An Event-Based Verification Scheme for the Real-Time Flare Detection System at Kanzelhöhe Observatory

In the framework of the Space Situational Awareness program of the European Space Agency (ESA/SSA), an automatic flare detection system was developed at Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO). The system has been in operation since mid-2013. The event detection algorithm was upgraded in September 2017. All data back to 2014 was reprocessed using the new algorithm. In order to evaluate both algorithms, we apply verification measures that are commonly used for forecast validation. In order to overcome the problem of rare events, which biases the verification measures, we introduce a new event-based method. We divide the timeline of the H\(\upalpha\) observations into positive events (flaring period) and negative events (quiet period), independent of the length of each event. In total, 329 positive and negative events were detected between 2014 and 2016. The hit rate for the new algorithm reached 96% (just five events were missed) and a false-alarm ratio of 17%. This is a significant improvement of the algorithm, as the original system had a hit rate of 85% and a false-alarm ratio of 33%. The true skill score and the Heidke skill score both reach values of 0.8 for the new algorithm; originally, they were at 0.5. The mean flare positions are accurate within \({\pm}\,1\) heliographic degree for both algorithms, and the peak times improve from a mean difference of \(1.7\pm 2.9~\mbox{minutes}\) to \(1.3\pm 2.3~\mbox{minutes}\). The flare start times that had been systematically late by about 3 minutes as determined by the original algorithm, now match the visual inspection within \(-0.47\pm 4.10~\mbox{minutes}\).     

On Flare-CME Characteristics from Sun to Earth Combining Remote-Sensing Image Data with <Emphasis Type="Italic">In Situ</Emphasis> Measurements Supported by Modeling

We analyze the well-observed flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) from 1 October 2011 (SOL2011-10-01T09:18) covering the complete chain of effects – from Sun to Earth – to better understand the dynamic evolution of the CME and its embedded magnetic field. We study in detail the solar surface and atmosphere associated with the flare and CME using the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and ground-based instruments. We also track the CME signature off-limb with combined extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light data from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). By applying the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) reconstruction method and total mass to stereoscopic STEREO-SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) coronagraph data, we track the temporal and spatial evolution of the CME in the interplanetary space and derive its geometry and 3D mass. We combine the GCS and Lundquist model results to derive the axial flux and helicity of the magnetic cloud (MC) from in situ measurements from Wind. This is compared to nonlinear force-free (NLFF) model results, as well as to the reconnected magnetic flux derived from the flare ribbons (flare reconnection flux) and the magnetic flux encompassed by the associated dimming (dimming flux). We find that magnetic reconnection processes were already ongoing before the start of the impulsive flare phase, adding magnetic flux to the flux rope before its final eruption. The dimming flux increases by more than 25% after the end of the flare, indicating that magnetic flux is still added to the flux rope after eruption. Hence, the derived flare reconnection flux is most probably a lower limit for estimating the magnetic flux within the flux rope. We find that the magnetic helicity and axial magnetic flux are lower in the interplanetary space by ～?50% and 75%, respectively, possibly indicating an erosion process. A CME mass increase of 10% is observed over a range of \({\sim}\,4\,\mbox{--}\,20~\mathrm{R}_{\odot }\). The temporal evolution of the CME-associated core-dimming regions supports the scenario that fast outflows might supply additional mass to the rear part of the CME.     

The Interaction of Successive Coronal Mass Ejections: A Review

We present a review of the different aspects associated with the interaction of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the corona and inner heliosphere, focusing on the initiation of series of CMEs, their interaction in the heliosphere, the particle acceleration associated with successive CMEs, and the effect of compound events on Earth’s magnetosphere. The two main mechanisms resulting in the eruption of series of CMEs are sympathetic eruptions, when one eruption triggers another, and homologous eruptions, when a series of similar eruptions originates from one active region. CME?–?CME interaction may also be associated with two unrelated eruptions. The interaction of successive CMEs has been observed remotely in coronagraphs (with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment – LASCO – since the early 2000s) and heliospheric imagers (since the late 2000s), and inferred from in situ measurements, starting with early measurements in the 1970s. The interaction of two or more CMEs is associated with complex phenomena, including magnetic reconnection, momentum exchange, the propagation of a fast magnetosonic shock through a magnetic ejecta, and changes in the CME expansion. The presence of a preceding CME a few hours before a fast eruption has been found to be connected with higher fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs), while CME?–?CME interaction occurring in the corona is often associated with unusual radio bursts, indicating electron acceleration. Higher suprathermal population, enhanced turbulence and wave activity, stronger shocks, and shock?–?shock or shock?–?CME interaction have been proposed as potential physical mechanisms to explain the observed associated SEP events. When measured in situ, CME?–?CME interaction may be associated with relatively well organized multiple-magnetic cloud events, instances of shocks propagating through a previous magnetic ejecta or more complex ejecta, when the characteristics of the individual eruptions cannot be easily distinguished. CME?–?CME interaction is associated with some of the most intense recorded geomagnetic storms. The compression of a CME by another and the propagation of a shock inside a magnetic ejecta can lead to extreme values of the southward magnetic field component, sometimes associated with high values of the dynamic pressure. This can result in intense geomagnetic storms, but can also trigger substorms and large earthward motions of the magnetopause, potentially associated with changes in the outer radiation belts. Future in situ measurements in the inner heliosphere by Solar Probe+ and Solar Orbiter may shed light on the evolution of CMEs as they interact, by providing opportunities for conjunction and evolutionary studies.     

