An updated assessment of the risks from climate change based on research published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007 presents the most complete and authoritative assessment of the status of scientific knowledge on all aspects of climate change. This paper presents an updated assessment of the risks from anthropogenic climate change, based on a comprehensive review of the pertinent scientific literature published since finalisation of the AR4. Many risks are now assessed as stronger than in the AR4, including the risk of large sea-level rise already in the current century, the amplification of global warming due to biological and geological carbon-cycle feedbacks, a large magnitude of “committed warming” currently concealed by a strong aerosol mask, substantial increases in climate variability and extreme weather events, and the risks to marine ecosystems from climate change and ocean acidification. Some topics remain the subject of intense scientific debate, such as past and future changes in tropical cyclone activity and the risk of large-scale Amazon forest dieback. The rise in greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations has accelerated recently, and it is expected to accelerate further in the absence of targeted policy interventions. Taken together, these findings point to an increased urgency of implementing mitigation policies as well as comprehensive and equitable adaptation policies.     

Oil-oil and oil-source rock correlations in the Alpine Foreland Basin of Austria: Insights from biomarker and stable carbon isotope studies

The Alpine Foreland Basin is a minor oil and moderate gas province in central Europe. In the Austrian part of the Alpine Foreland Basin, oil and minor thermal gas are thought to be predominantly sourced from Lower Oligocene horizons (Schöneck and Eggerding formations). The source rocks are immature where the oil fields are located and enter the oil window at ca. 4 km depth beneath the Alpine nappes indicating long-distance lateral migration. Most important reservoirs are Upper Cretaceous and Eocene basal sandstones.Stable carbon isotope and biomarker ratios of oils from different reservoirs indicate compositional trends in W-E direction which reflect differences in source, depositional environment (facies), and maturity of potential source rocks. Thermal maturity parameters from oils of different fields are only in the western part consistent with northward displacement of immature oils by subsequently generated oils. In the eastern part of the basin different migration pathways must be assumed. The trend in S/(S + R) isomerisation of ααα-C₂₉ steranes versus the αββ (20R)/ααα (20R) C₂₉ steranes ratio from oil samples can be explained by differences in thermal maturation without involving long-distance migration. The results argue for hydrocarbon migration through highly permeable carrier beds or open faults rather than relatively short migration distances from the source. The lateral distance of oil fields to the position of mature source rocks beneath the Alpine nappes in the south suggests minimum migration distances between less than 20 km and more than 50 km.Biomarker compositions of the oils suggest Oligocene shaly to marly successions (i.e. Schoeneck, Dynow, and Eggerding formations) as potential source rocks, taking into account their immature character. Best matches are obtained between the oils and units a/b (marly shale) and c (black shale) of the “normal” Schöneck Formation, as well as with the so-called “Oberhofen Facies”. Results from open system pyrolysis-gas chromatography of potential source rocks indicate slightly higher sulphur content of the resulting pyrolysate from unit b. The enhanced dibenzothiophene/phenanthrene ratios of oils from the western part of the basin would be consistent with a higher contribution of unit b to hydrocarbon expulsion in this area. Differences in the relative contribution of sedimentary units to oil generation are inherited from thickness variations of respective units in the overthrusted sediments. The observed trend towards lighter δ¹³C values of hydrocarbon fractions from oil fields in a W-E direction are consistent with lower δ¹³C values of organic matter in unit c.     

Hydrogeochemical modelling of fluid–rock interactions triggered by seawater injection into oil reservoirs: Case study Miller field (UK North Sea)

A hydrogeochemical model is presented and applied to quantitatively elucidate interdependent reactions among minerals and formation water–seawater mixtures at elevated levels of CO₂ partial pressure. These hydrogeochemical reactions (including scale formation) occur within reservoir aquifers and wells and are driven by seawater injection. The model relies on chemical equilibrium thermodynamics and reproduces the compositional development of the produced water (formation water–seawater mixtures) of the Miller field, UK North Sea. This composition of the produced water deviates from its calculated composition, which could result solely from mixing of both the end members (formation water and seawater). This indicates the effect of hydrogeochemical reactions leading to the formation and/or the dissolution of mineral phases.     

AstroGrid-D: Grid technology for astronomical science

We present status and results of AstroGrid-D, a joint effort of astrophysicists and computer scientists to employ grid technology for scientific applications. AstroGrid-D provides access to a network of distributed machines with a set of commands as well as software interfaces. It allows simple use of computer and storage facilities and to schedule or monitor compute tasks and data management. It is based on the Globus Toolkit middleware (GT4).Chapter 1 describes the context which led to the demand for advanced software solutions in Astrophysics, and we state the goals of the project.We then present characteristic astrophysical applications that have been implemented on AstroGrid-D in chapter 2. We describe simulations of different complexity, compute-intensive calculations running on multiple sites (Section 2.1), and advanced applications for specific scientific purposes (Section 2.2), such as a connection to robotic telescopes (Section 2.2.3). We can show from these examples how grid execution improves e.g. the scientific workflow.Chapter 3 explains the software tools and services that we adapted or newly developed. Section 3.1 is focused on the administrative aspects of the infrastructure, to manage users and monitor activity. Section 3.2 characterises the central components of our architecture: The AstroGrid-D information service to collect and store metadata, a file management system, the data management system, and a job manager for automatic submission of compute tasks.We summarise the successfully established infrastructure in chapter 4, concluding with our future plans to establish AstroGrid-D as a platform of modern e-Astronomy.     

Bacterial methane in the Atzbach-Schwanenstadt gas field (upper Austrian Molasse Basin), Part II: Retracing gas generation and filling history by mass balancing of organic carbon conversion applying hydrogeochemical modelling

In the Austrian Molasse Basin bacterial methane gas accumulations occur in Upper Oligocene to early Miocene deepwater clastic sediments. Gas is produced from the Upper Puchkirchen Formation (Aquitanian) in the Atzbach-Schwanenstadt gas field.     

Bacterial methane in the Atzbach-Schwanenstadt gas field (Upper Austrian Molasse Basin), Part I: Geology

Bacterial methane gas accumulations occur in Upper Oligocene to Early Miocene clastic deepwater sediments in the Austrian Molasse Basin. Methane gas is produced from the Upper Puchkirchen Fm. (Aquitanian) in the Atzbach-Schwanenstadt gas field which is one of the largest gas fields in this basin.     

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: An Evolution of Conceptual Thinking

Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change.