Investigating the mechanisms leading to the deglaciation of past continental northern hemisphere ice sheets with the CLIMBER–GREMLINS coupled model

A coupling procedure between a climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2.3) and a 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-sheet model (GREMLINS) has been elaborated. The resulting coupled model describes the evolution of atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, cryosphere and their mutual interactions. It is used to perform several simulations of the Last Deglaciation period to identify the physical mechanisms at the origin of the deglaciation process. Our baseline experiment, forced by insolation and atmospheric CO₂, produces almost complete deglaciation of past northern hemisphere continental ice sheets, although ice remains over the Cordilleran region at the end of the simulation and also in Alaska and Eastern Siberia. Results clearly demonstrate that, in this study, the melting of the North American ice sheet is critically dependent on the deglaciation of Fennoscandia through processes involving switches of the thermohaline circulation from a glacial mode to a modern one and associated warming of the northern hemisphere. A set of sensitivity experiments has been carried out to test the relative importance of both forcing factors and internal processes in the deglaciation mechanism. It appears that the deglaciation is primarily driven by insolation. However, the atmospheric CO₂ modulates the timing of the melting of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and results relative to Laurentide illustrate the existence of threshold CO₂ values, that can be translated in terms of critical temperature, below which the deglaciation is impeded. Finally, we show that the beginning of the deglaciation process of the Laurentide ice sheet may be influenced by the time at which the shift of the thermohaline circulation from one mode to the other occurs.     

The integrated optical spectrum of the Crab nebula and evidence for its fading synchrotron continuum

A flux-calibrated optical spectrum integrated over the entire Crab nebula was obtained by making drift scans with a long-slit spectrograph. Compared to observations obtained over the past 40 years, these new data confirm an earlier controversial result that the [O iii ]  λλ4959, 5007  equivalent width is increasing with time, although the rate of ∼0.9 per cent yr⁻¹ is somewhat slower than that measured previously. Additionally, the Hβ equivalent width is increasing at a comparable rate, but the measured fluxes of both Hβ and [O  iii ] have changed less than their respective equivalent widths. The different rates of change in the measured fluxes and equivalent widths of these lines suggest that the optical synchrotron continuum from the Crab nebula is indeed fading rapidly. The apparent decline is consistent with a rate around  −0.5 (±0.2)  per cent yr⁻¹ at wavelengths near 5000  Å inferred independently from measurements of the optical continuum flux during the same time period.     

Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochemistry and distribution of sediments in the East Indian shelf,SW Bay of Bengal: implications on weathering,transport and depositional environment

Forty-two substrate sediment samples and three cores procured from the shelf region between Chennai and Cuddalore were analyzed to understand the spatial and vertical sediment distribution. Samples subjected to grain size, bulk and clay mineralogical analyses, REE and trace element geochemistry yielded interesting results about the sediment characteristics with respect to the modern day environment. The present study revealed that the study area is characterized by high energy environment marked by predominant composition of medium sand. Results confirmed the evidence of more illite than kaolinite, smectite, and chlorite in the clay mineral assemblage indicating a terrigenous source. Geochemical data also revealed that the enrichment of light rare earth elements (LREE) in the sediments is due to continental source of Precambrian times. High feldspar content in the sediments which is emphasized by bulk mineralogical data displayed positive Eu anomaly. By using the paleoredox index, the area of interest is considered to have undergone no major changes in its depositional settings.     

Sulfide-driven arsenic mobilization from arsenopyrite and black shale pyrite

We examined the hypothesis that sulfide drives arsenic mobilization from pyritic black shale by a sulfide-arsenide exchange and oxidation reaction in which sulfide replaces arsenic in arsenopyrite forming pyrite, and arsenide (As−1) is concurrently oxidized to soluble arsenite (As+3). This hypothesis was tested in a series of sulfide-arsenide exchange experiments with arsenopyrite (FeAsS), homogenized black shale from the Newark Basin (Lockatong formation), and pyrite isolated from Newark Basin black shale incubated under oxic (21% O₂), hypoxic (2% O₂, 98% N₂), and anoxic (5% H₂, 95% N₂) conditions. The oxidation state of arsenic in Newark Basin black shale pyrite was determined using X-ray absorption-near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES). Incubation results show that sulfide (1 mM initial concentration) increases arsenic mobilization to the dissolved phase from all three solids under oxic and hypoxic, but not anoxic conditions. Indeed under oxic and hypoxic conditions, the presence of sulfide resulted in the mobilization in 48 h of 13-16 times more arsenic from arsenopyrite and 6-11 times more arsenic from isolated black shale pyrite than in sulfide-free controls. XANES results show that arsenic in Newark Basin black shale pyrite has the same oxidation state as that in FeAsS (−1) and thus extend the sulfide-arsenide exchange mechanism of arsenic mobilization to sedimentary rock, black shale pyrite. Biologically active incubations of whole black shale and its resident microorganisms under sulfate reducing conditions resulted in sevenfold higher mobilization of soluble arsenic than sterile controls. Taken together, our results indicate that sulfide-driven arsenic mobilization would be most important under conditions of redox disequilibrium, such as when sulfate-reducing bacteria release sulfide into oxic groundwater, and that microbial sulfide production is expected to enhance arsenic mobilization in sedimentary rock aquifers with major pyrite-bearing, black shale formations.     

