Damages observed in locations of Oaxaca due to the Tehuantepec Mw8.2 earthquake,Mexico

On September 7, 2017, at 23:49 h (local time), a Mw8.2 intermediate-depth normal-fault earthquake occurred in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 133 km away from Pijijiapan, Chiapas, and about 700 km away from Mexico City. This event caused 95 fatalities and severe damage to different types of structures located close to the epicenter. The main objective of this work is to present observed damages caused in the state of Oaxaca by this earthquake, which were mainly concentrated in self-built houses and historical and ancient buildings. The locations visited by the reconnaissance team of the Institute of Engineering from UNAM in Oaxaca included Salina Cruz, Tehuantepec, Ixtaltepec, Juchitán, Huatulco and La Ventosa.

     

Volcanic ash forecast during the June 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption

We modelled the transport and deposition of ash from the June 2011 eruption from Cordón Caulle volcanic complex, Chile. The modelling strategy, currently under development at the Argentinean Naval Hydrographic Service and National Meteorological Service, couples the weather research and forecasting (WRF/ARW) meteorological model with the FALL3D ash dispersal model. The strategy uses volcanological inputs inferred from satellite imagery, eruption reports and preliminary grain-size data obtained during the first days of the eruption from an Argentinean ash sample collection network. In this sense, the results shown here can be regarded as a quasi-syn-eruptive forecast for the first 16 days of the eruption. Although this article describes the modelling process in the aftermath of the crisis, the strategy was implemented from the beginning of the eruption, and results were made available to the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers and other end users. The model predicts ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, expected deposit thickness and ash accumulation rates at relevant localities. Here, we validate the modelling strategy by comparing results with satellite retrievals and syn-eruptive ground deposit measurements. Results highlight the goodness of the combined WRF/ARW-FALL3D forecasting system and point out the usefulness of coupling both models for short-term forecast of volcanic ash clouds.     

Identifying regions based on flexible user-defined constraints

The identification of regions is both a computational and conceptual challenge. Even with growing computational power, regionalization algorithms must rely on heuristic approaches in order to find solutions. Therefore, the constraints and evaluation criteria that define a region must be translated into an algorithm that can efficiently and effectively navigate the solution space to find the best solution. One limitation of many existing regionalization algorithms is a requirement that the number of regions be selected a priori. The recently introduced max-p algorithm does not have this requirement, and thus the number of regions is an output of, not an input to, the algorithm. In this paper, we extend the max-p algorithm to allow for greater flexibility in the constraints available to define a feasible region, placing the focus squarely on the multidimensional characteristics of the region. We also modify technical aspects of the algorithm to provide greater flexibility in its ability to search the solution space. Using synthetic spatial and attribute data, we are able to show the algorithm’s broad ability to identify regions in maps of varying complexity. We also conduct a large-scale computational experiment to identify parameter settings that result in the greatest solution accuracy under various scenarios. The rules of thumb identified from the experiment produce maps that correctly assign areas to their ‘true’ region with 94% average accuracy, with nearly 50% of the simulations reaching 100% accuracy.     

Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation

As a result of the serious consequences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland) on civil aviation, 52 volcanologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dispersion modellers and space and ground-based monitoring specialists from 12 different countries (including representatives from 6 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres and related institutions) gathered to discuss the needs of the ash dispersal modelling community, investigate new data-acquisition strategies (i.e. quantitative measurements and observations) and discuss how to improve communication between the research community and institutions with an operational mandate. Based on a dedicated benchmark exercise and on 3 days of in-depth discussion, recommendations have been made for future model improvements, new strategies of ash cloud forecasting, multidisciplinary data acquisition and more efficient communication between different communities. Issues addressed in the workshop include ash dispersal modelling, uncertainty, ensemble forecasting, combining dispersal models and observations, sensitivity analysis, model variability, data acquisition, pre-eruption forecasting, first simulation and data assimilation, research priorities and new communication strategies to improve information flow and operational routines. As a main conclusion, model developers, meteorologists, volcanologists and stakeholders need to work closely together to develop new and improved strategies for ash dispersal forecasting and, in particular, to: (1) improve the definition of the source term, (2) design models and forecasting strategies that can better characterize uncertainties, (3) explore and identify the best ensemble strategies that can be adapted to ash dispersal forecasting, (4) identify optimized strategies for the combination of models and observations and (5) implement new critical operational strategies.