Assessing spatial and attribute errors in large national datasets for population distribution models: a case study of Philadelphia county schools

Geospatial technologies and digital data have developed and disseminated rapidly in conjunction with increasing computing efficiency and Internet availability. The ability to store and transmit large datasets has encouraged the development of national infrastructure datasets in geospatial formats. National datasets are used by numerous agencies for analysis and modeling purposes because these datasets are standardized and considered to be of acceptable accuracy for national scale applications. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory a population model has been developed that incorporates national schools data as one of the model inputs. This paper evaluates spatial and attribute inaccuracies present within two national school datasets, Tele Atlas North America and National Center of Education Statistics (NCES). Schools are an important component of the population model, because they are spatially dense clusters of vulnerable populations. It is therefore essential to validate the quality of school input data. Schools were also chosen since a validated schools dataset was produced in geospatial format for Philadelphia County; thereby enabling a comparison between a local dataset and the national datasets. Analyses found the national datasets are not standardized and incomplete, containing 76 to 90 percent of existing schools. The temporal accuracy of updating annual enrollment values resulted in 89 percent inaccuracy for 2003. Spatial rectification was required for 87 percent of NCES points, of which 58 percent of the errors were attributed to the geocoding process. Lastly, it was found that by combining the two national datasets, the resultant dataset provided a more useful and accurate solution.     

Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?

Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed.     

The Role of Sediment Dynamics for Inorganic Accretion Patterns in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Salt Marshes

Salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise depends on marsh plain elevation, tidal range, subsurface processes, as well as surface accretion, of which suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) is a critical component. However, spatial and temporal patterns of inorganic sedimentation are poorly quantified within and across Salicornia pacifica (pickleweed)-dominated marshes. We compared vertical accretion rates and re-examined previously published suspended-sediment patterns during dry-weather periods at Seal Beach Wetlands, which is characterized by a mix of Spartina foliosa (cordgrass) and pickleweed, and for Mugu Lagoon, where cordgrass is rare. Mugu Lagoon occurs higher in the tidal frame and receives terrigenous sediment from an adjacent creek. Feldspar marker horizons were established in winter 2013–2014 to measure accretion. Accretion rates at Seal Beach Wetlands and Mugu Lagoon were 6 ± 0.5 mm/year (mean ± SE) and 2 ± 0.3 mm/year. Also, the estimated sediment flux (g/year) across the random feldspar plots was 3.5 times higher at Seal Beach Wetlands. At Mugu Lagoon, accretion was higher near creeks, although not statistically significant. Dry-weather SSC showed similar concentrations at transect locations across sites. During wet weather, however, SSC at Mugu Lagoon increased at all locations, with concentrations decaying farther than 8 m from tidal creek edge. Based on these results from Mugu Lagoon, we conclude accretion patterns are set by infrequent large flooding events in systems where there is a watershed sediment source. Higher accretion rates at Seal Beach Wetlands may be linked to lower-marsh elevations, and thus more frequent inundation, compared with Mugu Lagoon.     

Social media information sharing for natural disaster response

Natural Hazards - Prediction in ungauged basins (PUB) is as crucial as it is challenging. Thus far, there have been abundant regionalization studies on PUB, whereas "regionalization" is...     

Comparative Analysis of a Transition Region Bright Point with a Blinker and Coronal Bright Point Using Multiple EIS Emission Lines

Since their discovery 20 year ago, transition region bright points have never been observed spectroscopically. Bright point properties have not been compared with similar transition region and coronal structures. In this work we have investigated three transient quiet Sun brightenings including a transition region bright point (TR BP), a coronal bright point (CBP) and a blinker. We use time-series observations of the extreme-ultraviolet emission lines of a wide range of temperature T (logT=5.3?–?6.4) from the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) onboard the Hinode satellite. We present the EIS temperature maps and Doppler maps, which are compared with magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the SOHO satellite. Doppler velocities of the TR BP and blinker are ≤?25 km?s^?1, which is typical of transient TR phenomena. The Doppler velocities of the CBP were found to be ≤?20 km?s^?1 with exception of those measured at logT=6.2 where a distinct bi-directional jet is observed. From an EM loci analysis we find evidence of single and double isothermal components in the TR BP and CBP, respectively. TR BP and CBP loci curves are characterized by broad distributions suggesting the existence of unresolved structure. By comparing and contrasting the physical characteristics of the events we find that the BP phenomena are an indication of multi-scaled self-similarity, given the similarities in both their underlying magnetic field configuration and evolution in relation to EUV flux changes. In contrast, the blinker phenomena and the TR BP are sufficiently dissimilar in their observed properties as to constitute different event classes. Our work is an indication that the measurement of similar characteristics across multiple event types holds class-predictive power, and is a significant step towards automated solar atmospheric multi-class classification of unresolved transient EUV sources. Finally, the analysis performed here establishes a connection between solar quiet region CBPs and jets.     

Mercury uptake by the estuarine species Palaemonetes pugio and Fundulus heteroclitus compared with their parasites,Probopyrus pandalicola and Eustrongylides sp

When exposed to methylmercury in the laboratory, grass shrimp, Palaemonetes pugio, parasitized by the isopod Probopyrus pandalicola, accumulated lower concentrations of mercury than their unparasitized counterparts. The parasitic isopod accumulated far less mercury than the grass shrimp. When exposed to mercury in a contaminated field site, mummichogs, Fundulus heteroclitus, parasitized with the nematode Eustrongylides, similarly accumulated lower concentrations of mercury than unparasitized fish, and the parasite similarly accumulated less than the host. The lower uptake by the parasites compared to their hosts is counter to the general view of biomagnification of methylmercury, since parasites are a trophic level above their hosts. The mechanism whereby parasitized animals accumulate less toxicant than unparasitized ones is unknown, but may be partially due to lower metabolic rate.     