Coronal Holes and Solar Wind High-Speed Streams: II. Forecasting the Geomagnetic Effects

We present a simple method of forecasting the geomagnetic storms caused by high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind. The method is based on the empirical correlation between the coronal hole area/position and the value of the Dst index, which is established in a period of low interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) activity. On average, the highest geomagnetic activity, i.e., the minimum in Dst, occurs four days after a low-latitude coronal hole (CH) crosses the central meridian. The amplitude of the Dst dip is correlated with the CH area and depends on the magnetic polarity of the CH due to the Russell – McPherron effect. The Dst variation may be predicted by employing the expression Dst(t)=(−65±25×cos λ)[A(t ^*)]^0.5, where A(t ^*) is the fractional CH area measured in the central-meridian slice [−10°,10°] of the solar disc, λ is the ecliptic longitude of the Earth, ± stands for positive/negative CH polarity, and t−t ^*=4 days. In periods of low ICME activity, the proposed expression provides forecasting of the amplitude of the HSS-associated Dst dip to an accuracy of ≈30%. However, the time of occurrence of the Dst minimum cannot be predicted to better than ±2 days, and consequently, the overall mean relative difference between the observed and calculated daily values of Dst ranges around 50%.     

Statistical Analysis of Large-Scale EUV Waves Observed by STEREO/EUVI

We statistically analyzed the kinematical evolution and wave pulse characteristics of 60 strong large-scale EUV wave events that occurred during January 2007 to February 2011 with the STEREO twin spacecraft. For the start velocity, the arithmetic mean is 312±115 km?s^?1 (within a range of 100?–?630 km?s^?1). For the mean (linear) velocity, the arithmetic mean is 254±76 km?s^?1 (within a range of 130?–?470 km?s^?1). 52 % of all waves under study show a distinct deceleration during their propagation (a≤?50 m?s^?2), the other 48 % are consistent with a constant speed within the uncertainties (?50≤a≤50 m?s^?2). The start velocity and the acceleration are strongly anticorrelated with c≈?0.8, i.e. initially faster events undergo stronger deceleration than slower events. The (smooth) transition between constant propagation for slow events and deceleration in faster events occurs at an EUV wave start-velocity of v≈230 km?s^?1, which corresponds well to the fast-mode speed in the quiet corona. These findings provide strong evidence that the EUV waves under study are indeed large-amplitude fast-mode MHD waves. This interpretation is also supported by the correlations obtained between the peak velocity and the peak amplitude, impulsiveness, and build-up time of the disturbance. We obtained the following association rates of EUV wave events with other solar phenomena: 95 % are associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), 74 % to a solar flare, 15 % to interplanetary type II bursts, and 22 % to coronal type II bursts. These findings are consistent with the interpretation that the associated CMEs are the driving agents of the EUV waves.     

Solar Energetic Particles and Associated EIT Disturbances in Solar Cycle 23

We explore the link between solar energetic particles (SEPs) observed at 1 AU and large-scale disturbances propagating in the solar corona, named after the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) as EIT waves, which trace the lateral expansion of a coronal mass ejection (CME). A comprehensive search for SOHO/EIT waves was carried out for 179 SEP events during Solar Cycle 23 (1997?–?2006). 87 % of the SEP events were found to be accompanied by EIT waves. In order to test if the EIT waves play a role in the SEP acceleration, we compared their extrapolated arrival time at the footpoint of the Parker spiral with the particle onset in the 26 eastern SEP events that had no direct magnetic connection to the Earth. We find that the onset of proton events was generally consistent with this scenario. However, in a number of cases the first near-relativistic electrons were detected too early. Furthermore, the electrons had in general only weakly anisotropic pitch-angle distributions. This poses a problem for the idea that the SEPs were accelerated by the EIT wave or in any other spatially confined region in the low corona. The presence of weak electron anisotropies in SEP events from the eastern hemisphere suggests that transport processes in interplanetary space, including cross-field diffusion, play a role in giving the SEPs access to a broad range of helio-longitudes.     

A Flare-Generated Shock during a Coronal Mass Ejection on 24 December 1996

We present a multiwavelength study of the large-scale coronal disturbances associated with the CME?–?flare event recorded on 24 December 1996. The kinematics of the shock wave signature, the type II radio burst, is analyzed and compared with the flare evolution and the CME kinematics. We employ radio dynamic spectra, position of the Nançay Radioheliograph sources, and LASCO-C1 observations, providing detailed study of this limb event. The obtained velocity of the shock wave is significantly higher than the contemporaneous CME velocity (1000 and 235 km?s^?1, respectively). Moreover, since the main acceleration phase of the CME took place 10?–?20 min after the shock wave was launched, we conclude that the shock wave on 24 December 1996 was probably not driven by the CME. However, the shock wave was closely associated with the flare impulsive phase, indicating that it was ignited by the energy release in the flare.     

