Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.     

Morphodynamic upscaling with the MORFAC approach: Dependencies and sensitivities

The recently developed Morphological Acceleration Factor (MORFAC) approach for morphodynamic upscaling enables numerical model simulations of coastal evolution at decadal to millennial time scales. Primarily due to the massive increase in modeling time scales it affords, the MORFAC approach is now standard in state-of-the-art commercially available coastal morphodynamic modeling suites. However, the general validity of the MORFAC concept for coastal applications has not yet been comprehensively investigated. Furthermore, a robust and objective method (as opposed to the subjective and inelegant trial and error method) for the a priori determination of the highest MORFAC that is suitable for a given simulation (i.e. critical MORFAC) does not currently exist. This communication presents some initial results of an ongoing, long-term study that attempts to rigorously and methodically investigate the limitations and strengths of the MORFAC approach. Based on the results of a strategically designed numerical modeling exercise using the morphodynamic model Delft3D, two main outcomes are presented. First, the main dependencies and sensitivities of the MORFAC approach to fundamental forcing conditions and model parameters are elucidated. Second, a criterion based on the Courant–Friedrichs–Levy (CFL) condition for bed form propagation that maybe used as a guide to determine the critical MORFAC a priori is proposed.     

Thermal state of the Roer Valley Graben,part of the European Cenozoic Rift System

We performed a detailed analysis of the thermal state of the Cenozoic Roer Valley Graben, the north–western branch of the European Cenozoic Rift System, based on a new set of temperature data. We developed a numerical technique for correcting bottom hole temperatures, including an evaluation of the uncertainty of thermal parameters. Comparison with drill stem test temperatures indicated that the uncertainty in corrected bottom hole temperatures using a two‐component numerical model is approximately ± 4 °C, which is much more accurate than the up to 15 °C errors encountered in often‐used line‐source or Horner correction methods. The subsurface temperatures and the derived regional heat flow estimates of 53 ± 6 to 63 ± 6 mW m^?2 show no significant difference between the central rift and the adjacent structural highs. The absence of an elevated heat flow is attributed to the low amount of lithospheric thinning during the Cenozoic rifting phase (β=1.06–1.15). A local thermal anomaly exceeding +10 °C was found in five wells in the north–western part of the rift basin at depths of 1000–1500 m, and is most likely caused by the upward flow of fluids along faults, whereas lower temperatures in the upper 1500 m in the southern part of the rift basin could indicate cooling by topography‐driven groundwater flow. Conflicting ideas exist on the active or passive rifting mechanisms responsible for the formation of the different rift basins of European Cenozoic Rift System. The low spatial variation in heat flow found in this study suggests that the mechanism responsible for forming the Roer Valley Graben is passive rifting.     

Modelling of wave damping at Guyana mud coast

The Guyana coastal system is characterized by very thick deposits of Amazon mud and high mud concentrations in its coastal waters. The mud deposits can be quite soft and may liquefy under incoming waves. Subsequently, the liquefied mud damps the incoming waves effectively. This paper presents a simple model to predict wave attenuation over soft (fluid) mud beds. This model is based on the two-layer approach by Gade [Gade, H.G., 1958, Effects of a non-rigid, impermeable bottom on plane surface waves in shallow water, Journal of Marine Research, 16 (2) 61–82.] which is implemented in the standard version of the state-of-the-art wave-prediction model SWAN. Input to the mud wave damping module consists of the extension, thickness, density and viscosity of the liquefied (fluid) mud layer.     

Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk

Detailed estimates of economy-wide disaster losses provide important inputs for disaster risk management. The most common models used to estimate losses are input–output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. A key strength of these models is their ability to capture the ripple effects, whereby the impacts of a disaster are transmitted to regions and sectors that are not directly affected by the event. One important transmission channel is household migration. Changes in the spatial distribution of people are likely to have substantial impacts on local labour and housing markets. In this paper, we argue that IO and CGE models suffer from limitations in representing household migration under disaster risk. We suggest combining IO and CGE models with agent-based models to improve the representation of migration in disaster impact analysis.