Preliminary results for a semi-automated quantification of site effects using geomorphometry and ASTER satellite data for Mozambique,Pakistan and Turkey

Estimation of the degree of local seismic wave amplification (site effects) requires precise information about the local site conditions. In many regions of the world, local geologic information is either sparse or is not readily available. Because of this, seismic hazard maps for countries such as Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey are developed without consideration of site factors and, therefore, do not provide a complete assessment of future hazards. Where local geologic information is available, details on the traditional maps often lack the precision (better than 1:10,000 scale) or the level of information required for modern seismic microzonation requirements. We use high-resolution (1:50,000) satellite imagery and newly developed image analysis methods to begin addressing this problem. Our imagery, consisting of optical data and digital elevation models (DEMs), is recorded from the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) sensor system. We apply a semi-automated, object-oriented, multi-resolution feature segmentation method to identify and extract local terrain features. Then we classify the terrain types into mountain, piedmont and basin units using geomorphometry (topographic slope) as our parameter. Next, on the basis of the site classification schemes from the Wills and Silva (1998) study and the Wills et al (2000) and Wills and Clahan (2006) maps of California, we assign the local terrain units with V _s 30 (the average seismic shear-wave velocity through the upper 30m of the subsurface) ranges for selected regions in Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey. We find that the applicability of our site class assignments in each region is a good first-approximation for quantifying local site conditions and that additional work, such as the verification of the terrain’s compositional rigidity, is needed.     

Legacies from three former manufactured-gas plants: impacts on groundwater quality

Groundwater contamination due to accidental releases of mono- and polycyclic aromatic compounds (MAHs and PAHs) from decommissioned manufactured-gas plants is an ongoing and litigious problem. The MAHs and PAHs are derived from coal tar, which was a by-product of the gas-manufacturing process. While originally designed to contain coal tar, the manufactured-gas plant structures that remain today have often degraded over time and are not completely leak-proof. Over a period of many years, subsurface water has seeped into and out of the structures, resulting in groundwater contamination. This was particularly true once the tops of the structures were removed. In this study, process-based simulations were conducted to estimate the groundwater-quality impacts of accidental releases of dissolved naphthalene (C₁₀H₈) from the sites of three former manufactured-gas plants. The results from one-dimensional, transient, unsaturated, near-surface fluid-flow and solute-transport simulations served as input to three-dimensional saturated subsurface fluid-flow and solute-transport simulations. The simulation results and sensitivity analysis reported here indicate that accidental releases of naphthalene had significant, negative impacts on groundwater quality at each of the three sites. Electronic Publication     

Conceptualizing leakage and storage contributions from long open interval wells in regional deep basin flow models

Deep basin aquifers are increasingly used in water‐stressed areas, though their potential for sustainable development is inhibited by overlying aquitards and limited recharge rates. Long open interval wells (LOIWs)—wells uncased through multiple hydrostratigraphic units—are present in many confined aquifer systems and can be an important mechanism for deep basin aquifers to receive flow across aquitards. LOIWs are a major control on flow in the deep Cambrian–Ordovician sandstone aquifers of the upper Midwest, USA, providing a source of artificial leakage from shallow bedrock aquifers and equilibrating head within the sandstone aquifers despite differential pumpage. Conceptualizing and quantifying this anthropogenic flow has long been a challenge for groundwater flow modellers, particularly on a regional scale. Synoptic measurements of active production wells and well completion data for northeast Illinois form the basis for a transient, head‐specified MODFLOW model that determines mass balance contributions to the region and estimates LOIW leakage to the aquifers. Using this insight, transient LOIW leakage was simulated using transiently changing K_V zones in a traditional, Q‐specified MODFLOW‐USG model, a novel approach that allows the K_V in a cell containing a LOIW to change transiently by use of the time‐variant materials (TVM) package. With this modification, we achieved a consistent calibration through time, averaging 19.9 m root mean squared error. This model indicates that artificial leakage via LOIWs contributed a minimum of 10–13% of total flow to the sandstone aquifers through the entire history of pumping, up to 50% of flow around 1930. Removal from storage exceeds 40% of flow during peak withdrawals, much of this flow sourced from units other than the primary sandstone aquifers via LOIWs. As such, understanding the timing and magnitude of LOIW leakage is essential for predicting future water availability in deep basin aquifers.     

