Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.     

Adiabatic scaling relations of galaxy clusters

The aim of this work is to show that, contrary to popular belief, galaxy clusters are not expected to be self-similar, even when the only energy sources available are gravity and shock-wave heating. In particular, we investigate the scaling relations between mass, luminosity and temperature of galaxy groups and clusters in the absence of radiative processes. Theoretical expectations are derived from a polytropic model of the intracluster medium and compared with the results of high-resolution adiabatic gasdynamical simulations. It is shown that, in addition to the well-known relation between the mass and concentration of the dark matter halo, the effective polytropic index of the gas also varies systematically with cluster mass, and therefore neither the dark matter nor the gas profiles are exactly self-similar. It is remarkable, though, that the effects of concentration and polytropic index tend to cancel each other, leading to scaling relations whose logarithmic slopes roughly match the predictions of the most-basic self-similar models. We provide a phenomenological fit to the relation between polytropic index and concentration, as well as a self-consistent scheme to derive the non-linear scaling relations expected for any cosmology and the best-fitting normalizations of the M – T , L – T and F – T relations appropriate for a Λ cold dark matter universe. The predicted scaling relations reproduce observational data reasonably well for massive clusters, where the effects of cooling and star formation are expected to play a minor role.     

Constraints on dark matter and the shape of the Milky Way dark halo from the 511-keV line

About one year ago, it was speculated that decaying or annihilating light dark matter (LDM) particles could explain the flux and extension of the 511-keV line emission in the Galactic Centre. Here, we present a thorough comparison between theoretical expectations of the Galactic positron distribution within the LDM scenario and observational data from INTEGRAL /SPI. Unlike previous analyses, there is now enough statistical evidence to put tight constraints on the shape of the dark matter (DM) halo of our Galaxy, if the Galactic positrons originate from DM. For annihilating candidates, the best fit to the observed 511-keV emission is provided by a radial density profile with inner logarithmic slope  γ= 1.03 ± 0.04  . In contrast, decaying DM requires a much steeper density profile,  γ > 1.5  , rather disfavoured by both observations and numerical simulations. Within the annihilating LDM scenario, a velocity-independent cross-section would be consistent with the observational data while a cross-section purely proportional to v ² can be rejected at a high confidence level. Assuming the most simplistic model where the Galactic positrons are produced as primaries, we show that the LDM candidate should be a scalar rather than a spin-1/2 particle and obtain a very stringent constraint on the value of the positron production cross-section to explain the 511-keV emission. One consequence is that the value of the fine structure constant α should differ from that recommended in the CODATA (Committee on Data for Science and Technology). This is a very strong test for the LDM scenario and an additional motivation in favour of experiments measuring α directly. Our results finally indicate that an accurate measurement of the shape of the dark halo profile could have a tremendous impact on the determination of the origin of the 511-keV line and vice versa.     

(Near-)real-time orbit determination for GNSS radio occultation processing

The processing of GPS radio occultation measurements for use in numerical weather predictions requires a precise orbit determination (POD) of the host satellite in near-real-time. Making use of data from the GRAS instrument on Metop-A, the performance of different GPS ephemeris products and processing concepts for near-real-time and real-time POD is compared. While previous analyses have focused on the achievable along-track velocity accuracy, this study contributes a systematic comparison of the resulting estimated bending angles. This enables a more rigorous trade-off of different orbit determination methodologies in relation to the end-user needs for atmospheric science products. It is demonstrated that near-real-time GPS orbit and clock products have reached a sufficient quality to determine the Metop-A along-track velocity with an accuracy of better than 0.05 mm/s that was formerly only accessible in post-processing. The resulting bending angles are shown to exhibit standard deviation and bias differences of less than 0.3 % compared with post-processed products up to altitudes of at least 40 km, which is notably better than 1 % accuracy typically assumed for numerical weather predictions in this height regime. Complementary to the analysis of ground-based processing schemes, the potential of autonomous on-board orbit determination is investigated for the first time. Using actual GRAS flight data, it is shown that a 0.5 m 3D rms position accuracy and a 0.2 mm/s along-track velocity accuracy can in fact be obtained in real-time with the currently available GPS broadcast ephemeris quality. Bending angles derived from the simulated real-time processing exhibit a minor performance degradation above tangent point heights of 40 km but negligible differences with respect to ground-based products below this altitude. Onboard orbit determination and, if desired, bending angle computation, can thus enable a further simplification of the ground segment in future radio occultation missions and contribute to reduced product latencies for radio occultation data assimilation in numerical weather predictions.     

Shuffled-cards structure and different P/T conditions in the Sanbagawa metamorphic belt, Sakuma-Tenryu area, central Japan

The Sanbagawa metamorphic terrain of the study area is divided into two units, the Shirakura and Sejiri units. The metamorphic thermal structure is interpreted on the basis of the degree of graphitization (GD) of carbonaceous material in pelitic schists. The areal variations of the metamorphic grade are presented by the distribution of GD calculated using the Lc and d₀₀₂ of carbonaceous material. As a result, the two units are classified into four metamorphic zones, respectively: A₁, A₂, B₁ and B₂ for the Shirakura Unit; and I₁, I₂, II₁ and II₂ for the Sejiri Unit. The metamorphic grades of A₁, A₂, I₁ and I₂ are included in the chlorite zone, and that of B₁, B₂, II₁ and II₂ in the garnet zone of the Sanbagawa metamorphism. The degree of graphitization at the boundary between A₂ and B₁ zones is the same as that between I₂ and II₁ zones. Detailed study on the variation of GD suggests that the present‐day structure of the study area is best interpreted as a model of shuffled‐cards structure. An estimated minimum thickness of a stack of continuous cards is about 25 m. The compositions of garnet in pelitic schists and of amphibole in basic schists are different from those in the identical metamorphic range of the Shirakura and Sejiri units. It is suggested that rocks of the Shirakura Unit were metamorphosed under higher P/T conditions than those of the Sejiri Unit.