Projected rainfall and temperature changes over Malaysia at the end of the 21st century based on PRECIS modelling system

This study investigates projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Malaysia by the end of the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B2 emission scenarios using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The PRECIS regional climate model (HadRM3P) is configured in 0.22° × 0.22° horizontal grid resolution and is forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and UKMOHadCM3Q0 global models. The model performance in simulating the present-day climate was assessed by comparing the modelsimulated results to the Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset. Generally, the HadAM3P/PRECIS and HadCM3Q0/PRECIS simulated the spatio-temporal variability structure of both temperature and rainfall reasonably well, albeit with the presence of cold biases. The cold biases appear to be associated with the systematic error in the HadRM3P. The future projection of temperature indicates widespread warming over the entire country by the end of the 21st century. The projected temperature increment ranges from 2.5 to 3.9°C, 2.7 to 4.2°C and 1.7 to 3.1°C for A2, A1B and B2 scenarios, respectively. However, the projection of rainfall at the end of the 21st century indicates substantial spatio-temporal variation with a tendency for drier condition in boreal winter and spring seasons while wetter condition in summer and fall seasons. During the months of December to May, ~20-40% decrease of rainfall is projected over Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo, particularly for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. During the summer months, rainfall is projected to increase by ~20-40% across most regions in Malaysia, especially for A2 and A1B scenarios. The spatio-temporal variations in the projected rainfall can be related to the changes in the weakening monsoon circulations, which in turn alter the patterns of regional moisture convergences in the region.     

Precambrian crustal components,plutonic associations,plate environment of the Hercynian Fold Belt of central Europe: Indications from a Nd and Sr isotopic study

Chichi-jima, Bonin Islands, consists of dominant Eocene submarine volcanic rocks, comprising boninites, andesites and dacites, and subordinate sedimentary rocks. The dacites occur frequently in breccias and pillows overlying a boninite pillow lava sequence. The boninite pillows are intruded by a multiple dike, in which a core boninite is chilled against outer dacites. A density-stratified chamber may have been capped by a dacite magma. The dacites, which can be divided into quartz dacite and quartz-free dacite, are differentiates from the boninite-forming magmas, because they vary continuously in composition from boninites through andesites. The quartz dacites, corresponding to rhyolite in SiO₂, are lower in Na₂O and K₂O than most orogenic dacites. Some of the dacites are characterized by ferropigeonite (Wo_7–16En_23–39Fs_68-54) phenocrysts and are clearly ferrodacite, producing variable amounts of Fs-rich normative pyroxenes. The relation of SiO₂ to total FeO/MgO ratio indicates that many of both types of dacites, with glasses in boninites, are enriched in total FeO despite the strong calc-alkalic affinity of boninites. The crystallization temperature of ferropigeonite with Mg value 30 in a quartz dacite is estimated to be 900° C and that in a quartz-free dacite to be 1050° C, which are unusually high for differentiated silicic rocks. Some Chichi-jima rocks are fresh, having a low ratio of Fe₂O₃ to FeO. On the basis of the experimental study of magmatic ferric-ferrous equilibria at 1 bar, the oxygen fugacities are calculated as 10^–13.6 bars at 900° C for a ferropigeonite quartz dacite and 10^–8.9 bars at 1200° C for a boninite with the lowest Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺. Both values lie below the quartz-fayalite-magnetite buffer line. The boninite series volcanic rocks have preserved low oxygen fugacities as well as high temperatures until the latest differentiation stage. The ferropigeonite phenocrysts have crystallized from the dacite magmas under the conditions of moderately high temperatures, very low oxygen fugacities and high total FeO and SiO₂ concentrations.     

Modeling storm surges associated with super typhoon durian in South China Sea

Super typhoon Durian struck the central Philippines on November 30, 2006 and southern coast of Vietnam on December 5, 2006. The reported maximum wind exceeded 250 km/h, and the central pressure was 904 hPa during the peak of the system. The typhoon brought colossal damage, both in terms of lives and in terms of properties to the Philippines and Vietnam while Thailand and Malaysia were slightly affected. The energy from the high-velocity wind and central pressure drop resulted in the generation of storm surges along the coastal region of the Philippines including its surrounding islands as well as parts of southern Vietnam. In this paper, a numerical 2D model is used to study the oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing by 2006 super typhoon Durian in the coastal regions of the Philippines and Vietnam. The initial study of this model aims to provide some useful insights before it could be used as a coastal disaster prediction system in the region of South China Sea (SCS). The atmospheric forcing for the 2D model, which includes the pressure gradient and the wind field, is generated by an empirical asymmetrical storm model. The simulated results of storm surges due to typhoon Durian at two locations lie in the range of observed data/estimates published by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC).     

