Tsunami risk reduction for densely populated Southeast Asian cities: analysis of vehicular and pedestrian evacuation for the city of Padang, Indonesia, and assessment of interventions

A major tsunamigenic earthquake is expected in the near future along the coast of West Sumatra Province of Indonesia. In the city of Padang, the arrival time of the tsunami is expected to be ~30 min. Currently, there are approximately 400,000 people in the city living within the potential inundation zone. This study aimed to complement the existing research in appraising possible risk reduction interventions, specifically looking at enabling the timely evacuation of the area. This research, developed in consultation with national and local authorities, emergency planners and NGOs, analysed interventions for tsunami risk reduction in Padang through the development of a pedestrian and vehicular evacuation model and the appraisal of possible solutions to enhance the evacuation rates. Some of the conclusions from this research can be applied to other areas in Southeast Asia where the traffic patterns are similar to those in Padang and where the distance to safety is greater than 4–5 km. For the case of Padang, the results show that pedestrian evacuation is strongly preferable to vehicular evacuation due to the limited road capacity and the high population density. In the present situation, however, 70–80 % of the population in Padang could not evacuate within 30 min, even by foot. Common interventions such as widening roads and building bridges prove to be relatively ineffective in this case due to the large distance that has to be covered in a short time. These interventions would only have a decisive impact if a longer evacuation time was available (more than 60 min). In the case of Padang, the evacuation rate in the first 30 min is strongly dependent on the presence/absence of evacuation shelters, whose effectiveness is limited by the capacity of the structures. Building a few high-capacity and high-resilience structures such as evacuation hills is a more effective and robust evacuation strategy than constructing many small high-raised buildings. Even with evacuation structures, wider roads and bridges, about 20 % of the population would still be unable to reach safety by the time the tsunami arrives. This means about 70,000 people of Padang’s current population, which is rapidly increasing. The building of evacuation shelters may be a viable option for saving lives in the short term, but it is not a sustainable option in the medium to long term. It is therefore also necessary to set up and enforce regulations for land use planning that take into account the tsunami risk and prevent further urban development for the areas that may be affected by a tsunami.     

Quantifying potential propagule pressure of aquatic invasive species from the commercial shipping industry in Canada

We quantify and compare different measures of potential propagule pressure (PPP) of aquatic invasive species (AIS) from commercial vessels in Canada. We used ship arrivals and ballast water discharge volumes as proxies for PPP from ballast water organisms, and wetted surface area (WSA) as a proxy for hull fouling PPP, to determine their relative contributions to total PPP. For three regions studied, PPP proxies correlated significantly across ports and some vessel categories. Relative contributions of ship arrivals, ballast discharge, and WSAs to PPP, evidenced by non-significant correlations across these measures, varied across regions, ports, vessel types, and seasons. Flow-through (dominant on east and west coasts) and empty-refill (in Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region) were the major ballast water exchange methods employed by the vessels surveyed. These methods have different biological efficacy for AIS removal, influencing PPP. Our study illustrates benefits and limitations of using different PPP proxies to estimate invasion risk.     

Intra-survey reservoir fluctuations – implications for quantitative 4D seismic analysis

During the time taken for seismic data to be acquired, reservoir pressure may fluctuate as a consequence of field production and operational procedures and fluid fronts may move significantly. These variations prevent accurate quantitative measurement of the reservoir change using 4D seismic data. Modelling studies on the Norne field simulation model using acquisition data from ocean-bottom seismometer and towed streamer systems indicate that the pre-stack intra-survey reservoir fluctuations are important and cannot be neglected. Similarly, the time-lapse seismic image in the post-stack domain does not represent a difference between two states of the reservoir at a unique base and monitor time, but is a mixed version of reality that depends on the sequence and timing of seismic shooting. The outcome is a lack of accuracy in the measurement of reservoir changes using the resulting processed and stacked 4D seismic data. Even for perfect spatial repeatability between surveys, a spatially variant noise floor is still anticipated to remain. For our particular North Sea acquisition data, we find that towed streamer data are more affected than the ocean-bottom seismometer data. We think that this may be typical for towed streamers due to their restricted aperture compared to ocean-bottom seismometer acquisitions, even for a favourable time sequence of shooting and spatial repeatability. Importantly, the pressure signals on the near and far offset stacks commonly used in quantitative 4D seismic inversion are found to be inconsistent due to the acquisition timestamp. Saturation changes at the boundaries of fluid fronts appear to show a similar inconsistency across sub-stacks. We recommend that 4D data are shot in a consistent manner to optimize aerial time coverage, and that additionally, the timestamp of the acquisition should be used to optimize pre-stack quantitative reservoir analysis.     