Simplified 3-D dynamic analysis of structures with flexible diaphragms

A simplified method of 3-D dynamic analysis, named 3-D quasi-dynamic analysis, is presented. This method has been primarily used to evaluate stress states at identified times of peak dynamic responses of structures with flexible diaphragms. The quasi-dynamic analysis consists of extracting the accelerations predicted by the time-step integration analyses of two 2-D discrete MDOF dynamic models of a given structure (each discrete model corresponding to one of the principal orthogonal directions of the structure) at given times of interest. These accelerations are imposed on a 3-D representation of the structure (for example, a finite element mesh) as equivalent static forces. Accelerations at the diaphragms are assumed to act over the same tributary areas of the diaphragms considered in the 2-D discrete dynamic models. The study of the firehouse of Gilroy (an unreinforced masonry structure with flexible diaphragms) during the Loma Prieta Earthquake is presented to illustrate the 3-D quasi-dynamic seismic analysis. This method was compared to the more traditional 3-D modal time-step integration and 3-D response spectra analyses. The quasi-dynamic analysis had a general good agreement with the more formal, complex and computationally extensive modal time-step integration analysis. The 3-D response spectra analysis was very conservative and had a poor correlation with both the quasi-dynamic and the modal time-step integration analyses. The case study of the firehouse of Gilroy suggested that if 3-D effects have to be considered in the evaluation of a given structure, the quasi-dynamic analysis constitutes a reliable and computationally cheaper alternative to the more traditional methods of 3-D dynamic analysis.     

Developing Potentiometric Surfaces and Flow Fields with a Head‐Specified MODFLOW Model

Investigating changes in an aquifer system often involves comparison of observed heads from different synoptic measurements, generally with potentiometric surfaces developed by hand or a statistical approach. Alternatively, head‐specified MODFLOW models, in which constant head cells simulate observed heads, generate gridded potentiometric surfaces that explicitly account for Darcy's Law and mass balance. We developed a transient head‐specified MODFLOW model for the stratified Cambrian‐Ordovician sandstone aquifer system of northeastern Illinois to analyze flow within its 275 m deep cone of depression. Potentiometric surfaces were developed using static heads from production wells regardless of open interval; hence assuming no vertical head difference. This assumption was tested against steady‐state, head‐specified models of each sandstone strata for 1980 and 2014. The results indicate that the original conceptual model was appropriate in 1980 but not 2014, where a vertical head difference had developed at the center of the cone of depression. For earlier years, when the head difference was minimal, the transient head‐specified model compared well with a traditional, flow‐specified model. In later years, the transient head‐specified model overestimated removal of water from storage. MODFLOW facilitates the development of a time‐series of potentiometric surfaces and can easily be modified to test the impacts of different conceptual models, such as assumptions on vertical head differences. For this study of a deep confined aquifer, MODFLOW also offers advantages in generating potentiometric surfaces and flow fields over statistical interpolation techniques, although future research is needed to assess its performance in other settings.     

Characterization of pyroclastic fall and flow deposits from the 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano,Indonesia using ground-penetrating radar

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is used to image and characterize fall and pyroclastic flow deposits from the 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano in Indonesia. Analysis of GPR common-mid-point (CMP) data indicate that the velocity of radar in the sub-surface is 0.1 m/ns, and this is used to establish a preliminary traveltime to-depth conversion for common-offset reflection profiles. Common-offset radar profiles were collected along the edge of an erosional gully that exposed approximately 1–2 m of volcanic stratigraphy. Additional trenching at select locations in the gully exposed the contact between the pre-1815 eruption surface and overlying pyroclastic deposit from the 1815 eruption. The deepest continuous, prominent reflection is shown to correspond to the interface between pre-eruption clay-rich soil and pyroclastics that reach a maximum thickness of 4 m along our profiles. This soil surface is distinctly terraced and is interpreted as the ground surface augmented for agriculture and buildings by people from the kingdom of Tambora. The correlation of volcanic stratigraphy and radar data at this location indicates that reflections are produced by the soil-pyroclastic deposit interface and the interface between pyroclastic flows (including pyroclastic surge) and the pumice-rich fall deposits. In the thickest deposits an additional reflection marks the interface between two pyroclastic flow units.     

Amenity migration: diverse conceptualizations of drivers,socioeconomic dimensions,and emerging challenges

Rural communities throughout the postindustrial world are in the midst of a significant transition, sometimes referred to as rural restructuring, as traditional land uses, economic activities, and social arrangements transition to those associated with “post-productivist” or “multifunctional” landscapes. Amenity migration, the movement of people based on the draw of natural and/or cultural amenities, can be thought of as both driver and implication of this transition, resulting in significant changes in the ownership, use, and governance of rural lands, as well as in the composition and socioeconomic dynamics of rural communities. In concert with other social, economic and political processes, amenity migration is contributing to the fundamental transformation of rural communities throughout the world. This paper presents a review of the social science literature related to the concept of amenity migration, focusing on the ways in which it has been conceptualized, theorized, and documented by different communities of scholars. We then profile and summarize diverse perspectives on drivers and socioeconomic impacts, highlighting emerging challenges and opportunities related to this type of migration occurring at multiple scales and in multiple sites. The paper also identifies and discusses particular areas where further research is needed.     

