Magnetic Flux Cancellation Observed in the Sunspot Moat

In this paper we study the evolution of magnetic fields of a 1F/2.4C solar flare and following magnetic flux cancellation. The data are Big Bear Solar Observatory and SOHO/MDI observations of active region NOAA 8375. The active region produced a multitude of subflares, many of them being clustered along the moat boundary in the area with mixed polarity magnetic fields. The study indicates a possible connection between the flare and the flux cancellation. The cancellation rate, defined from the data, was found to be 3×10¹⁹ Mx h^–1. We observed strong upward directed plasma flows at the cancellation site. Suggesting that the cancellation is a result of reconnection process, we also found a reconnection rate of 0.5 km s^–1, which is a significant fraction of Alfvén speed. The reconnection rate indicates a regime of fast photospheric reconnection happening during the cancellation.     

The evolution of vector magnetic field associated with major flares in NOAA AR10656

In this paper, we study the evolution of vector magnetic field of AR 10656 by using the observations of Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS, China) and Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO, USA). The magnetic flux emergence and cancellation, and thus, magnetic nonpotential changes, are associated with the major flares in this active region. Compared with some other super-active regions, the evolution of magnetic morphologies and non-potentialities are relatively gradual, and thus the energy transportation and release are relatively slow. This gradual process may result in the recurrent flares of AR 10656.     

Statistical Assessment of Photospheric Magnetic Features in Imminent Solar Flare Predictions

In this study we use the ordinal logistic regression method to establish a prediction model, which estimates the probability for each solar active region to produce X-, M-, or C-class flares during the next 1-day time period. The three predictive parameters are (1) the total unsigned magnetic flux T _flux, which is a measure of an active region’s size, (2) the length of the strong-gradient neutral line L _gnl, which describes the global nonpotentiality of an active region, and (3) the total magnetic dissipation E _diss, which is another proxy of an active region’s nonpotentiality. These parameters are all derived from SOHO MDI magnetograms. The ordinal response variable is the different level of solar flare magnitude. By analyzing 174 active regions, L _gnl is proven to be the most powerful predictor, if only one predictor is chosen. Compared with the current prediction methods used by the Solar Monitor at the Solar Data Analysis Center (SDAC) and NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the ordinal logistic model using L _gnl, T _flux, and E _diss as predictors demonstrated its automatic functionality, simplicity, and fairly high prediction accuracy. To our knowledge, this is the first time the ordinal logistic regression model has been used in solar physics to predict solar flares.     

The Relationship between Magnetic Gradient and Magnetic Shear in Five Super Active Regions Producing Great Flares

We study the magnetic structure of five well-known active regions that produced great flares (X5 or larger). The six flares under investigation are the X12 flare on 1991 June 9 in AR 6659, the X5.7 flare on 2000 July 14 in AR 9077, the X5.6 flare on 2001 April 6 in AR 9415, the X5.3 flare on 2001 August 25 in AR 9591, the X17 flare on 2003 October 28 and the X10 flare on 2003 October 29, both in AR 10486. The last five events had corresponding LASCO observations and were all associated with Halo CMEs. We analyzed vector magne-tograms from Big Bear Solar Observatory, Huairou Solar Observing Station, Marshall Space Right Center and Mees Solar Observatory. In particular, we studied the magnetic gradient derived from line-of-sight magnetograms and magnetic shear derived from vector magne-tograms, and found an apparent correlation between these two parameters at a level of about 90%. We found that the magnetic gradient could be a better proxy than the shear for predicting where a major flare might occur: all six flares occurred in neutral lines with maximum gradient. The mean gradient of the flaring neutral lines ranges from 0.14 to 0.50 G km-1, 2.3 to 8 times the average value for all the neutral lines in the active regions. If we use magnetic shear as the proxy, the flaring neutral line in at least one, possibly two, of the six events would be mis-identified.     

