Late Holocene climates of the Near East deduced from Dead Sea level variations and modern regional winter rainfall

The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest hydrological systems in the Levant and may thus be viewed as a large rain gauge for the region. Variations of its level are indicative of the climate variations in the region. Here, we present the decadal- to centennial-resolution Holocene lake-level curve of the Dead Sea. Then we determine the regional hydroclimatology that affected level variations. To achieve this goal we compare modern natural lake-level variations and instrumental rainfall records and quantify the hydrology relative to lake-level rise, fall, or stability. To quantify that relationship under natural conditions, rainfall data pre-dating the artificial Dead Sea level drop since the 1960s are used. In this respect, Jerusalem station offers the longest uninterrupted pre-1960s rainfall record and Jerusalem rains serve as an adequate proxy for the Dead Sea headwaters rainfall. Principal component analysis indicates that temporal variations of annual precipitation in all stations in Israel north of the current 200 mm yr⁻¹ average isohyet during 1940–1990 are largely synchronous and in phase (70% of the total variance explained by PC1). This station also represents well northern Jordan and the area all the way to Beirut, Lebanon, especially during extreme drought and wet spells. We (a) determine the modern, and propose the past regional hydrology and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climatology that affected the severity and length of droughts/wet spells associated with multiyear episodes of Dead Sea level falls/rises and (b) determine that EM cyclone tracks were different in average number and latitude in wet and dry years in Jerusalem. The mean composite sea level pressure and 500-mb height anomalies indicate that the potential causes for wet and dry episodes span the entire EM and are rooted in the larger-scale northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. We also identified remarkably close association (within radiocarbon resolution) between climatic changes in the Levant, reflected by level changes, and culture shifts in this region.     

Salt accumulation in the loessial sequence in the Be'er Sheva Basin,Israel

Evidence of climatic changes is recorded in the salt content of the surface sediments in arid zones. In wetter periods airborne salts are removed downward by leaching to the groundwater, whereas in drier periods they accumulate. The period of salt accumulation in the loessial sediments of the northern Negev is about 10,000 yr. This period represents the recent aridification phase. The beginning of this stretch of time followed the last humid period in the region. Top paleo soil (calcic horizon) found in the region and dated 12,000 yr B.P. is an indicator of this humid period. This article is a contribution from the Agricultural Research Organization, The Volcani Center, Bet Datan, Israel, No. 1751E, 1986 series.     

Extended free net adjustment constraints

The contribution of geodetic measurements to the establishment of a control network can be partitioned into global and local (individual) components. The global component epitomized in a number of geometrically meaningful parameters can be estimated together with the individual point coordinates. The additional rank defect created by the extension of the parameter list is corrected by free net adjustment constraints which are extended beyond those needed for a solution of the network datum problem. Two applications of extended free net adjustment are outlined and illustrated by elementary numerical examples. A non-Cartesian (skew) reference system discussed in the Appendix provides an exotic interpretation of the estimated global and individual parameters. Prepared during a grant period (September 1984 through February 1985) while serving as a Visiting Senior Scientist in Geodesy, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.     

Sea level pressure patterns associated with dry or wet monthly rainfall conditions in Turkey

Summary  Monthly rainfall totals at 7 stations across Turkey and sea level pressure (SLP) in 16 grid points in the region delimited by the 20° E and 50° E longitudes and by the 30° N and 45° N latitudes were analysed. Data were available for a period longer than sixty years. The standard deviations of SLP at each grid point for each month, were calculated and mapped. For each station, months were defined as dry or wet according to their z scores: ≤ −1.0 or ≥ 1.0 respectively. Maps showing the SLP z scores of the corresponding dry or wet months for each station were prepared. The maps, enable to distinguish between SLP patterns associated with dry or wet conditions. Furthermore, correlations between monthly rainfall in each of the stations and SLP at each grid point were performed. The correlation coefficients were mapped. (a) The variability of the SLP decreases from the Balkans towards the Arabian Peninsula and is much larger in winter as compared with summer. (b) Relationship between rainfall in Turkey and the regional SLP is large in winter and non existing in summer. (c) Pressure patterns associated with dry conditions, show usually positive SLP departures, whereas, pressure patterns associated with wet conditions show usually negative SLP departures. (d) There is a great resemblance between pressure patterns associated with wet conditions and correlation maps of the same months. Received September 4, 2000 Revised January 15, 2001     

