realistically simulate La Niña peaks. It also arises that the models closest to the observations score unevenly in reproducing the different phases, preventing an accurate classification of the models quality to reproduce the overall ENSO-like variability.     

Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.     

Evolution of the late Pleistocene Mojanda–Fuya Fuya volcanic complex (Ecuador), by progressive adakitic involvement in mantle magma sources

The Mojanda–Fuya Fuya Volcanic Complex consists of two nearby volcanoes, Mojanda and Fuya Fuya. The older one, Mojanda volcano (0.6 to 0.2 Ma), was first constructed by andesites and high-silica andesites forming a large stratovolcano (Lower Mojanda). This edifice was capped by a basaltic andesite and andesitic cone (Upper Mojanda), which collapsed later to form a 3-km-wide summit caldera, after large phreatomagmatic eruptions. The Lower Fuya Fuya edifice was constructed by the extrusion of viscous Si-rich andesitic lavas and dacitic domes, and the emission of a thick sequence of pyroclastic-flow and fallout deposits which include two voluminous rhyolitic layers. An intermediate construction phase at Fuya Fuya is represented by a mainly effusive cone, andesitic in composition (San Bartolo edifice), the construction of which was interrupted by a major sector collapse in the Late Pleistocene. Finally, a complex of thick siliceous lavas and domes was emplaced within the avalanche amphitheatre, forming the Upper Fuya Fuya volcanic centre. This paper shows that the general evolution from an effusive to an explosive eruptive style is related to a progressive adakitic contribution to the magma source. Although all the rocks of the complex are included in the medium-K field of continental arcs, the Fuya Fuya suite (61–75 wt.% SiO₂) shows depletion in Y and HREE and high Sr/Y and La/Yb values, compared to the less silicic Mojanda suite (55–66.5 wt.% SiO₂). The Mojanda calc-alkaline suite was generated by partial melting of an adakite-metasomatised mantle source that left a residue with 2% garnet, followed by fractional crystallization of dominant plagioclase + pyroxene + olivine at shallow, intra-crustal depths. For Fuya Fuya, geochemical and mineralogical data suggest either (1) partial melting of a similar metasomatised mantle with more garnet in the residue (4%), followed by fractional crystallization involving plagioclase, amphibole and pyroxene, or (2) mixing of mafic mantle-derived magma from the Mojanda suite and slab melts, followed by the same fractional crystallization process.     

Implementing low-cost landslide risk reduction: a pilot study in unplanned housing areas of the Caribbean

Landslides pose a serious physical and environmental threat to vulnerable communities living in areas of unplanned housing on steep slopes in the Caribbean. Some of these communities have, in the past, had to be relocated, at costs of millions of dollars, because of major slides triggered by tropical storm rainfall. Even so, evidence shows that: (1) risk reduction is a marginal activity; (2) there has been minimal uptake of hazard maps and vulnerability assessments and (3) there is little on-the-ground delivery of construction for risk reduction. This article directly addresses these issues by developing a low-cost approach to the identification of the potential pore pressure changes that trigger such slides we seek to address these three commentaries directly. A complex 45–60° slope site in St Lucia, West Indies was selected as a pilot for a modelling approach that uses numerical models (FLAC and CHASM) to verify the need for surface water management to effectively reduce landslide risk. Following the model confirmation, a series of drains were designed and constructed at the site. Post-construction evidence indicates the methodology to be sound, in that the site was stable in subsequent 1-in-1 to 1-in-4 year rainfall events. A critical feature of the approach is that it is community-based from data acquisition through to community members participating in construction.     

