Multiyear simulation of the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM3) with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis

This study examines the ability of the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model (RegCM3) to reproduce seasonal mean climatologies, annual cycle and interannual variability over the entire African continent and different climate subregions. The new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-interim reanalysis is used to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RegCM3 simulation. Seasonal mean values of zonal wind profile, temperature, precipitation and associated low level circulations are shown to be realistically simulated, although the regional model still shows some deficiencies. The West Africa monsoon flow is somewhat overestimated and the Africa Easterly Jet (AEJ) core intensity is underestimated. Despite these biases, there is a marked improvement in these simulated model variables compared to previous applications of this model over Africa. The mean annual cycle of precipitation, including single and multiple rainy seasons, is well captured over most African subregions, in some cases even improving the quality of the ERA-interim reanalysis. Similarly, the observed precipitation interannual variability is well reproduced by the regional model over most regions, mostly following, and sometimes improving, the quality of the ERA-interim reanalysis. It is assessed that the performance of this model over the entire African domain is of sufficient quality for application to the study of climate change and climate variability over the African continent.     

Projected increased risk of water deficit over major West African river basins under future climates

Despite decades of research, large multi-model uncertainty remains about the Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide forcing as inferred from state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs). Statistical treatments of multi-model uncertainties are often limited to simple ESM averaging approaches. Sometimes models are weighted by how well they reproduce historical climate observations. Here, we propose a novel approach to multi-model combination and uncertainty quantification. Rather than averaging a discrete set of models, our approach samples from a continuous distribution over a reduced space of simple model parameters. We fit the free parameters of a reduced-order climate model to the output of each member of the multi-model ensemble. The reduced-order parameter estimates are then combined using a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model. The result is a multi-model distribution of reduced-model parameters, including climate sensitivity. In effect, the multi-model uncertainty problem within an ensemble of ESMs is converted to a parametric uncertainty problem within a reduced model. The multi-model distribution can then be updated with observational data, combining two independent lines of evidence. We apply this approach to 24 model simulations of global surface temperature and net top-of-atmosphere radiation response to abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide, and four historical temperature data sets. Our reduced order model is a 2-layer energy balance model. We present probability distributions of climate sensitivity based on (1) the multi-model ensemble alone and (2) the multi-model ensemble and observations.     

Assessment of projected agro-climatic indices over Awun river basin,Nigeria for the late twenty-first century

This paper examines changes in rainfall effectiveness indices of the Awun basin in Nigeria during the late twenty-first century for agricultural applications with outputs from high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCM simulations are driven by two global climate models for a reference period (1985–2004) and a future period (2080–2099) and for RCP4.5 (a scenario with some mitigation) and RCP8.5 (a business as usual scenario) forcings. Simulations are provided for the control (1985–2004) and scenario (2080–2099) periods. Observations from synoptic station are used for bias-correction. Three indices being local onset date, seasonality index (SI), and hydrologic ratio (HR) are analyzed. Onset and HR are tested with two evapotranspiration (ET_p) models. Farmers’ perceptions are also collected to validate trends of rainfall indices for the present-day climate. We found that onset dates do not depend much on the ET_p models used, and farmers’ perceptions are consistent with predicted rainfall patterns. Present-day climate trend shows an early onset. However, onset is projected to be late in future and the delay will be magnified under the business as usual scenario. Indeed, average onset date is found on the 5th May for present-day while in the future, a delay about 4 and 8 weeks is projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. SI is between 0.80 and 0.99, and HR is less than 0.75 for all scenarios, meaning respectively that (i) the rainy season will get shorter and (ii) the area will get drier in the future compared to the present-day. Local stakeholders are forewarned to prepare for potential response strategies. A continuous provision of forecast-based rainfall indices to support farmer’s decision making is also recommended.     

Formation of a Flare-Productive Active Region: Observation and Numerical Simulation of NOAA AR 11158

We present a comparison of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) analysis of NOAA Active Region (AR) 11158 and numerical simulations of flux-tube emergence, aiming to investigate the formation process of this flare-productive AR. First, we use SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms to investigate the photospheric evolution and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) data to analyze the relevant coronal structures. Key features of this quadrupolar region are a long sheared polarity inversion line (PIL) in the central δ-sunspots and a coronal arcade above the PIL. We find that these features are responsible for the production of intense flares, including an X2.2-class event. Based on the observations, we then propose two possible models for the creation of AR 11158 and conduct flux-emergence simulations of the two cases to reproduce this AR. Case 1 is the emergence of a single flux tube, which is split into two in the convection zone and emerges at two locations, while Case 2 is the emergence of two isolated but neighboring tubes. We find that, in Case 1, a sheared PIL and a coronal arcade are created in the middle of the region, which agrees with the AR 11158 observation. However, Case 2 never builds a clear PIL, which deviates from the observation. Therefore, we conclude that the flare-productive AR 11158 is, between the two cases, more likely to be created from a single split emerging flux than from two independent flux bundles.     

