GEOMORPHOLOGICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE EXCAVATION-INDUCED DÜNDAR LANDSLIDE, BURSA — TURKEY

This paper discusses the occurrence and development of the excavation‐induce deep‐seated landslide, which took place near Dündar village, located west of Orhaneli town in northwestern Turkey. The event occurred in the Bursa‐Orhaneli lignite field, which has been actively operating since 1979. Due to undermining of a gently inclined slope (10°) to extract a coal seam, primary tension cracks, which were precursors of the movement, were first observed in the northern head area in mid‐ to late October 2003. This movement happened simultaneously with precipitation that was significantly above long‐term average measured at a nearby climatology station (Keles). This precipitation amount is characterized statistically by a significant standardized anomaly of 1.6. The majority of the monthly precipitation total in October 2003, which mainly consisted of rain showers and thunderstorms, occurred in the last week of the month. By April 2004, rotational failure continued intermittently. After a relatively wet (rainy and snowy) period from January 2004 to April 2004, the main rotational slump occurred in late April 2004, causing the entire destruction of Dündar village's cemetery. Daily climatic and synoptic meteorological data have proved that heavy showers in late April may had triggered the last slump by producing rain showers of 19.3 mm and 19.9 mm daily total on 27 and 28 April 2004, respectively. Field observations carried out along the main head scarp have shown that the slope failure was facilitated by a pre‐existing normal fault with an east‐ west direction and 80° dip. Grain‐size analysis showed that the failure occurred on clayey silt, which forms 55% of the slip surface material. Based on the evidence from X‐ray fluorescence and energy dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy results, smectite‐type clay ‐ a product of the chemical weathering of tuff ‐ was the main constituent of the slip surface material. The landslide occurred over an area of 600 m × 650 m with a total volume of 8775 000 m³. Approximately 28 hectares of farm land were entirely destroyed and the excavated coal seam was buried. The mining operation was moved to 100 m north of the landslide area near Gümü?p?nar village. From morphological evidence, it is concluded that excavation activities caused the failure to extend in more than one direction as an enlarging sliding mechanism; this produced a high landslide risk for Gümü?p?nar village, where the most significant normal fault with a 75 m vertical displacement in a coal‐bearing sequence is found in the lignite field.     

Mineralogy of Holocene Sediments from the Southwestern Black Sea Shelf (Turkey) in Relation to Provenance, Sea-level and Current Regimes

Grain size and mineral composition of core sediments were used to investigate influences of various terrestrial and marine conditions, which have prevailed on the southwestern Black Sea shelf during the Holocene. Siliciclastic mud with small amounts of sand and gravel from nearby coastal hinterland is the principal sediment type, whereas sediments deposited near the shelf edge and the Istanbul Strait and off the Duru Lake （a paleo-river mouth） constitued large quantities of sand and gravel of both biogenic and terrigenic origin. Variable amounts of aragonite, 1 nmmicas, quartz, feldspars, calcite and dolomite constitute the dominant non-clay minerals in bulk sediments. The clay mineral assemblage in the 〈 2 μm fraction is made up of smectite, illite, kaolinite and chlorite. Aragonite and calcite are mainly derived from benthic accumulations, whereas feldspars （mainly plagioclase） and smectite reflect magmaticvolcanic provenance and the distribution of 1 nm-micas and chlorite correlate with nearby metamorphic sources onland. Nevertheless, grain size and mineral distribution generally indicate a combination of effects of wind and wave climate, longshore and offshore cyclonic currents, changing sea-level stands and nearby source rock and morphological conditions. It is also suggested that at least part of clay minerals could be derived from the northwesterly Danube River input.     

Genetic algorithms for the classification and prediction of precipitation occurrence

Abstract

Using an approach similar to the biological processes of natural selection and evolution, the genetic algorithm (GA) is a nonconventional optimum search technique. Genetic algorithms have the ability to search large and complex decision spaces and handle nonconvexities. In this paper, the GA is applied for solving the optimum classification of rainy and non-rainy day occurrences based on vertical velocity, dewpoint depression, temperature and humidity data. The problem involves finding optimum classification based on known data, training the future prediction system and then making reliable predictions for rainfall occurrences which have significance in agricultural, transportation, water resources and tourism activities. Various statistical approaches require restrictive assumptions such as stationarity, homogeneity and normal probability distribution of the hydrological variables concerned. The GAs do not require any of these assumptions in their applications. The GA approach for the occurrence classifications and predictions is presented in steps and then the application of the methodology is shown for precipitation occurrence (non-occurrence) data. It has been shown that GAs give better results than classical approaches such as discriminant analysis. The application of the methodology is presented independently for the precipitation event occurrences and forecasting at the Lake Van station in eastern Turkey. Finally, the amounts of precipitation are predicted with a model similar to a third order Markov model whose parameters are estimated by the GA technique.