Assessing the Constrained Harmonic Mean Method for Deriving the Kinematics of ICMEs with a Numerical Simulation

In this study we use a numerical simulation of an artificial coronal mass ejection (CME) to validate a method for calculating propagation directions and kinematical profiles of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). In this method observations from heliospheric images are constrained with in-situ plasma and field data at 1 AU. These data are used to convert measured ICME elongations into distance by applying the harmonic mean approach, which assumes a spherical shape of the ICME front. We used synthetic white-light images, similar to those observed by STEREO-A/HI, for three different separation angles between remote and in-situ spacecraft of 30^°, 60^°, and 90^°. To validate the results of the method, the images were compared to the apex speed profile of the modeled ICME, as obtained from a top view. This profile reflects the “true” apex kinematics because it is not affected by scattering or projection effects. In this way it is possible to determine the accuracy of the method for revealing ICME propagation directions and kinematics. We found that the direction obtained by the constrained harmonic mean method is not very sensitive to the separation angle (30^° sep: ?=W7; 60^° sep: ?=W12; 90^° sep: ?=W15; true dir.: E0/W0). For all three cases the derived kinematics agree relatively well with the real kinematics. The best consistency is obtained for the 30^° case, while with growing separation angle the ICME speed at 1 AU is increasingly overestimated (30^° sep: ΔV _arr≈??50 km?s^?1, 60^° sep: ΔV _arr≈+?75 km?s^?1, 90^° sep: ΔV _arr≈+?125 km?s^?1). Especially for future L₄/L₅ missions, the 60^° separation case is highly interesting in order to improve space-weather forecasts.     

Formation of Coronal Shock Waves

Magnetosonic wave formation driven by an expanding cylindrical piston is numerically simulated to obtain better physical insight into the initiation and evolution of large-scale coronal waves caused by coronal eruptions. Several very basic initial configurations are employed to analyze intrinsic characteristics of MHD wave formation that do not depend on specific properties of the environment. It turns out that these simple initial configurations result in piston/wave morphologies and kinematics that reproduce common characteristics of coronal waves. In the initial stage, the wave and the expanding source region cannot be clearly resolved; i.e. a certain time is needed before the wave detaches from the piston. Thereafter, it continues to travel as what is called a “simple wave.” During the acceleration stage of the source region inflation, the wave is driven by the piston expansion, so its amplitude and phase-speed increase, whereas the wavefront profile steepens. At a given point, a discontinuity forms in the wavefront profile; i.e. the leading edge of the wave becomes shocked. The time/distance required for the shock formation is shorter for a more impulsive source-region expansion. After the piston stops, the wave amplitude and phase speed start to decrease. During the expansion, most of the source region becomes strongly rarefied, which reproduces the coronal dimming left behind the eruption. However, the density increases at the source-region boundary, and stays enhanced even after the expansion stops, which might explain stationary brightenings that are sometimes observed at the edges of the erupted coronal structure. Also, in the rear of the wave a weak density depletion develops, trailing the wave, which is sometimes observed as weak transient coronal dimming. Finally, we find a well-defined relationship between the impulsiveness of the source-region expansion and the wave amplitude and phase speed. The results for the cylindrical piston are also compared with the outcome for a planar wave that is formed by a one-dimensional piston, to find out how different geometries affect the evolution of the wave.     

Periodic Appearance of Coronal Holes and the Related Variation of Solar Wind Parameters

We compared the variability of coronal hole (CH) areas (determined from daily GOES/SXI images) with solar wind (daily ACE data) and geomagnetic parameters for the time span 25 January 2005 until 11 September 2005 (late declining phase of solar cycle 23). Applying wavelet spectral analysis, a clear 9-day period is found in the CH time series. The GOES/SXI image sequence suggests that this periodic variation is caused by a mutual triangular distribution of CHs ∼120° apart in longitude. From solar wind parameters a 9-day periodicity was obtained as well, simultaneously with the 9-day period in the CH area time series. These findings provide strong evidence that the 9-day period in solar wind parameters, showing up as higher harmonic of the solar rotation frequency, is caused by the “periodic” longitudinal distribution of CHs on the Sun recurring for several solar rotations. The shape of the wavelet spectrum from the Dst index matches only weakly with that from the CH areas and is more similar to the wavelet spectrum of the solar wind magnetic field magnitude. The distinct 9-day period does not show up in sunspot group areas which gives further evidence that the solar wind modulation is strongly related to CH areas but not to active region complexes. The wavelet power spectra for the whole ACE data range (∼1998 – 2006) suggest that the 9-day period is not a singular phenomenon occurring only during a specific time range close to solar minimum but is occasionally also present during the maximum and decay phase of solar cycle 23. The main periods correspond to the solar rotation (27^d) as well as to the second (13.5^d) and third (9^d) harmonic. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.