Interhemispheric flow of thermal plasma in a closed magnetic flux tube at mid-latitudes under sunspot minimum conditions

The coupled H⁺ and O⁺ time-dependent continuity and momentum equations are solved within a region of the L = 3 magnetic flux tube lying between (and including) the F2-layers of conjugate hemispheres. The method of solution is an extended and modified version of the Murphy et al. (1976) method. The model is used to study the coupling between the F2-layers of conjugate hemispheres during magnetically quiet periods.The results of the calculations strongly indicate that the protonosphere acts as a reservoir, with variable H⁺ content, which prevents direct coupling between the F2-layers of conjugate hemispheres. However there is generally a significant interhemispheric flow of plasma. This flow is caused by conditions in the summer and winter topside ionospheres and it maintains continuity in the plasma concentration within the protonosphere. There are times when the direction of flow is from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. It is suggested that maintenance of the winter F2-layer at night is not assisted directly by the F2-layer of the conjugate summer hemisphere.It is shown that during the first few days of protonosphere replenishment after a magnetic storm there is an upflow of H⁺ in the topside ionosphere at all times in the summer hemisphere. There is also an upflow of H⁺ during the daytime in both hemispheres. A comparison with the results obtained when the interhemispheric H⁺ flux is held permanently at zero shows that both F2-layers are little affected by the interhemispheric H⁺ flux. Nevertheless both F2-layers are affected by the H⁺ tube content of the protonosphere. When the H⁺ flux at 1000 km in one hemisphere is much greater than the H⁺ flux at 1000 km in the conjugate hemisphere, there is a corresponding signature in the interhemispheric H⁺ flux.The results suggest that there is insufficient time between magnetic storms for complete replenishment of the protonosphere to occur.     

The El Salvador earthquakes of January and February 2001: context, characteristics and implications for seismic risk

The small Central American republic of El Salvador has experienced, on average, one destructive earthquake per decade during the last hundred years. The latest events occurred on 13 January and 13 February 2001, with magnitudes M_w 7.7 and 6.6, respectively. The two events, which were of different tectonic origin, follow the patterns of the seismicity of the region although neither event has a known precedent in the earthquake catalogue in terms of size and location. The earthquakes caused damage to thousands of traditionally built houses and triggered hundreds of landslides, which were the main causes of fatalities. The earthquakes have clearly demonstrated trends of increasing seismic risk in El Salvador due to rapid population expansion in areas of high shaking and landslide hazard, exacerbated by deforestation and uncontrolled urbanisation. The institutional mechanisms required for the control of land use and building practice are very weak and present a major obstacle to risk mitigation.     

Understanding governance and networks: EU-US interactions and the regulation of genetically modified organisms

EU-US (European Union-United States) interactions in relation to the regulation of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been examined in detail in recent years. To do this scholars have tended to focus on a small number of high profile processes, such as the formal complaint of the US to the World Trade Organisation regarding the regulation of GMOs in the Europe. It is important to analyse developments of this kind but overemphasis on them has also lead to a distorted view of the case and a failure to appreciate the significance of other, less visible, types of interaction. In this paper we focus instead on trying to understand the roles played by various EU-US transnational networks—The Transatlantic Business Dialogue, The Transatlantic Economic Partnership, The Transatlantic Consumer Dialogue, The Transatlantic Environmental Dialogue and the EU-US Consultative Forum on Biotechnology. These networks have been trying to shape the regulation of GMOs in both jurisdictions since the mid 1990s. By analysing them through a ‘governance lens’ we find that we can better understand EU-US interactions and the dynamics and influences around the regulation of GMOs. This gives us valuable insights into processes of contemporary governance.     

Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations

Large ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations are required to explore modelling uncertainty and make probabilistic predictions of future transient climate change at regional scales. These are not yet computationally feasible so we have developed a technique to emulate the response of such an ensemble by scaling equilibrium patterns of climate change derived from much cheaper “slab” model ensembles in which the atmospheric component of an AOGCM is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean. Climate feedback parameters are diagnosed for each member of a slab model ensemble and used to drive an energy balance model (EBM) to predict the time-dependent response of global surface temperature expected for different combinations of uncertain AOGCM parameters affecting atmospheric, land and sea-ice processes. The EBM projections are then used to scale normalised patterns of change derived for each slab member, and hence emulate the response of the relevant atmospheric model version when coupled to a dynamic ocean, in response to a 1% per annum increase in CO₂. The emulated responses are validated by comparison with predictions from a 17 member ensemble of AOGCM simulations, constructed from variants of HadCM3 using the same parameter combinations as 17 members of the slab model ensemble. Cross-validation permits estimation of the spatial and temporal dependence of emulation error, and also allows estimation of a correction field to correct discrepancies between the scaled equilibrium patterns and the transient response, reducing the emulation error. Emulated transient responses and their associated errors are obtained from the slab ensemble for 129 pseudo-HadCM3 versions containing multiple atmospheric parameter perturbations. These are combined to produce regional frequency distributions for the transient response of annual surface temperature change and boreal winter precipitation change. The technique can be extended to any surface climate variable demonstrating a scaleable, approximately linear response to forcing.     