Monitoring above-zone temperature variations associated with CO2 and brine leakage from a storage aquifer

CO₂ injection in saline aquifers induces temperature changes owing to processes such as Joule–Thomson cooling, endothermic water vaporization, exothermic CO₂ dissolution besides the temperature discrepancy between injected and native fluids. CO₂ leaking from the injection zone, in addition to initial temperature contrast due to the geothermal gradient, undergoes similar processes, causing temperature changes in the above zone. Numerical simulation tools were used to evaluate temperature changes associated with CO₂ leakage from the storage aquifer to an above-zone monitoring interval and to assess the monitorability of CO₂ leakage on the basis of temperature data. The impact of both CO₂ and brine leakage on temperature response is considered for three cases (1) a leaky well co-located with the injection well, (2) a leaky well distant from the injector, and (3) a leaky fault. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine key operational and reservoir parameters that control the temperature signal in the above zone. Throughout the analysis injection-zone parameters remain unchanged. Significant pressure drop upon leakage causes expansion of CO₂ associated with Joule–Thomson cooling. However, brine may begin leaking before CO₂ breakthrough at the leakage pathway, causing heating in the above zone. Thus, unlike the pressure which increases in response to both CO₂ and brine leakage, the temperature signal may differentiate between the leaking fluids. In addition, the strength of the temperature signal correlates with leakage velocity unlike pressure signal whose strength depends on leakage rate. Increasing leakage conduit cross-sectional area increases leakage rate and thus increases pressure change in the above zone. However, it decreases leakage velocity, and therefore, reduces temperature cooling and signal. It is also shown that the leakage-induced temperature change covers a small area around the leakage pathway. Thus, temperature data will be most useful if collected along potential leaky wells and/or wells intersecting potential leaky faults.     

Late Quaternary kinematics of the Pallatanga strike-slip fault (Central Ecuador) from topographic measurements of displaced morphological features

The northeast-trending Pallatanga right-lateral strike-slip fault runs across the Western Cordillera connecting N50E-N70E trending normal faults in the Gulf of Guayaquil with N-S reverse faults in the Interandean Depression. Over most of its length, the fault trace has been partly obscured by erosional processes and can be inferred in the topography only at the large scale. Only the northern fault segment, which follows the upper Rio Pangor valley at elevations above 3600 m, is prominent in the morphology. Valleys and ridges cut and offset by the fault provide an outstanding record of right-lateral cumulative fault displacement. The fault geometry and kinematics of this particular fault segment can be determined from detailed topographic levellings. The fault strikes N30E and dips 75 to the NW. Depending on their size and nature, transverse morphological features such as tributaries of the Rio Pangor and intervening ridges, reveal right-lateral offsets which cluster around 27 ± 11m, 41.5 ± 4 m, 590 ± 65 m and 960 ± 70 m. The slip vector deduced from the short-term offsets shows a slight reverse component with a pitch of about 11.5 SW. The 41.5 ± 4 m displacements are assumed to be coeval with the last glacial termination, yielding a mean Holocene slip-rate of 2.9- 4.6 mm yr⁻¹. Assuming a uniform slip rate on the fault in the long term, the 27 m offset appears to correlate with an identified middle Holocene morphoclimatic event, and the long term offsets of 590 m and 960 m coincide with the glacial terminations at the beginning of the last two interglacial periods.     

Observed dependence of the water vapor and clear-sky greenhouse effect on sea surface temperature: comparison with climate warming experiments

This study presents a comparison of the water vapor and clear-sky greenhouse effect dependence on sea surface temperature for climate variations of different types. Firstly, coincident satellite observations and meteorological analyses are used to examine seasonal and interannual variations and to evaluate the performance of a general circulation model. Then, this model is used to compare the results inferred from the analysis of observed climate variability with those derived from global climate warming experiments. One part of the coupling between the surface temperature, the water vapor and the clear-sky greenhouse effect is explained by the dependence of the saturation water vapor pressure on the atmospheric temperature. However, the analysis of observed and simulated fields shows that the coupling is very different according to the type of region under consideration and the type of climate forcing that is applied to the Earth-atmosphere system. This difference, due to the variability of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, is analyzed in detail by considering the temperature lapse rate and the vertical profile of relative humidity. Our results suggest that extrapolating the feedbacks inferred from seasonal and short-term interannual climate variability to longer-term climate changes requires great caution. It is argued that our confidence in climate models' predictions would be increased significantly if the basic physical processes that govern the variability of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, and its relation to the large-scale circulation, were better understood and simulated. For this purpose, combined observational and numerical studies focusing on physical processes are needed.