Evidence of recent climatic anomalies at Trieste (Italy)

A recent noticeable climatic anomaly in some meteomarine quantities is analysed based on observations during the period March 1, 1971-February 28, 1993 taken in Trieste (Italy). Marked deviations from the normal values of the coupled quantities atmospheric pressure-solar irradiance and atmospheric pressure-sea level elevation, during the last 22 years, are analysed. The procedures used bring out a clear and persistent configuration of high pressure, high irradiance and low sea level from 1989 on, previously unmatched.     

Modeling of Rayleigh waves dispersion in the Sannio region (Southern Italy) from seismic active refraction data

Short period surface waves, recorded during a seismic refractionsurvey in the Sannio region (Southern Italy), have been modeled to infera shallow velocity model for the area. Based on the decrease of resolutionwith depth, due to the bias on group velocity estimates arising frominterference of the Rayleigh waves with higher modes, we carried out aprocedure of fitting, with synthetic seismograms, of selected filtered traceswith a gaussian filter, having a width at half height equal to 1 Hz and acentral frequency lying in the range [1,4] Hz. We estimated the likelihoodbetween synthetic and observed seismograms by measuring their semblance.In this way we were able to infer a more refined local velocity modelcharacterized by a high Vp and Vs vertical gradient in the sedimentarycover. Two ad hoc resolution studies, based on group velocity andamplitude data respectively, indicate that the local velocity model is a goodvelocity model also for the entire studied area. The increase in the numberof available data when using amplitude information allows us to make amore selective choice in the model parameter space (Vp and Vs of eachlayer) and to solve for the Vp/Vs ratio. The inferred Vp velocity in thehalf-space is equal to 2.8 km/s. This value is in excellent agreement withthat inferred by other authors (3 km/s) by modeling P-wave travel timevs. distance. The best-fit model furnish low Vp/Vs for the sedimentarycover so indicating a high degree of the sediment's compaction in thestudied area. The inferred shallow high-velocity gradient indicates thatthe shallow sedimentary layer in the area could trap and focus the energytraveling into it.     

An estimate of hypocentre location accuracy in a large network: possible implications for tectonic studies in Italy

Data recorded by the Italian Telemetered Seismic Network (ITSN) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) have been widely used in recent years to image slab structures and to find evidence for active processes along the Italian Peninsula. However, the use of seismic data for geostructural purposes may be affected by the well-known trade-off between earthquake location and seismic-velocity parameters. Furthermore, the confidence ellipse predicted by standard procedures may be inadequate for the representation of the probable error of a computed localization. This paper evaluates the probable errors on the hypocentre determinations of the seismic events recorded by the ITSN, using a Monte Carlo method.
We compute synthetic arrival times using a 1-D velocity model appropriate as an average for the Italian area. The hypocentres used are all those recorded by the ITSN during the period January 1992 to March 1994 (1972 events). Station locations are those of the current ITSN configuration. The synthetic arrival times are perturbed with a Gaussian distribution of errors and input to ING's standard hypocentral location procedure, but using crustal velocities differing by 10 per cent from those used to generate them. Each simulation is repeated at least 30 times. Average absolute shifts of hypocentres are assessed in grid cells of linear dimension 33 km covering the whole Italian region.
For regions within the ITSN, shifts are typically 5–10 km in location and up to 20 km in depth. However, for offshore and coastal regions, they are much greater: 50 km or more in both location and depth (far exceeding the equivalent uncertainties quoted by ING bulletins). Possible consequences of this are highlighted by producing a cross-section of subcrustal hypocentres from the Adriatic to the Tyrrhenian Sea, where the large uncertainty in depth precludes any confident interpretation of dipping tectonic features.     

The role of the seismic trigger in the Calitri landslide (Italy): historical reconstruction and dynamic analysis

The study covered by this paper was focused on the historical case of the Calitri landslide, which was repeatedly reactivated by earthquakes, as reported since 1694. The town of Calitri (Southern Italy) is located on a ridge whose southern slope, from its top to the Ofanto river valley floor, has been historically affected by major landsliding. The last record of recurrence of the Calitri landslide leads back to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, which caused significant damage to the town and had pervasive and visible ground effects. Based on a detailed historical reconstruction of landsliding and seismicity at Calitri, the study analysed the current static and dynamic stability of the landsliding slope by means of a finite-difference numerical analysis, taking into account the various factors of landslide initiation and kinematics. The results of the numerical analysis: (i) were consistent with the roto-translational mechanism observed upon the latest reactivation of the landslide; (ii) demonstrated that excess pore pressure redistribution caused a lag between the seismic trigger and the initiation of landsliding; and (iii) showed the impact of seismic input frequency on propagation and depth of slope instability.     

Effect of frictional heating and thermal advection on pre-seismic sliding: a numerical simulation using a rate-, state- and temperature-dependent friction law

Laboratory experiments on simulated faults in rocks clearly show the temperature dependence of dynamic rock friction. Since rocks surrounding faults are permeable, we have developed a numerical method to describe the thermo-mechanical evolution of the pre-seismic sliding phase which takes into account both the rate-, state- and temperature-dependent friction law and the heat advection term in the energy equation. We consider a laminar fluid motion perpendicular to a vertical fault plane and assume that fluids move away from the fault plane. A semi-analytical temperature solution which accounts for the variability of slip velocity and stress on the fault has been found. This solution has been generalized to the case of a time varying fluid velocity and then was used to include the thermal pressurization effect. After discretizing the temperature solution, the evolution of the system is obtained by the solution of a system of first order differential equations which allows us to determine the evolution of slip, slip rate, friction coefficient, effective normal stress, temperature and fluid velocity. The numerical solutions are found using a Runge-Kutta method with an adaptative stepsize control in time. When the thermal pressurization effects can be neglected, the heat advection effect gives rise to a delay, with respect to the purely conductive case, of the earthquake occurrence time. This delay increases with increasing permeability H of the system. When the thermal pressurization effects are taken into account the situation is opposite, i.e. the onset of instability tends to precede that of the purely conductive case. The advance in the time of occurrence of instability increases with increasing coefficient of thermal pressurization. In the small permeability range (H ≤ 10^?18 m²), the seismic moment and nucleation length of the pre-seismic phase are significantly smaller than those predicted by the purely conductive model.