Generalized second law of thermodynamics in f(T) gravity with entropy corrections

We study the generalized second law (GSL) of thermodynamics in f(T) cosmology, where T is the torsion scalar in teleparallelism. We consider the universe as a closed bounded system filled with n component fluids in the thermal equilibrium with the cosmological boundary. We use two different cosmic horizons: the future event horizon and the apparent horizon. We show the conditions under which the GSL will be valid in specific scenarios of the quintessence and the phantom energy dominated eras. Further we associate two different entropies with the cosmological horizons: with a logarithmic correction term and a power-law correction term. We also find the conditions for the GSL to be satisfied or violated by imposing constraints on model parameters.     

Projected changes in extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in Côte d’Ivoire under future climates

This study analyzes projected changes in seasonal extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in the investigation area (Côte d’Ivoire) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. To this end, a multi-model ensemble of fourteen CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations is used during the three stages of the West African Monsoon (WAM) season (April–June (AMJ), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND)). The results indicate that Côte d’Ivoire is subject to a robust increase of cumulative intensity of precipitation associated with an amplification of extreme precipitation events during the WAM. In particular during JAS, a substantial increase in extreme precipitation reaching up to 50–60% compared to the reference mean value prevails in the western and coastal areas in the far future and under the RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, AMJ season is dominated by an increase in dry spell length of about 12% and 17% in the near future and 20% and 30% in the far future in the entire country under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, albeit considerable uncertainties. OND considered as the post-monsoon season is mostly characterized by a robust decrease in dry spell length more marked in the southwest in the RCP8.5 scenario during the far future. These results suggest that agricultural production and particularly cocoa plantations in the southwestern regions could be at the risk of flooding events and that water stress remains a threat for cocoa, coffee, and other cash crop plantations in the eastern regions.     

Dipole index of the tropical Atlantic and precipitation regime in Cote de Voire

J. Servain, a French scientist [21], proposed a dipole index of a thermal state of waters in the tropical Atlantic. In [8], the index is calculated as a difference between mean water surface temperatures in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic for each month of 1941–2000. The dipole index is assumed to characterize seasonal and interannual changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and thermal equator and potentially is a predictor of the moistening regime in the West African countries. For Cote de Voire, based on the multiyear data on monthly precipitation, five equiprobable gradations were determined. The intercomparison of gradations of the dipole index of the tropical Atlantic and seasonal precipitation in Cote de Voire made it possible to reveal a number of interrelations that can be used for long-range forecasting of precipitation during a rain season.     

Bosumtwi impact structure,Ghana: Evidence for fluidized emplacement of the ejecta

The about 10.5 km diameter Bosumtwi impact crater is one of the youngest large impact structures on Earth. The crater rim is readily noticed on topographic maps or in satellite imagery. It defines a circular basin filled by water (Lake Bosumtwi) and lacustrine sediments. The morphology of this impact structure is also characterized by a circular plateau extending beyond the rim and up to 9–10 km from the center of the crater (about 2 crater radii). This feature comprises a shallow ring depression, also described as an annular moat, and a subdued circular ridge at its outer edge. The origin of this outermost feature could so far not be elucidated based on remote sensing data only. Our approach combines detailed topographic analysis, including roughness mapping, with airborne radiometric surveys (mapping near‐surface K, Th, U concentrations) and field observations. This provides evidence that the moat and outer ring are features inherited from the impact event and represent the partially eroded ejecta layer of the Bosumtwi impact structure. The characteristics of the outer ridge indicate that ejecta emplacement was not purely ballistic but requires ejecta fluidization and surface flow. The setting of Bosumtwi ejecta can therefore be considered as a terrestrial analog for rampart craters, which are common on Mars and Venus, and also found on icy bodies of the outer solar system (e.g., Ganymede, Europa, Dione, Tethys, and Charon). Future studies at Bosumtwi may therefore help to elucidate the mechanism of formation of rampart craters.     

TeV γ-rays from old supernova remnants

We study the emission from an old supernova remnant (SNR) with an age of around 10⁵ yr and that from a giant molecular cloud (GMC) encountered by the SNR. When the SNR age is around 10⁵ yr, proton acceleration is efficient enough to emit TeV γ-rays both at the shock of the SNR and that in the GMC. The maximum energy of primarily accelerated electrons is so small that TeV γ-rays and X-rays are dominated by hadronic processes,  π⁰  -decay and synchrotron radiation from secondary electrons, respectively. However, if the SNR is older than several 10⁵ yr, there are few high-energy particles emitting TeV γ-rays because of the energy-loss effect and/or the wave-damping effect occurring at low-velocity isothermal shocks. For old SNRs or SNR–GMC interacting systems capable of generating TeV γ-ray emitting particles, we calculated the ratio of TeV γ-ray (1–10 TeV) to X-ray (2–10 keV) energy flux and found that it can be more than  ∼10²  . Such a source showing large flux ratio may be a possible origin of recently discovered unidentified TeV sources.