On least squares estimation of generalized covariance functions

Least squares estimation (LSE) is theoretically related to quadratic unbiased estimation of variance components. It is argued that these methods of estimation of variance components essentially generalize LSE though they are not formally equivalent.     

Some General Properties of Transverse Motions of the Geostrophic Front

Within the framework of the reduced-gravity model of the ocean taking into account the effect of friction in the Rayleigh form, we study the two-dimensional problem of nonlinear motions of a subsurface front of finite width. We consider the conservation laws and the character of motion of the center-of-mass of the cross section of the front and their variations caused by the losses of energy. For fields with special structure, the problem is reduced to the solution of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. It is shown that the initially geostrophic frontal current decays with time according to a power law. The deviations of the initial state of the front from the state of geostrophic balance result in the generation of superinertial oscillations of the hydrodynamic fields.     

Sunspot photometry and the total solar irradiance deficit measured in 1980 by ACRIM

Until now a simple Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) model was used (e.g. Willsonet al., 1981) to describe the contribution of sunspots to the solar irradiance deficit measurement by ACRIM. In this work we replace this model by a photometry of sunspot pictures for the period of 19 August to 4 September, 1980 taking into account the individual features, like lightbridges or umbral dots, of each spot. The main results of this preliminary analysis are: (1) theA _u/A _p ratios and alsos the values vary in a wide range and are by no means constant as in the PSI model; (2) the general trend of the irradiance deficit from our analysis agrees well with the ACRIM measurements; (3) on some days there are differences of more than 50% between the deficits derived from our measurements and from the PSI model.Paper presented at the 11th Eurpean Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain     

Development and testing of numerical methods for two-way nested air pollution modelling

A new 3-D model REGINA (REGIonal high resolutioN Air pollution model) is under development at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI). The model is based on pieces from several models developed over the last decades at NERI. The aim of the work is to develop a nested model which can operate with very high resolution in both space and time. To fulfill this aim the choice and implementation of accurate numerical methods is crucial. The model will be applied for studying air pollution phenomena (both monitoring, forecasting and scenarios) over Denmark. The present paper is focussed on the modification, implementation and testing of a numerical method for treating the horizontal advection in the model as well as the implementation of two-way nesting techniques. The horizontal transport in the model is solved using an accurate space derivative algorithm. This method is traditionally implemented with periodic boundary conditions, however, this is not an option for nested modelling. A new method for calculating non-periodic boundary conditions has been developed in order to overcome this problem. Extensive testing of the numerical solution of the advection and the coupling of the solution of advection and chemistry in the model using Molenkamp–Crowley rotation tests have been carried out. The results show that the model with the current implementation of numerical methods is suitable for calculating air pollution levels with high resolution.     

Multi-species chemical data assimilation with the Danish Eulerian hemispheric model: system description and verification

Satellite retrievals of atmospheric composition provide a wealth of data on a global scale. These complement results from atmospheric chemistry-transport models (CTMs), and can be combined using data assimilation. We present two assimilation schemes coupled to the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), a three-dimensional, off-line CTM with full photochemistry: a variant on the ensemble Kalman filter and the three-dimensional variational scheme. The aim of this paper is to describe the two schemes and present an initial assessment of their impacts on model skill. Retrievals of multiple atmospheric trace gases are assimilated, namely: NO₂ tropospheric column densities, CH₄ total column densities, and partial column concentrations of O₃, CO and CH₄; these data are retrieved from four satellite sensors. Data for each species are assimilated independently of one another, and other species are only adjusted indirectly via the model’s chemistry and dynamics. Assimilation results are compared with measurements from surface monitoring stations and other satellite retrievals, and preliminary validation results are presented.Reference simulations (without assimilation) grossly underestimate surface CO concentrations, and both assimilation schemes eliminate this large and systematic model bias. The assimilation improves the spatial correlation of modelled CO with surface observations, and improves the spatial correlation between forecasts and retrievals for CO, NO₂ and O₃. Results for CH₄ show a loss of skill due to a mismatch in model bias between two assimilated CH₄ data-sets. Finally, we discuss differences in methodology and results between this paper and a recent study on multi-species chemical data assimilation. Joint optimisation of initial conditions and emission rates offers a promising direction for improving modelled boundary-layer concentrations.     

Rapid invasion of Crassostrea gigas into the German Wadden Sea dominated by larval supply

Invasions of non-indigenous species into coastal habitats have been a frequent phenomenon in the last decades, sometimes with significant impact on the receiving ecosystem. However, the understanding of the entire process and especially the relative importance of larval supply and local recruitment remains unclear. In this study, we simulate the invasion of a benthic invertebrate into a previously uncolonised habitat over several years and validate the results with field data. Therefore, we present field data from a monitoring programme revealing the rapid invasion of the oyster Crassostrea gigas into the East Frisian Wadden Sea, North Sea, between 2003 and 2005. The applied model combines a simple, spatially-explicit population dynamics model for the adult stage with a particle tracking model for the larval stage of the life cycle. Simulation results are able to reproduce the large-scale pattern of the field data and indicate a domination of larval supply on the population dynamics in the early stage of the invasion. Though monitoring and simulations suggest a single larval source outside the study area in the west, the population dynamics in the eastern part is only explainable with an additional source within the study area attributed to an unintentional input of juveniles by mussel fishery. High sensitivities to uncertain parameters result in distinct deviations between monitoring and simulations at particular sites. Especially the impact of site-specific variations of the post-settlement mortality underlines the variability of local recruitment conditions and indicates the need for spatially resolved information for exact predictions.