中国经济“新三步走”战略下人均碳排放预测

Under the context of the New Three-step strategy of Chinese economic development, we use the reverse tracing method and petroleum, natural gas and coal as sources of carbon emissions. To eliminate the impact of regional and technological levels in the energy conversion process we improved the IPAT model and used it to predict and analyze China’s per capita carbon emissions in three assumed scenarios up to 2050. We found that China’s per capita carbon emissions peak will occur respectively in 2020 and 2030 in different assumed scenarios; national per capita carbon emissions will reach 2.0127–2.6791 tons; China’s per capita carbon emissions will grow continuously at an average rate of 2.25%–3.40% per year before the peak year and then will decline at a rate of 1.33%–1.78% per year. By the year of 2050, national per capita carbon emissions will be 1.3147–1.8817 tons.