The Automatic Predictability of Super Geomagnetic Storms from halo CMEs associated with Large Solar Flares

We investigate the relationship between magnetic structures of coronal mass ejection (CME) source regions and geomagnetic storms, in particular, the super storms when the D _st index decreases below −200 nT. By examining all full halo CMEs that erupted between 1996 and 2004, we selected 73 events associated with M-class and X-class solar flares, which have a clearly identifiable source region. By analyzing daily full-disk MDI magnetograms, we found that the horizontal gradient of the line-of-sight magnetic field is a viable parameter to identify a flaring magnetic neutral line and thus can be used to predict the possible source region of CMEs. The accuracy of this prediction is about 75%, especially for those associated with X-class flares (up to 89%). The mean orientation of the magnetic structures of source regions was derived and characterized by the orientation angle θ, which is defined to be ≤ 90^∘ in the case of the southward orientation and ≥ 90^∘, when the magnetic structure is northwardly oriented. The orientation angle was calculated as the median orientation angle of extrapolated field lines relative to the flaring neutral line. We report that for about 92% of super storms (12 out of 13 events) the orientation angle was found to be southward. In the case of intense and moderate storms (D _st≥ −200 nT), the relationship is less pronounced (70%, 21 out of 30 events). Our findings demonstrate that the approach presented in this paper can be used to perform an automatic prediction of the occurrence of large X-class flares and super geomagnetic storms.     

Physical Characteristics of Umbral Dots Derived from a High-Resolution Observations

Solar Physics - We study the features of the magnetic field variations within the 2011 June 7 eruptive event that includes a large filament eruption, a flare, and a CME formation. The magnetic...     

An Overview of Existing Algorithms for Resolving the 180° Ambiguity in Vector Magnetic Fields: Quantitative Tests with Synthetic Data

We report here on the present state-of-the-art in algorithms used for resolving the 180° ambiguity in solar vector magnetic field measurements. With present observations and techniques, some assumption must be made about the solar magnetic field in order to resolve this ambiguity. Our focus is the application of numerous existing algorithms to test data for which the correct answer is known. In this context, we compare the algorithms quantitatively and seek to understand where each succeeds, where it fails, and why. We have considered five basic approaches: comparing the observed field to a reference field or direction, minimizing the vertical gradient of the magnetic pressure, minimizing the vertical current density, minimizing some approximation to the total current density, and minimizing some approximation to the field's divergence. Of the automated methods requiring no human intervention, those which minimize the square of the vertical current density in conjunction with an approximation for the vanishing divergence of the magnetic field show the most promise.     

Parameters of the Magnetic Flux inside Coronal Holes

The parameters of the magnetic flux distribution inside low-latitude coronal holes (CHs) were analyzed. A statistical study of 44 CHs based on Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/MDI full disk magnetograms and SOHO/EIT 284?Å images showed that the density of the net magnetic flux, B _net, does not correlate with the associated solar wind speeds, V _x . Both the area and net flux of CHs correlate with the solar wind speed and the corresponding spatial Pearson correlation coefficients are 0.75 and 0.71, respectively. A possible explanation for the low correlation between B _net and V _x is proposed. The observed non-correlation might be rooted in the structural complexity of the magnetic field. As a measure of the complexity of the magnetic field, the filling factor, f(r), was calculated as a function of spatial scales. In CHs, f(r) was found to be nearly constant at scales above 2 Mm, which indicates a monofractal structural organization and smooth temporal evolution. The magnitude of the filling factor is 0.04 from the Hinode SOT/SP data and 0.07 from the MDI/HR data. The Hinode data show that at scales smaller than 2 Mm, the filling factor decreases rapidly, which means a multifractal structure and highly intermittent, burst-like energy release regime. The absence of the necessary complexity in CH magnetic fields at scales above 2 Mm seems to be the most plausible reason why the net magnetic flux density does not seem to be related to the solar wind speed: the energy release dynamics, needed for solar wind acceleration, appears to occur at small scales below 1 Mm.     

Photospheric Plasma Flows Around a Solar Spot

We study photospheric plasma flows in an active region NOAA 8375, by using uninterrupted high-resolution SOHO/MDI observations (137 intensity images, 44 hours of observations). The active region consists of a stable large spot and many small spots and pores. Analyzing horizontal flow maps, obtained with local correlation tracking technique, we found a system of stable persistent plasma flows existing in the active region. The flows start on either side of the sunspot and extend over 100′′ to the east. Our measurements show that the speed of small sunspots and pores, averaged over 44 hours, was about 100 m s⁻¹, which corresponds to root-mean-square longitudinal drifts of sunspots of 0.67°–0.76° day⁻¹. We conclude that these large-scale flows are due to faster proper motion of the large sunspot relative to the ambient photospheric plasma. We suggest that the flows may be a good carrier to transport magnetic flux from eroding sunspots into the outer part of an active region.