Convection forced by a descending dry layer and low-level moist convergence

A narrow line of convective showers was observed over southern England on 18 July 2005 during the Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP). The showers formed behind a cold front (CF), beneath two apparently descending dry layers (i.e. sloping so that they descended relative to the instruments observing them). The lowermost dry layer was associated with a tropopause fold from a depression, which formed 2 d earlier from a breaking Rossby wave, located northwest of the UK. The uppermost dry layer had fragmented from the original streamer due to rotation around the depression (This rotation was also responsible for the observations of apparent descent—ascent would otherwise be seen behind a CF). The lowermost dry layer descended over the UK and overran higher  θ _w   air beneath it, resulting in potential instability. Combined with a surface convergence line (which triggered the convection but had less impact on the convective available potential energy than the potential instability), convection was forced up to 5.5 km where the uppermost dry layer capped it. The period when convection was possible was very short, thus explaining the narrowness of the shower band. Convective Storm Initiation Project observations and model data are presented to illustrate the unique processes in this case.     

On the origin of south polar folds on Enceladus

Recent high-resolution Cassini images of the south polar terrain of Enceladus reveal regions of short-wavelength deformation, inferred to be compressional folds between the Baghdad and Damascus tiger stripes (Spencer, J.R., Barr, A.C., Esposito, L.W., Helfenstein, P., Ingersoll, A.P., Jaumann, R., McKay, C.P., Nimmo, F., Waite, J.H. [2009a]. Enceladus: An active cryovolcanic satellite. In: Saturn after Cassini-Huygens. Springer, New York, pp. 683-722). Here, we use Fourier analysis of the bright/dark variations to show that the folds have a dominant wavelength of 1.1 ± 0.4 km. We use the simple model of lava flow folding from Fink (Fink, J. [1980]. Geology 8, 250-254) to show that the folds could form in an ice shell with an upper high-viscosity boundary layer of thickness <400 m, with a driving stress of 40-80 kPa, and strain rate between 10⁻¹⁴ s⁻¹ and 10⁻¹² s⁻¹. Such deformation rates imply resurfacing of the SPT in 0.05-5 Myr, consistent with its estimated surface age. Measurements of fold topography and more sophisticated numerical modeling can narrow down the conditions of fold formation and provide valuable constraints on the thermal structure of the ice shell on Enceladus.     

Features of coastal upwelling regions that determine net air-sea CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux

The influence of the coastal ocean on global net annual air-sea CO₂ fluxes remains uncertain. However, it is well known that air-sea pCO₂ disequilibria can be large (ocean pCO₂ ranging from ∼400 μatm above atmospheric saturation to ∼250 μatm below) in eastern boundary currents, and it has been hypothesized that these regions may be an appreciable net carbon sink. In addition it has been shown that the high productivity in these regions (responsible for the exceptionally low surface pCO₂) can cause nutrients and inorganic carbon to become more concentrated in the lower layer of the water column over the shelf relative to adjacent open ocean waters of the same density. This paper explores the potential role of the winter season in determining the net annual CO₂ flux in temperate zone eastern boundary currents, using the results from a box model. The model is parameterized and forced to represent the northernmost part of the upwelling region on the North American Pacific coast. Model results are compared to the few summer data that exist in that region. The model is also used to determine the effect that upwelling and downwelling strength have on the net annual CO₂ flux. Results show that downwelling may play an important role in limiting the amount of CO₂ outgassing that occurs during winter. Finally data from three distinct regions on the Pacific coast are compared to highlight the importance of upwelling and downwelling strength in determining carbon fluxes in eastern boundary currents and to suggest that other features, such as shelf width, are likely to be important.     

Recent progress on combining geomorphological and geochronological data with ice sheet modelling,demonstrated using the last British–Irish Ice Sheet

Palaeo-ice sheets are important analogues for understanding contemporary ice sheets, offering a record of ice sheet behaviour that spans millennia. There are two main approaches to reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets. Empirical reconstructions use the available glacial geological and chronological evidence to estimate ice sheet extent and dynamics but lack direct consideration of ice physics. In contrast, numerically modelled simulations implement ice physics, but often lack direct quantitative comparison with empirical evidence. Despite being long identified as a fruitful scientific endeavour, few ice sheet reconstructions attempt to reconcile the empirical and model-based approaches. To achieve this goal, model-data comparison procedures are required. Here, we compare three numerically modelled simulations of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet with the following lines of evidence: (a) position and shape of former margin positions, recorded by moraines; (b) former ice-flow direction and flow-switching, recorded by flowsets of subglacial bedforms; and (c) the timing of ice-free conditions, recorded by geochronological data. These model–data comparisons provide a useful framework for quantifying the degree of fit between numerical model simulations and empirical constraints. Such tools are vital for reconciling numerical modelling and empirical evidence, the combination of which will lead to more robust palaeo-ice sheet reconstructions with greater explicative and ultimately predictive power.