Distributed deformation around the eastern tip of the Kunlun fault

Whether active strain within the Indo-Asian collision zone is primarily localized along major strike-slip fault systems or is distributed throughout the intervening crust between faults remains uncertain. Despite refined estimates of slip rates along many of the major fault zones, relatively little is known about how displacement along these structures is accommodated at fault terminations. Here, we show that a systematic decrease in left-lateral slip rates along the eastern ~200 km of the Kunlun fault, from >10 mm/year to <1 mm/year, is coincident with high topography in the Anyemaqen Shan and with a broad zone of distributed shear and clockwise vorticity within the Tibetan Plateau. Geomorphic analysis of river longitudinal profiles, coupled with inventories of cosmogenic radionuclides in fluvial sediment, reveal correlated variations in fluvial relief and erosion rate across the Anyemaqen Shan that reflect ongoing differential rock uplift across the range. Our results imply that the termination of the Kunlun fault system is accommodated by a combination of distributed crustal thickening and by clockwise rotation of the eastern fault segments.     

Mid-infrared, spatially resolved spectroscopy of the nucleus of the Circinus galaxy

High spatial resolution spectroscopy at 8–13 μm with T-ReCS on Gemini-S has revealed striking variations in the mid-infrared emission and absorption in the nucleus of the Circinus galaxy (hereafter Circinus) on subarcsecond scales. The core of Circinus is compact and obscured by a substantial column of cool silicate dust. Weak extended emission to the east and west coincides with the coronal line region and arises from featureless dust grains which are probably heated by line emission in the coronal emission zone. The extended emission on the east side of the nucleus displays a much deeper silicate absorption than that on the west, indicating significant columns of cool material along the line of sight and corresponding to an additional extinction of   A_V ∼ 25 mag  . Emission bands from aromatic hydrocarbons are not subject to this additional extinction, are relatively weak in the core and in the coronal line region, and are much more spatially extended than the continuum dust emission; they presumably arise in the circumnuclear star-forming regions. These data are interpreted in terms of an inclined disc-like structure around the nucleus extending over tens of parsecs and possibly related to the inner disc found from observations of water masers by Greenhill et al..     

Does geographic location impact the survival differential between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers?

Although mammography screening programs aim to diagnose breast cancer at an early stage, not all tumours are detected during the regular screening examination. This study examines the influence of various characteristics, including geographical residence, on the survival between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers among participants of a public population-based breast screening program in Queensland, Australia. The investigation was performed using the linked population-based datasets from BreastScreen Queensland and the Queensland Cancer Registry for the period of 1997–2008 for women aged 40–89 years at diagnosis. A Bayesian spatial relative survival modelling approach that accommodates rare outcomes in small geographic regions was adopted, with the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo computation, to evaluate the relative excess risk of breast cancer. In the multivariate Bayesian spatial model, higher relative excess risk of mortality was observed in interval-detected cancer (RER = 1.59, 95 % credible interval = [1.33, 1.89]) compared to screen-detected cancer. Higher cancer survival among the study cohort was also observed among younger women (40–59 years), those of non-Indigenous ethnicity, with localised (stage I) tumour stage as well as those not in the work force. There was no independent association with marital status. Moreover, there was no substantive evidence of either measured geographical or latent random spatial inequalities in survival among screening participants across Queensland, meaning the higher survival for screen-detected breast cancer patients compared to interval-detected women was consistent across the state. These results provide suggestive evidence supporting the effectiveness of the BreastScreen Queensland screening program in reaching socio-economically disadvantaged women as well as those living in rural and remote areas of the state, but also highlights the need for any interval cancer awareness programs to be geographically widespread.