Sensitivity of Typhoon Vamei (2001) Simulation to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Using PSU/NCAR MM5

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the numerical simulations of a near equatorial Typhoon Vamei (2001) to various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5). The numerical simulations are conducted on two domains at 45 and 15 km grids nested in a one-way fashion. Four different PBL parameterization schemes including the Blackadar (BLK) scheme, the Burk–Thompson (BURKT) scheme, the NCEP Eta model scheme and the NCEP medium range forecast (MRF) model scheme are investigated. Results indicate that the intensity and propagation track of the simulated near equatorial typhoon system is not very sensitive to the different PBL treatments. The simulated minimum central pressures and the maximum surface wind speeds differ by only 5–6 hPa and 6–8 ms⁻¹, respectively. Larger variations between the simulations occur during the weakening phase of the typhoon system. While all schemes simulated the typhoon with reasonable accuracy, the ETA scheme produces the strongest storm intensity with the largest heat exchanges over the marine environment and the highest warm moisture air content in the PBL around the core of the storm.     

Seasonal circulations in the Malay Peninsula Eastern continental shelf from a wave–tide–circulation coupled model

A wave–tide–circulation coupled model based on Princeton Ocean Model is established to study the seasonal circulation in the Malay Peninsula Eastern Continental Shelf region. The model successfully reconstructs the observed seasonal variation of the circulation in the region, as well as the main currents. The simulated tidal harmonic constants, sea surface temperature, and sea surface height anomaly agree with the observations well. The model results show that the upper-layer circulation in the region is mainly controlled by the monsoon winds, while there are two transitions in spring and fall. An anti-cyclonic eddy is present off the Peninsular Malaysia’s east coast in summer, centered at 5°N and 105.5°E, both in the TOPEX/Poseidon data and in the model. Numerical experiments show that the wind stress curl and bathymetry steering are responsible for its formation.     

Genesis of granitoid batholiths of Peninsular Malaysia and implications for models of crustal evolution: Evidence from a NdSr isotopic and UPb zircon study

Nd, Sr and U-Pb isotopic data for the late Triassic West Coast Province batholiths and Permian to Triassic East Coast Province batholiths of Peninsular Malaysia allow estimates of the ages of the crustal fragments comprising the peninsula to be made. Initial ?_Nd and ?_Sr values for granitoids from the West Coast Province range from ?6 to ?10 and +160(0.716) to +660(0.751) respectively. Nd model ages calculated based on a depleted mantle evolution model (T_DM^Nd) range from 1300 Ma to 1800 Ma and are in general agreement with the mid-Proterozoic upper intersection ages of U-Pb zircon reverse discordia (1500–1700 Ma). Initial ?_Nd and ?_Sr values for granitoids from the East Coast Province range from ?0.8 to ?6 and +10(0.705) to +130(0.714) respectively. Calculated T_DM^Nd ages of 900–1400 Ma for these granitoids are comparable to two U-Pb zircon reverse discordia intercepts that yield 800 Ma and 1350 Ma. The general agreement of U-Pb zircon inheritance ages and T_DM^Nd ages are interpreted to correspond to the Proterozoic ‘crust formation’ ages of the continental fragments represented by the West Coast and East Coast batholithic provinces. Mid-Proterozoic (~ 1300–1900 Ma) ‘crust formation’ ages are commonly shown by other Phanerozoic continental margin plutonic and volcanic belts. The ubiquitous mid-Proterozoic ‘crust formation’ ages and the absence of Archaean signatures suggest voluminous juvenile additions to the continental crust in the mid-Proterozoic. Such ages at continental margins would imply that many continental blocks had achieved very much their present-day extent by the mid-Proterozoic.     

Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in Southeast Asia region and its relationship with atmosphere–ocean variations in Indo-Pacific sector

The Southeast Asia rainfall (SEAR) anomalies depend strongly on phases of El Niño (La Niña). Using an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis, it is shown that the dominant EEOF mode of SEAR anomalies evolves northeastward throughout a period from the summer when El Niño develops to spring the following year when the event weakens. This evolution is consistent with northeastward migration of the ENSO-related anomalous out going radiation field. During boreal summer (winter), the strong ENSO-related anomaly tends to reside in regions south (north) of the equator. The evolution of dominant mode of SEAR anomalies is in tandem with the evolution of ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The strengthening and weakening of “boomerang-shaped” SST in western Pacific, the changing sign of anomalous SST in Java Sea and the warming in Indian Ocean and South China Sea are all part of ENSO-related changes and all are linked to SEAR anomaly. The anomalous low-level circulation associated with ENSO-related SEAR anomaly indicates the strengthening and weakening of two off-equatorial anticyclones, one over the Southern Indian Ocean and the other over the western North Pacific. Together with patterns of El Niño minus La Niña composites of various fields, it is proposed that the northeastward evolution of SEAR anomaly is basically part of the large-scale eastward evolution of ENSO-related signal in the Indo-Pacific sector. The atmosphere–ocean interaction plays an important role in this evolution.     

