The experience of using the determined-probabilistic learning information system (DPLIS) for solar activity forecasting

The DPLIS and the results of the solar activity cycle No. 20 forecast with the help of it are described briefly.     

Computer simulation of the formation of asteroid belt structure

The system of two gravitational centers with variable separation between components one of which (the primary) loses its mass onto another (the secondary) is investigated under condition of total mass and angular momentum conservation. When the primary/secondary mass ratio becomes about that of Jupiter/Sun the small bodies ejected with the gaseous matter through the inner Lagrange point from the Roche lobe of the primary form a ring similar to the asteroid belt of the solar system. The formation of ring structure is calculated by numerical integration of Newtonian equations of N-body problem in orbital plane of the gravitational centers. The results are compared with the planar subsystem of the asteroid belt. The presence of the main gaps in the distribution of their mean motions at 2/1, 3/1, 5/2 and some other commensurabilities with the primary mean motion is found. More fine details of the belt structure are obtained, e.g. the gap asymmetry and a qualitative agreement with the eccentricity distribution. Within the scope of the same model the external part of the ring is investigated all the pairwise interactions being included. The clustering of bodies near 3/2 commensurability isolated from the main belt by the wide gap centered at 5/3 commensurability is obtained. It is supposed that the ring structure and the interplanetary spacing law for the terrestrial planets are due to the same mechanism.     

Landscape-Basin Approach in Water Supply Assessments of the Population and Economy of the Regions of Western Siberia

The landscape-basin approach based on the sequential operation algorithm developed for determining potential and actual water supply of Western Siberia territories is proposed to adjust the existing assessments of water availability. The technique for estimating the water availability at the regional and sub-regional level is presented. The assessment of potential water availability is carried out within the boundaries of landscape provinces, whereas actual water availability is assessed for separate river basins and water management sites. Future water consumption is estimated with due regard for the current peculiarities of water use in Western Siberia regions and trends in water use efficiency, including the intensity of water consumption for industrial and agricultural production as well as strategic plans for territorial development. Superposition of natural and administrative-territorial boundaries has been achieved through the use of GIS technologies. Assessment results on the potential water availability in 83 landscape provinces of Western Siberia from 12 federal subjects of Russia are presented. Future water consumption has been assessed for the Western Barabinsk landscape province of Omsk oblast where the city of Omsk and the Omskii municipal district are located. The actual water availability has been estimated for a water management site in the Tom river basin, Kemerovo oblast. The size of the Western Siberia population living in conditions of extremely low, very low and low potential water availability has been calculated. The assessment results are given in tabular form and as geoinformation-cartographic models.     

Determination of wave characteristics of VLF-waves by means of multicomponent electromagnetic field measurements

The multicomponent data of the electromagnetic field obtained on the Aureol-3 satellite were studied. On the basis of the application of the multispectral analysis, nonlinear interactions on the harmonics of the proton gyro-frequency were determined. By the power spectra of the low frequency radiation components, the principal regulations of behaviour of the vectors of the wave normal and of the wave distribution function from the frequency and the invariant latitude L were found. It is noted, that at frequencies below the proton gyro-frequency there often arises the second maximum in the form of a wave distribution function, that can be interpreted as a reflected wave.     

The range of induction-coil magnetic field sensors for geophysical explorations

This paper reports the long-term teamwork results obtained by an expert group from the Radiophysical Research Institute (NIRFI) and VEGA Geophysics Ltd. (VEGA, St. Petersburg) in the course of designing modern induction-coil magnetic field sensors. A comparative analysis of the world’s most famous sensor models is carried out, and basic design and testing methods and features are considered. The range of low-noise induction-coil magnetometers (IMS-007, IMS-008, and IMS-009) designed by the authors for scientific and geophysical ground-based explorations is described. Research results are obtained from using the sensors for geothermal water exploration by broadband magnetotelluric sounding, investigation of the deep structure of the lithosphere by controlled source electromagnetic sounding, and monitoring of the Earth’s natural electromagnetic field.     

Results of multiyear studies on the dynamics of pollution of lake Baikal by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the area waste water discharge from the Baikal Pulp and Paper Plant

New data on the concentration and spatial distribution of the benz(a)pyrene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in bottom sediments in the testing area of the Baikal Pulp and Paper Plant (BPPP) waste water discharge in 1981–1988 and 2010 are presented in this paper. The bottom sediments in this section of the lake are strongly polluted with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.     

Trojan-type orbits in the system of two gravitational centers with variable masses and separation

Trojan type orbits in the system of two gravitational centers with variable separation are studied within the framework of the restricted problem of three bodies. The backward numerical integration of the equations of motion of the bodies starting in the triangular libration pointsL ₄ andL ₅ (reverse problem) finds the breakdown of librations as the separation decreases because of the mass gain of the smaller component and an approach of the body of negligible, mass to the latter up to the distance below its sphere of action with a relative velocity approximately equal to the escape one on this sphere. The breakdown of librations aboutL ₅ occurs under the mass gain of the smaller component considerably larger than in the case ofL ₄ and implications are made for the asymmetry of the number of librators aboutL ₄ andL ₅ in the solar system (Greeks and Trojans). Other parameters of the libration motion near 1/1 commensurability are obtained, namely, the asymmetry of the libration amplitudes about the triangular points as well as the values of periods and amplitudes within the limits of those for real Trojan asteroids. Trojans could be supposedly, formed inside the Proto-jupiter and escape during its intensive mass loss.     

Accumulation Dynamics of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Lake Baikal Bottom Biocenoses Assessed from Biogeochemical Monitoring Data

The results of long-term biogeochemical monitoring of Lake Baikal are presented. The accumulation is studied of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in bottom sediments and macrozoobenthos that were synchronously sampled at the same stations. The stations are located in the areas where anthropogenic impact on the lake is high: in the area of the former Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill (BPPM), in the footprint of the BAM railway in the north of the lake and in the Selenga River delta front as well as in the zones of coastal fouling in the area of BPPM. It is found that variations in the concentration of PAHs in macrozoobenthos do not directly depend on those in the sediments. It is revealed that the maximum concentration of benzo[a]pyrene in the area of the former BPPM is almost by eight times higher than in the other areas of the lake; shallow-water macrophytes accumulate more polyarenes than deep-water macrozoobenthos.     

Method for numerical computing of wave fields of sources in nonuniform media

Summary An effective method of computing wave fields is proposed. It is applicable in regions intermediate to a slowly varying (geometrical optics) and strongly nonuniform medium (full-wave solution).

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Effect of medium electrophysical parameters and their temperature dependences on wideband electromagnetic pulse propagation

The dielectric permittivity of fiery spoil tips (Shakhty town, Rostov Region) is studied with the use of a GROT 12E remote-controlled ground-penetrating radar (GPR). An anomalous zone in a combustion source is shown to be clearly pronounced in GPR data due to the temperature dependence of the dielectric permittivity of these spoil tips. To substantiate this statement, the GPR data are compared with direct measurements of soil temperatures at depths from 1.5 to 2.5 m. The experimental results are compared with the variable spectral range of a GPR sounding pulse. GPR is shown to be a promising tool for the mapping of temperature-contrast underground objects.