The northern Patagonia Somuncura plateau basalts: a product of slab‐induced,shallow asthenospheric upwelling?

The Meseta de Somuncura forms the largest basaltic plateau (20 000 km²) of southern Argentina (extra-Andean domain). Most of these tholeiitic to alkaline rocks were extruded at ˜ 25 Ma (late Oligocene). The absence of rifting–thinning processes, plume activity, or slab-window phenomena leaves only one major possibility for the generation of Somuncura: asthenospheric ('OIB-like') corner flow leading to a transient thermal anomaly above the subducting plate. It is suggested herein that the intake of hot asthenosphere was forced into a favourable topography (concave-up) of the subducting plate, when a major plate reorganization event (Farallon to Nazca) was taking place in late Oligocene to early Miocene time. The fast and vigorous intake of asthenosphere would have been induced by slab roll-back, leading to decoupling of the subducting plate. The Somuncura volcanic episode can be regarded as a marker of the passage from the extremely oblique subduction of Farallon, to the birth of the Nazca plate and roughly perpendicular convergence between South America and Nazca.     

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The nature of η carinae

We give an overview of the Car phenomenon on the basis of ground and space observations. We discuss in particular the IRAS images. We conclude that Car, initially with a mass > 100M , is presently an intermediate-type hypergiant withL=5×10⁶ L , in a rapid evolutionary stage. This phase started with a large increase of mass loss in mid-1800 followed by dust condensation and a large visual fading, at constant bolometric luminosity.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Magnetic anisotropy produced by magma flow: theoretical model and experimental data from Ferrar dolerite sills (Antarctica)

Volcanic rocks forming sills, dykes or lava flows may display a magnetic anisotropy derived from the viscous flow during their emplacement. We model a sill as a steady-state flow of a Bingham fluid, driven by a pressure gradient in a horizontal conduit. The magma velocity as a function of depth is calculated from the motion and constitutive equations. Vorticity and strain rate are determined for a reference system moving with the fluid. The angular velocity and the orientation of an ellipsoidal magnetic grain immersed in the fluid are calculated as functions of time or strain. Magnetic susceptibility is then calculated for a large number of grains with a uniform distribution of initial orientations. It is shown that the magnetic lineation oscillates in the vertical plane through the magma flow direction, and that the magnetic foliation plane changes periodically from horizontal to vertical. The results are compared with the magnetic fabric of Ferrar dolerite sills (Victoria Land, East Antarctica) derived from low-field susceptibility measurements.     

Seismic studies of the Brasília fold belt at the western border of the São Francisco Craton, Central Brazil, using receiver function, surface-wave dispersion and teleseismic tomography

The Tocantins Province in Central Brazil is composed of a series of SSW–NNE trending terranes of mainly Proterozoic ages, which stabilized in the Neoproterozoic in the final collision between the Amazon and São Francisco cratons. No previous information on crustal seismic properties was available for this region. Several broadband stations were used to study the regional patterns of crustal and upper mantle structure, extending the results of a recent E–W seismic refraction profile. Receiver functions and surface wave dispersion showed a thin crust (33–37 km) in the Neoproterozoic Magmatic Arc terrane. High average crustal Vp/Vs ratios (1.74–1.76) were consistently observed in this unit. The foreland domain of the Brasília foldbelt, on the other hand, is characterized by thicker crust (42–43 km). Low Vp/Vs ratios (1.70–1.72) were observed in the low-grade foreland fold and thrust zone of the Brasília belt adjacent to the São Francisco craton. Teleseismic P-wave tomography shows that the lithospheric upper mantle has lower velocities beneath the Magmatic Arc and Goiás Massif compared with the foreland zone of the belt and São Francisco craton. The variations in crustal thickness and upper mantle velocities observed with the broadband stations correlate well with the measurements along the seismic refraction profile. The integration of all seismic observations and gravity data indicates a strong lithospheric contrast between the Goiás Massif and the foreland domain of the Brasília belt, whereas little variation was found across the foldbelt/craton surface boundary. These results support the hypothesis that the Brasília foreland domain and the São Francisco craton were part of a larger São Francisco-Congo continental plate in the final collision with the Amazon plate.     

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.