What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Elm bark beetle in Holocene peat deposits and the northwest European elm decline

The elm decline of 5000 ¹⁴C yr ago has been the most widely discussed phenomenon in post‐glacial vegetation history. This pan‐European reduction of elm populations, echoed in the decimation of elmwoods in Europe during the twentieth century, has attracted a series of interrelated hypotheses involving climate change, human activity, disease and soil deterioration. The elm bark beetle (Scolytus scolytus L.) is an essential component of disease explanations. We present evidence for the presence of the beetle over a prolonged period (ca. 7950–4910 yr BP [8800–5660 cal. yr BP]) from a lowland raised mire deposit in northeast Scotland, with its final appearance at this site, and the first and only appearance in another mire of a single scolytid find, around the time of the elm decline. The subfossil S. scolytus finds are not only the first from Scotland, but they also represent the most comprehensive sequence of finds anywhere. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transient‐state groundwater flow in various geometries with wells at arbitrary positions: analytical methods

We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The D-CIXS X-ray mapping spectrometer on SMART-1

The D-CIXS Compact X-ray Spectrometer will provide high quality spectroscopic mapping of the Moon, the primary science target of the ESA SMART-1 mission. D-CIXS consists of a high throughput spectrometer, which will perform spatially localised X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. It will also carry a solar monitor, to provide the direct calibration needed to produce a global map of absolute lunar elemental abundances, the first time this has been done. Thus it will achieve ground breaking science within a resource envelope far smaller than previously thought possible for this type of instrument, by exploiting two new technologies, swept charge devices and micro-structure collimators. The new technology does not require cold running, with its associated overheads to the spacecraft. At the same time it will demonstrate a radically novel approach to building a type of instrument essential for the BepiColombo mission and potential future planetary science targets.     

S-type asteroids,ordinary chondrites,and space weathering: The evidence from Galileo's fly-bys of Gaspra and Ida

Abstract— New observations of the S-type asteroids Gaspra and Ida, especially, by the Galileo spacecraft demonstrate that a “space weathering” process operates, which modifies the reflectance spectra of fresh material to be redder, straighter, and have shallower absorption bands. The weathering process appears similar to but less potent than that observed on the Moon. It operates in the sense that it would tend to convert spectra of ordinary chondrites (OC) to having the spectral traits of S-type asteroids. These results appear to resolve the major obstacles of the long standing “S-type conundrum” about the provenance of ordinary chondrite meteorites. A wide body of recent research, which is reviewed here, builds on previous meteoritical evidence to support a new, developing consensus that the larger S-type asteroids are a diverse assortment of silicaceous assemblages, which includes the ordinary chrondite parent bodies. Recent fairly realistic laboratory simulations of space weathering processes have changed OC spectra to resemble S-type spectra. J. F. Bell's highly regarded earlier paradigm that OC parent bodies would be found only among sub-10 km main-belt asteroids has been tested by an extensive observational survey by R. Binzel and his proteges; the result is that no small, main-belt analog for the OCs has been found, not even the somewhat OC-like object Boznemcová. This article reviews the history of the S-type conundrum, which set the stage for Galileo's historic flybys. I review the findings about Gaspra and Ida, including results about their geology, their geophysical structure and probable origins, and about Ida's small moonlet, Dactyl. Density constraints on Ida set by Dactyl's orbit rule out (for Ida, at least) the classic view of S-types as metallic, stripped cores of differentiated precursor asteroids. New analysis of the Galileo spectral images of Ida is presented that provides strong evidence that space weathering occurs on Ida, and that Ida, and the Koronis family asteroids in general, are plausibly OC-like in composition. After reviewing 1990s developments on the S-type conundrum, I advocate a new perspective that the ordinary chondrite parent bodies are among the S-type asteroids, a diverse grouping that also contains other silicaceous and silicate/metal assemblages, presumably including various stony-irons and primitive achondrites represented in meteorite collections; Gaspra may be such a metal-rich assemblage.     

The origin of selected lunar geochemical anomalies: Implications for early volcanism and the formation of light plains

The Apollo orbital geochemistry, photogeologic, and other remote sensing data sets were used to identify and characterize geochemical anomalies on the eastern limb and farside of the Moon and to investigate the processes responsible for their formation. The anomalies are located in the following regions: (1) Balmer basin, (2) terrain northeast of Mare Smythii, (3) near Langemak crater, (4) Pasteur crater, (5) terrain northwest of Milne basin, (6) northeast of Mendeleev basin, (7) north and northeast of Korolev basin, (8) terrain north of Taruntius crater, and (9) terrain north of Orientale basin. The anomalies are commonly associated with Imbrian- or Nectarian-aged light plains units which exhibit dark-haloed impact craters. The results of recent spectral reflectance studies of dark-haloed impact craters plus consideration of the surface chemistry of the anomalies strongly indicate that those geochemical anomalies associated with light plains deposits which display dark-haloed impact craters result from the presence of basaltic units that are either covered by varying thickness of highland debris or have a surface contaminated with significant amounts of highlands material. The burial or contamination of ancient volcanic surfaces by varying amounts of highland material appears to have been an important (though not the dominant) process in the formation of lunar light plains. Basaltic volcanism on the eastern limb and farside of the Moon was more extensive in both space and time than has been accepted.     

Imaging the surface of Mercury using ground-based telescopes

We describe and compare two methods of short-exposure, high-definition ground-based imaging of the planet Mercury. Two teams have recorded images of Mercury on different dates, from different locations, and with different observational and data reduction techniques. Both groups have achieved spatial resolutions of <250 km, and the same albedo features and contrast levels appear where the two datasets overlap (longitudes 270–360°). Dark albedo regions appear as mare and correlate well with smooth terrain radar signatures. Bright albedo features agree optically, but less well with radar data. Such confirmations of state-of-the-art optical techniques introduce a new era of ground-based exploration of Mercury's surface and its atmosphere. They offer opportunities for synergistic, cooperative observations before and during the upcoming Messenger and BepiColombo missions to Mercury.