Radiocarbon ages of Holocene Pelado,Guespalapa, and Chichinautzin scoria cones,south of Mexico City: implications for archaeology and future hazards

Pelado, Guespalapa, and Chichinautzin monogenetic scoria cones located within the Sierra del Chichinautzin Volcanic Field (SCVF) at the southern margin of Mexico City were dated by the radiocarbon method at 10,000, 2,800–4,700, and 1,835 years b.p., respectively. Most previous research in this area was concentrated on Xitle scoria cone, whose lavas destroyed and buried the pre-Hispanic town of Cuicuilco around 1,665±35 years b.p. The new dates indicate that the recurrence interval for monogenetic eruptions in the central part of the SCVF and close to the vicinity of Mexico City is <2,500 years. If the entire SCVF is considered, the recurrence interval is <1,700 years. Based on fieldwork and Landsat imagery interpretation a geologic map was produced, morphometric parameters characterizing the cones and lava flows determined, and the areal extent and volumes of erupted products estimated. The longest lava flow was produced by Guespalapa and reached 24 km from its source; total areas covered by lava flows from each eruption range between 54 (Chichinautzin) and 80 km² (Pelado); and total erupted volumes range between 1 and 2 km³/cone. An average eruption rate for the entire SCVF was estimated at 0.6 km³/1,000 years. These findings are of importance for archaeological as well as volcanic hazards studies in this heavily populated region.Editorial responsibility: J. Gilbert     

A Computer-Assisted Plotting Program for Analysing the Dispersion of Pelagic Seabirds and Environmental Features

Abstract. A computer assisted plotting program for combining statistics and distribution maps is described. The program sorts data according to a combination of 28 variables, plots the data in mercator map form, and provides numerical summaries of the data plotted. The program is especially useful in analyses of large data sets spread over large geographical areas. It can be used to test hypotheses in a wide variety of research fields. The utility of the program is demonstrated by an analysis of the dispersion of the Wandering Albatross Diomedea exulans at sea in relation to the incidence of wind strength in the Southern Ocean.     

The Quetzalapa Pumice: a voluminous late Pleistocene rhyolite deposit in the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

The study area is located in the east part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, in the Las Cumbres Volcanic Complex (LCVC) which lies between two large stratovolcanoes: Pico de Orizaba (5700 m a.s.l.) to the south, and Cofre de Perote (4200 m a.s.l.) to the NNE. The most conspicuous structure of the LCVC is a 4-km-diameter circular crater with a dacitic dome in the center, which constitutes the remains of a destroyed stratovolcano.The Quetzalapa Pumice (QP) was produced by a plinian eruption that was dated by the ¹⁴C method at 20 000 yr. BP. The eruptive sequence consists predominantly of pumice fall deposits and scarce intra-plinian pyroclastic flow deposits, which crop out on the west flank of the LCVC. The absence of post-plinian ignimbrite deposits is striking.The deposits are well sorted, clast-supported with reverse grading at the base, with a medium to high accessory lithics content. The maximum average thickness of the deposit in the proximal areas is about 15 m and has been divided into three members: the Basal Member (BM), 2 m thick with four submembers (BMf₁, BMf₂, BMf₃, and BMafl), the Intermediate Member (IM), 10 m thick with two submembers (IMpf and IMaf), and the Upper Member (UM), 3 m thick with four submembers (UMpl, UMsdf, UMwaf, and UMpls).The predominant component of the fall deposits is a white, highly vesiculated pumice with 71% SiO₂ content. Plagioclase is the most abundant mineral followed by 1–3-mm-long biotite phenocrysts. The accessory lithics are lavas mostly of andesitic composition. Their abundance increases toward the uppermost levels of the sequence.We calculate a minimum volume of 8.4 km³ (2.22 km³ dense rock equivalent), for the entire QP deposit. Isopach and isopleth maps show that the IM deposit has an elongated distribution with a NNE–SSW direction, whereas the UM deposit has a circular distribution.We estimate a maximum eruptive column height for the IM of 20 km. Field studies and isopach and isopleth maps indicate that the eruptive column was affected by a strong wind.Previous studies located the QP source in the Las Cumbres crater. However, based on the isopach and isopleth distribution, and the lack of pumice fall deposits inside the Las Cumbres crater, we consider that the QP emission center is located on the west flank of the LCVC, and was buried by its own pumice fall deposits. It coincides with an explosion crater called La Capilla formed during the closing phase of the QP eruption.A ‘pumice fountain’ model is proposed to explain the observed sequence of deposits. According to this model, the material was emitted through a ‘hose-type’ conduit during a monogenetic eruption of rhyolitic composition. This kind of volcanic activity is not extensively reported in the literature.