Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

A note on the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on small amplitude water-wave propagation

In this note we investigated the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on wave propagation. Within the framework of linear water-wave theory, analytical solutions are obtained for damping rate, dispersion relation between wave frequency and wave number, and velocity components in the water column and mud layer. The wave attenuation rate reaches a maximum value when the mud layer thickness is about the same as the mud boundary layer thickness. Heavier mud has a weaker effect on the wave damping. However, the wave attenuation rate does not always decrease as the elastic shear modulus increases. In the range of small values for elastic shear modulus, the wave attenuation can be amplified quite significantly. The current solutions are compared with experimental data with different wave conditions and mud properties. In general, good agreements are observed.     

The impact of wave loads and pore-water pressure generation on initiation of sediment transport

The build-up of pore-water pressure by waves can lead to sediment liquefaction and subsequent transport by traction currents. This process was investigated by measuring pore-water pressures both in a field experiment and laboratory wave tank tests. Liquefaction was observed in the wave tank tests. The results suggest that sand is less susceptible than silts to wave-induced liquefaction because of the tendency to partially dissipate pore-water pressures. However, previous studies have determined that pore-water pressures must approach liquefaction before current velocities necessary to initiate transport are reduced. Once liquefaction has occurred more sediment can be transported.     

COMMUNITY AMONG GEOGRAPHERS*

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Geomorphic evolution of a part of Middle Ganga Plain,Bihar: A case study using remote sensing data

An insight into the geomorphic evolution of any area can be obtained by detailed landform mapping. In the present study, an area in the Middle Ganga Plain has been selected for the study using mainly remote sensing data. Various fluvial landforms have been mapped and the changes in planform of rivers over approximately 50 years have been evaluated. Both fluvial processes and tectonic activities are considered to have collectively influenced the migration of the rivers in this region. Digital enhancements of Landsat MSS and TM data are found to be quite useful in identification and mapping of subtle fluvial palaeofeatures. The present study demonstrates the utility of remote sensing in examining the geomorphic evolution of the area.