Recent variations in 700 hPa geopotential heights in summer over Europe and the Middle East,and their influence on other Meteorological factors

Summary Recent variations in atmospheric circulation in the eastern Mediterranean are analyzed and discussed. Interdecadal differences in mean monthly 700 hPa geopotential heights for June, July, and August in the period 1951–1980 show a trend of decreasing pressure of the subtropical high pressure belt over the Sahara Desert. The decrease is observed in the magnitude of the high pressure, in its areal extent, and in its northward position. Broader variations in other meteorological variables, such as rainfall regimes, temperature fields, wind variability, and evapotranspiration rates, are discussed in relation to variations in pressure fields and in indices of circulation such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. The trend from the 1950s through the 1970s was towards more temperate summer climate in the region.With 5 Figures     

Considered parameters in a least squares adjustment process

Least squares adjustment processes occasionally utilize constants with a known degree of uncertainty. If the covariance matrix of the adjusted parameters is estimated without considering those uncertainties the resulting estimate is invariably too optimistic. A method is proposed by which without altering the values of the adjusted parameters their a posteriori (after the adjustment) covariance matrix can be improved by the inclusion of the effect of uncertainties in the constants.     

Estimating ground water recharge using flow models of perched karstic aquifers

The fraction of rain that is annually recharged to ground water is a function of the transient quantities of precipitation (wet vs. dry years) as well as other meteorological and geologic factors, and thus it is very difficult to estimate. In this study, we have used long records (20 to 30 years) of precipitation and spring discharge to reconstruct the transient character of yearly recharge. These data sets were used to calibrate numerical ground water flow models on the less than 3 km(2) scale for four separate perched karstic aquifers in the Judean and Samarian Mountains of Israel. The stratification and karstic character of the local carbonate rock aquifers cause ground water to flow through discrete dissolution channels and to discharge at isolated springs. An innovative, dual-porosity approach was used where a finite-difference solution simulates flow in the rock matrix, while the karstic channels are simulated using computationally simple drains. Perched conditions are also simulated innovatively using MODFLOW by treating the bottom unsaturated layer as if it is saturated, but by assuming zero pressure head throughout the "unsaturated" layer. Best fitting between measured and computed spring hydrograph data has allowed us to develop a set of empirical functions relating measured precipitation to recharge to the aquifer. The generic methodology presented gives insight into the suspected changes in aquifer recharge rates between particularly wet or dry years.     

Rainfall uncertainty in the Mediterranean: definitions of the daily rainfall threshold (DRT) and the rainy season length (RSL)

One of the major dilemmas in rainfall-regime research is regarding the representativity of rainfall amounts. The annual total (TOTAL) represents the summation of the contributions of all rainfall events. However, this parameter is obtained mainly by contributions of some major events, whereas, many others may contribute minute quantities of a negligible impact. A selected daily rainfall threshold (DRT) is used to filter these small events and to retain only the effective ones (for a wide range of activities), and enable focusing on them in order to better detect any important temporal changes in the rainfall regime. Two different procedures are applied to the data in order to filter out slight and/or sporadic rains: (a) definition of a DRT for each station which filters out the slight rains all year around regardless of their timing, and (b) definitions of the rainy season beginning date (RSBD) and the rainy season ending date (RSED), which filter out sporadic rain events at the beginning or the end of the rainy season, regardless of their amount. The current study presents the appropriate DRT and effective rainy season length (RSL) in 41 Mediterranean stations, and analyzes their influence on some other parameters. The main conclusions are: (1) the filtering process reduced considerably the number of rain-spells (NRS) and therefore the average intensities increased; (2) the filtering process reduced the average time that elapsed between the beginning of two consecutive rain-spells, and (3) the RSL within the study area has a clear spatial distribution, longer in the northern parts and shorter in the southern parts.