Rockfall seismic features analysis based on in situ tests:frequency,amplitude, and duration

In the seismic event classification,determining the seismic features of rockfall is significantly important for the automatic classification of seismic events because of the huge amount of raw data recorded by seismic stations in continuous monitoring. At the same time, the rockfall seismic features are still not completely understood.This study concentrates on the rockfall frequency content, amplitude(ground velocity), seismic waveform and duration analysis, of an artificial rockfall test at Torgiovannetto(a former quarry in Central Italy). A total of 90 blocks were released in the test, and their seismic signals and moving trajectories were recorded by four tri-axial seismic stations and four cameras, respectively. In the analysis processing,all the artificial rockfall signal traces were cut separately and the seismic features were extracted individually and automatically. In this study, the relationships between a) frequency content and impacted materials, b) frequency content and the distance between block releasing position and seismic station(source-receiver distance) were discussed. As a result, we found that the frequency content of rockfall focuses on 10-60 Hz and 80-90 Hz within a source-receiver distance of 200 m, and it is well correlated with impacted material and source-receiver distance. To evaluate the difference between earthquake and rockfall, 23 clear earthquake signals recorded in a seven month-long continuous seismic monitoring, carried out with the four seismic stations, were picked out, according to the Italian national earthquakes database(INGV). On these traces we performed the same analysis as in the artificial rockfall traces, and two parameters were defined to separate rockfall events from earthquake noise. The first one, the amplitude ratio, is related to the amplitude variation of rockfall between two stations and is greater than that of earthquakes, because of the higher attenuation occurring for rockfall events, which consists in high frequencies whereas for earthquakes it consists in low frequencies. The other parameter, the shape of waveform of signal trace, showed a significant difference between rockfall and earthquake and that could be a complementary feature to discriminate between both. This analysis of artificial rockfall is a first step helpful to understand the seismic characteristics of rockfall, and useful for rockfall seismic events classification in seismic monitoring of slope.     

EURD observations of interstellar radiation

The hot interstellar medium (ISM) has far-reaching effect upon thestructure of galaxies. Although ISM heating processes are fairly wellunderstood, after decades of study, the processes that cool the hotinterstellar medium remain obscure. The EURD spectrograph was designed tomeasure the diffuse cosmic background from 350 to 1100 Å in order tostudy the hot ISM and the mechanisms by which it sheds its energy. Wepresent the first analysis of EURD observations of the cosmic background.These EURD observations have proven to be far more sensitive than previouswork; compared to previous results, we have improved the limits to theintensity of 450 to 900 Å line emission from the ISM by one to twoorders of magnitude. Our limit to OVI 1032 Å / 1038 Å doublet of 7900ph s^-1 cm^-2 str^-1 is the lowest yet reported. The EURDlimits to line emission are less intense than predicted by a varietytheoretical models of the local ISM.     

The effect of target properties on crater morphology: Comparison of central peak craters on the Moon and Ganymede

Abstract— We examine the morphology of central peak craters on the Moon and Ganymede in order to investigate differences in the near‐surface properties of these bodies. We have extracted topographic profiles across craters on Ganymede using Galileo images, and use these data to compile scaling trends. Comparisons between lunar and Ganymede craters show that crater depth, wall slope and amount of central uplift are all affected by material properties. We observe no major differences between similar‐sized craters in the dark and bright terrain of Ganymede, suggesting that dark terrain does not contain enough silicate material to significantly increase the strength of the surface ice. Below crater diameters of ?12 km, central peak craters on Ganymede and simple craters on the Moon have similar rim heights, indicating comparable amounts of rim collapse. This suggests that the formation of central peaks at smaller crater diameters on Ganymede than the Moon is dominated by enhanced central floor uplift rather than rim collapse. Crater wall slope trends are similar on the Moon and Ganymede, indicating that there is a similar trend in material weakening with increasing crater size, and possibly that the mechanism of weakening during impact is analogous in icy and rocky targets. We have run a suite of numerical models to simulate the formation of central peak craters on Ganymede and the Moon. Our modeling shows that the same styles of strength model can be applied to ice and rock, and that the strength model parameters do not differ significantly between materials.     

Disruption, yet community reconstitution: subverting the privatization of Latin American plazas

Latin American scholars have recently discussed the privatization of urban public space. A fundamental aspect of this process is the disintegration of communities because it often targets and affects a peculiarly Latin American kind of public space: the plaza. Plazas have traditionally functioned as cultural centres in Latin American cites. They are central meeting points for political groups, sites of civic expression and public resistance, as well as places to purchase relatively cheap goods and services. Plazas are, therefore, sites in which families, neighbours, and political organizations mingle, interact, and also challenge authority. This paper uses these sorts of insights on public space in Latin America to develop a conceptualization of the plaza as a community centre. However, the multiple practices and interactions that occur in these forms of public space have been disrupted by state-led strategies which seek to privatize and sanitize public space, thereby disrupting??or even destroying??the community centre. I use primary materials on Mexico City??s Historic centre and its plaza to explore the ways in which this specific type of urban public space has been affected physically and symbolically by a regeneration scheme known as the Programa de Rescate.