Paper II – Dirt,dates and DNA: OSL and radiocarbon chronologies of perennially frozen sediments in Siberia,and their implications for sedimentary ancient DNA studies

Arnold, L. J., Roberts, R. G., MacPhee, R. D. E., Haile, J. S., Brock, F., Möller, P., Froese, D. G., Tikhonov, A. N., Chivas, A. R., Gilbert, M. T. P. & Willerslev, E. 2010: Paper II – Dirt, dates and DNA: OSL and radiocarbon chronologies of perennially frozen sediments in Siberia, and their implications for sedimentary ancient DNA studies. Boreas, Vol. 40, pp. 417–445. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00181.x. ISSN 0300‐9483 The sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) technique offers a potentially invaluable means of investigating species evolution and extinction dynamics in high‐latitude environments. An implicit assumption of the sedaDNA approach is that the extracted DNA is autochthonous with the host deposit and that it has not been physically transported from older source deposits or reworked within the sedimentary profile by postdepositional mixing. In this paper we investigate whether these fundamental conditions are upheld at seven perennially frozen wetland sites across the Taimyr Peninsula and coastal lowlands of north‐central Siberia. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dating are used to constrain the ages of both the inorganic and organic fractions of perennially frozen deposits from which sedaDNA of extinct and extant species have been recovered. OSL and ¹⁴C age/depth profiles, as well as single‐grain equivalent dose (D_e) distribution characteristics, are used to assess the stratigraphic integrity of these sedaDNA sequences by (i) identifying the presence of primary or reworked organic and inorganic material, and (ii) examining the types of depositional and postdepositional processes that have affected specific sedimentary facies. The results of this study demonstrate that even though DNA preservation and stratigraphic integrity are commonly superior in perennially frozen settings, this does not, in itself, guarantee the suitability of the sedaDNA approach. The combined OSL and ¹⁴C chronologies reveal that certain perennially frozen sites may be poorly suited for sedaDNA analysis, and that careful site selection is paramount to ensuring the accuracy of any sedaDNA study – particularly for ‘latest appearance date’ estimates of extinct taxa.     

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.     

使用跳跃扩散模型的咖啡价格期权定价（英文）

这篇文章旨在构建一个期权定价模型以减少与埃塞俄比亚咖啡价格波动相关的风险。我们使用从埃塞俄比亚商品交易所(ECX)获得的2011年5月31日至2018年3月30日期间记录的埃塞俄比亚每日(WSDA3)咖啡价格来分析其咖啡价格的波动。本文使用跳跃扩散模型对咖啡价格进行建模和期权定价,应用最大似然法估计模型参数,使用均方根误差(RMSE)来对模型进行验证。结果表明Merton和双指数跳跃扩散模型的RMSE值分别为0.1093和0.0783,模型模拟结果与实际数据非常吻合,说明采用蒙特卡罗技术得到的WSDA3价格来对期权定价时,双指数跳跃扩散模型比Merton模型更为有效。