基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Implementation of a coupled plastic damage distinct lattice spring model for dynamic crack propagation in geomaterials

This paper studies dynamic crack propagation by employing the distinct lattice spring model (DLSM) and 3‐dimensional (3D) printing technique. A damage‐plasticity model was developed and implemented in a 2D DLSM. Applicability of the damage‐plasticity DLSM was verified against analytical elastic solutions and experimental results for crack propagation. As a physical analogy, dynamic fracturing tests were conducted on 3D printed specimens using the split Hopkinson pressure bar. The dynamic stress intensity factors were recorded, and crack paths were captured by a high‐speed camera. A parametric study was conducted to find the influences of the parameters on cracking behaviors, including initial and peak fracture toughness, crack speed, and crack patterns. Finally, selection of parameters for the damage‐plasticity model was determined through the comparison of numerical predictions and the experimentally observed cracking features.     

A modified numerical model for moisture-salt transport in unsaturated sandy soil under evaporation

Soil salinization, caused by salt migration and accumulation underneath the soil surface, will corrode structures. To analyze the moisture-salt migration and salt precipitation in soil under evaporation conditions, a mathematical model consisting of a series of theoretical equations is briefly presented. The filling effect of precipitated salts on tortuosity factor and evaporation rate are taken into account in relevant equations. Besides, a transition equation to link the solute transport equation before and after salt precipitation is proposed. Meanwhile, a new relative humidity equation deduced from Pitzer ions model is used to modify the vapor transport flux equation. The results show that the calculated values are in good agreement with the published experimental data, especially for the simulation of volume water content and evaporation rate of Toyoura sand, which confirm the reliability and applicability of the proposed model.     

抽油机悬点投影测量仪

油田抽油机的抽油杆幌动幅度过大，是引起抽油杆断裂的一个重要因素，检测这种幌动幅度是防止抽油杆断裂的一种有效手段。设计了一种基于面阵CCD和普通半导体激光器（LD）测量这种幌动的悬点投影测量方法，通过数字卷积滤波，达到了范围为0－40mm，误差＜0.2mm的技术检测指标。     

关于高速滑坡的几个问题

高速滑坡问题是当前工程地质和环境地质学界极为关注的问题。本文对诸如滑体高速滑动所对应的时空界限、滑体滑动过程所产生的热效应以及空气浮托力等高速滑坡产生机制问题进行了初步探讨。     

Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

γ射线暴的logN(>P)～logP分布

本文用简单的宇宙学模型 ,在标准烛光和均匀分布的假设下计算了γ射线暴的logN(>P)～logP分布 (大小谱 ) .在考虑了探测效率修正和死时间修正后 ,由宇宙学模型计算的理论结果和BATSE实测的大小谱没有显著的偏离     

浅论经济增长与物价水平的关系

从交易方程出发，初步分析了经济增长与物价水平的关系，得到了一些有益的结果。     

上扬子地台震旦系铅锌矿床类型及找矿方向

上扬子地台含铅锌矿地层主要为震旦系。震旦系在上扬子地台主要发育上统灯影组,次有下统陡山沱组。将上扬子地台震旦系铅锌矿床成因划分为一级为叠生矿床,二级为层控矿床,三级为热水沉积改造矿床和热水沉积再造矿床四级类型,该类型按铅锌比例进一步划分为富铅型、富锌型、铅锌共生型。研究区内最重要的铅锌矿床成因类型为南郑马元、会东大梁子铅锌矿为代表的富锌型。陕西南郑、紫阳—镇坪地区,湖北武当、神农架、黄陵地区,以及地台西缘的安宁河、甘洛—小江、峨边—寻甸等地区的震旦系是寻找铅锌矿的最有利地段。     

Application of Grain Size Analysis to Study Sedimentary Environment of Sand Dune in the Vicinity of Tumen River

The dunes in estuary of Tumen River in China lie to the area between the Jiushaping and Fangchuan in the left bank of Tumen River (Fig.1). The dis-tance is about 15～20 km between the dunes and the coast. It ranges from China to D. P. R. Korea and Russia. The range of the height of dunes is about 15～20 m and the width is 100～200 m. By the re-connaissance, we protracted 9 section planes of the dunes and collected 40 sand samples of the dunes, and identified the sedimentary environment …