高浑浊内河悬沙浓度的遥感估测:以中国云南金沙江下游支流为例

山区土地利用和土地覆盖变化对水文过程的影响是人们关注的热点,因为它与洪水或干旱等严重的自然灾害有密切关系。一般认为,森林的清除会引起一个地区水沙量的明显增加。但是,要通过在地面进行观测来测算大河流域泥沙流量是十分困难的,特别在山区和人烟稀少地区更是如此。遥感手段为在这些地区收集相关资料和数据提供了一个有效的途径。在这个研究项目中,我们开发出了基于测量在可见光、近红外光波段的遥感反射系数的高浑浊内陆河流悬沙浓度(SSC)预测方法,并采用了中国云南金沙江下游河流SSC的地面观测值和河水反射光谱的数据进行了校准和检验。 我们在2002年6月龙川江的流量和输沙量比较高的时候开展了野外调查,使用了GER—1500手持光谱仪测量河水的反射光谱。SSC的地面观测值采用标准水样过滤法获取。结果表明,地面观测得到的SSC的变化范围为16～13 000g/m~3,其中间     

How to construct future IDF curves,under changing climate,for sites with scarce rainfall records?

Optimal designs of stormwater systems rely very much on the rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves. As climate has shown significant changes in rainfall characteristics in many regions, the adequacy of the existing IDF curves is called for particularly when the rainfall are much more intense. For data sparse sites/regions, developing IDF curves for the future climate is even challenging. The current practice for such regions is, for example, to ‘borrow’ or ‘interpolate’ data from regions of climatologically similar characteristics. A novel (3‐step) Downscaling‐Comparison‐Derivation (DCD) approach was presented in the earlier study to derive IDF curves for present climate using the extracted Dynamically Downscaled data an ungauged site, Darmaga Station in Java Island, Indonesia and the approach works extremely well. In this study, a well validated (3‐step) DCD approach was applied to develop present‐day IDF curves at stations with short or no rainfall record. This paper presents a new approach in which data are extracted from a high spatial resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM; 30 × 30 km over the study domain) driven by Reanalysis data. A site in Java, Indonesia, is selected to demonstrate the application of this approach. Extremes from projected rainfall (6‐hourly results; ERA40 Reanalysis) are first used to derive IDF curves for three sites (meteorological stations) where IDF curves exist; biases observed resulting from these sites are captured and serve as very useful information in the derivation of present‐day IDF curves for sites with short or no rainfall record. The final product of the present‐day climate‐derived IDF curves fall within a specific range, +38% to +45%. This range allows designers to decide on a value within the lower and upper bounds, normally subjected to engineering, economic, social and environmental concerns. Deriving future IDF curves for Stations with existing IDF curves and ungauged sites with simulation data from RCM driven by global climate model (GCM ECHAM5) (6‐hourly results; A2 emission scenario) have also been presented. The proposed approach can be extended to other emission scenarios so that a bandwidth of uncertainties can be assessed to create appropriate and effective adaptation strategies/measures to address climate change and its impacts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observed Trends in Extreme Temperature over the Klang Valley,Malaysia

This study investigates the recent extreme temperature trends across 19 stations in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, over the period 2006-16. Fourteen extreme index trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, with Sen’s slope as a magnitude estimator. Generally, the annual daily mean temperature, daily mean maximum temperature, and daily mean minimum temperature in the Klang Valley increased significantly, by 0.07°C yr~(-1), 0.07°C yr~(-1)and 0.08°C yr~(-1),respectively. For the warm temperature indices, the results indicated a significant upward trend for the annual maximum of maximum temperature, by 0.09°C yr~(-1), and the annual maximum of minimum temperature, by 0.11°C yr~(-1). The results for the total number of warm days and warm nights showed significant increasing trends of 5.02 d yr~(-1)and 6.92 d yr~(-1),respectively. For the cold temperature indices, there were upward trends for the annual minimum of maximum temperature,by 0.09°C yr~(-1), and the annual minimum of minimum temperature, by 0.03°C yr~(-1), concurrent with the decreases in the total number cold days (TX10P), with-3.80 d yr~(-1), and cold nights (TN10P), with-4.33 d yr~(-1). The 34°C and 37°C summer days results showed significant upward trends of 4.10 d yr~(-1) and 0.25 d yr~(-1), respectively. Overall, these findings showed upward warming trends in the Klang Valley, with the minimum temperature rate increasing more than that of the maximum temperature, especially in urban areas.