Using Remote Sensing to Assess Russian Forest Fire Carbon Emissions

Russian boreal forests are subject to frequent wildfires. The resulting combustion of large amounts of biomass not only transforms forest vegetation, but it also creates significant carbon emissions that total, according to some authors, from 35–94 Mt C per year. These carbon emissions from forest fires should be considered an important part of the forest ecosystem carbon balance and a significant influence on atmospheric trace gases. In this paper we discuss a new method to assess forest fire damage. This method is based on using multi-spectral high-resolution satellite images, large-scale aerial photography, and declassified images obtained from the space-borne national security systems. A normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) difference image was produced from pre- and post-fire satellite images from SPOT/HRVIR and RESURS-O/MSU-E images. A close relationship was found between values of the NDVI difference image and forest damage level. High-resolution satellite data and large-scale aerial-photos were used to calibrate the NDVI-derived forest damage map. The method was used for mapping of forest fire extent and damage and for estimating carbon emissions from burned forest areas.     

The size, mass, and composition of plastic debris in the western North Atlantic Ocean

This study reports the first inventory of physical properties of individual plastic debris in the North Atlantic. We analyzed 748 samples for size, mass, and material composition collected from surface net tows on 11 expeditions from Cape Cod, Massachusetts to the Caribbean Sea between 1991 and 2007. Particles were mostly fragments less than 10 mm in size with nearly all lighter than 0.05 g. Material densities ranged from 0.808 to 1.24 g ml⁻¹, with about half between 0.97 and 1.04 g ml⁻¹, a range not typically found in virgin plastics. Elemental analysis suggests that samples in this density range are consistent with polypropylene and polyethylene whose densities have increased, likely due to biofouling. Pelagic densities varied considerably from that of beach plastic debris, suggesting that plastic particles are modified during their residence at sea. These analyses provide clues in understanding particle fate and potential debris sources, and address ecological implications of pelagic plastic debris.     

QUEST on DASI: a South Pole CMB polarization experiment

QUEST on DASI is a ground-based, high-sensitivity, high-resolution (ℓ_max2500) experiment designed to map CMB polarization at 100 and 150 GHz and to measure the power spectra from E-modes, B-modes from lensing of the CMB, and B-modes from primordial gravitational waves. The experiment comprises a 2.6 m Cassegrain optical system, equipped with an array of 62 polarization-sensitive bolometers (PSBs), located at the South Pole. The instrument is designed to minimize systematic effects; features include differencing of pairs of orthogonal PSBs within a single feed, a rotatable achromatic waveplate, and axisymmetric rotatable optics. In addition the South Pole location allows both repeatable and highly controlled observations. QUEST on DASI will commence operation in early 2005.     

The Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front: physical and biological coupling at South Georgia

The coupling of physics and biology was examined along a 160 km long transect running out from the north coast of South Georgia Island and crossing the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF) during late December 2000. Surface and near surface potential TS properties indicated the presence of three water types: a near-shore group of stations characterised by water which became progressively warmer and fresher closer to South Georgia, an offshore grouping in which sea surface temperatures and those at the winter water level were relatively warm (1.8°C and 0.5°C, respectively), and a third in which surface and winter water temperatures were cooler and reflected the presence of the SACCF. The transect bisected the SACCF twice, revealing that it was flowing in opposite directions, north-westward closest to South Georgia and south-eastwards at its furthest point from the island. The innermost limb was a narrow intense feature located just off the shelf break in 2000–3500 m of water and in which rapid surface baroclinic velocities (up to 35 cm s⁻¹) were encountered. Offshore in the outermost limb, shown subsequently to be a mesoscale eddy that had meandered south from the retroflected limb of the SACCF, flow was broader and slower with peak velocities around 20 cm s⁻¹. Chlorophyll a biomass was generally low (<1 mg m⁻³) over much of the transect but increased dramatically in the region of the innermost limb of the SACCF, where a deepening of the surface mixed layer was coincident with a subsurface chlorophyll maximum (7.4 mg m⁻³) and elevated concentrations down to 100 m. The bloom was coincident with depleted nutrient concentrations, particularly silicate, nitrate and phosphate, and although ammonium concentrations were locally depleted the bloom lay within an elevated band (up to 1.5 mmol m⁻³) associated with the frontal jet. Increased zooplankton abundance, higher copepod body carbon mass and egg production rates all showed a strong spatial integrity with the front. The population structure of the copepods Calanoides acutus and Rhincalanus gigas at stations within the front suggested that rather than simply resulting from entrainment and concentration within the jet, increased copepod abundance was the result of development in situ. Estimates of bloom duration, based on silicate and carbon budget calculations, set the likely duration between 82 and 122 d, a figure supported by the development schedule of the two copepod species. Given this timescale, model outputs from FRAM and OCCAM indicated that particles that occurred on the north side of South Georgia in December would have been in the central-southern Scotia Sea 2–3 months earlier, probably in sea ice affected regions.