Socioeconomic vulnerability and electric power restoration timelines in Florida: the case of Hurricane Irma

Large-scale damage to the power infrastructure from hurricanes and high-wind events can have devastating ripple effects on infrastructure, the broader economy, households, communities, and regions. Using Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida as a case study, we examined: (1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates between urban and rural counties; (2) the duration of electric power outages in counties exposed to tropical storm force winds versus hurricane Category 1 force winds; and (3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic vulnerability. We used power outage data for the period September 9, 2017–September 29, 2017. At the peak of the power outages following Hurricane Irma, over 36% of all accounts in Florida were without electricity. We found that the rural counties, predominantly served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities, experienced longer power outages and much slower and uneven restoration times. Results of three spatial lag models show that large percentages of customers served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities were a strong predictor of the duration of extended power outages. There was also a strong positive association across all three models between power outage duration and urban/rural county designation. Finally, there is positive spatial dependence between power outages and several social vulnerability indicators. Three socioeconomic variables found to be statistically significant highlight three different aspects of vulnerability to power outages: minority groups, population with sensory, physical and mental disability, and economic vulnerability expressed as unemployment rate. The findings from our study have broader planning and policy relevance beyond our case study area, and highlight the need for additional research to deepen our understanding of how power restoration after hurricanes contributes to and is impacted by the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of communities.     

NSVS 2569022:a peculiar binary among W UMa stars with extremely small mass ratios

Photometric observations of the W UMa binary NSVS 2569022 are presented. The light curve solution reveals that both components are of F spectral type(temperatures T_1= T_2= 6100 K). NSVS2569022 undergoes a total eclipse of W subtype and the mass ratio is well-determined. Its extremely small value of only 0.077 implies that the target will probably experience instability and a possible merger. This value ranks NSVS 2569022 in sixth place among binaries with the smallest mass ratio.Based on an empirical relation of "period – total mass" for low mass-ratio binaries, we estimate the global parameters of NSVS 2569022: masses M_1= 1.17 M⊙and M_2= 0.09 M⊙; radii R_1= 1.19 R⊙and R_2= 0.38 R⊙; luminosities L_1= 1.73 L⊙and L_2= 0.17 L⊙. An analysis of the characteristics of binaries with extremely low-mass ratios is made. NSVS 2569022 turns out to be a peculiar binary among W UMa stars with extremely small mass ratios due to its unexpectedly small fill-out factor of only 0.014(slightly overcontact configuration).     

New observations and transit solutions of the inflated exoplanets HAT-P-40b and HAT-P-51b

We present high-precision photometric observations of the transiting exoplanets HAT-P-40 b and HAT-P-51 b by the Rozhen 2-m telescope.The newly-observed transit of HAT-P-40 b is the first one with a complete curve.The orbital periods of the two targets were improved.We modeled the observed transits and found bigger stellar radii than those derived from the stellar models.The planet radii of HATP-40 b and HAT-P-51 b obtained from our transit solutions are bigger than the values calculated by the empirical relations for Jupiter-mass and Saturn-mass planets respectively.Their values reveal the highlyinflated nature of the two targets,especially that of HAT-P-51 b.We established that the best transit solutions correspond to a quadratic limb-darkening law.The fitted limb-darkening coefficients of HAT-P-40 are close to the theoretical ones while those of HAT-P-51 are a little different.The precise astrometric Gaia distances of the two targets are smaller by 6%–7%than the calculated values from the stellar models.We propose the Gaia distances to be used for improvement of the stellar models as well as for more reliable calculation of the parameters of the known exoplanets.     

Influence of Intra- and Interspecific Interactions on Short-term Movement of the Amphipod Corophium volutator in Varying Environmental Conditions

Movement of animals on intertidal mudflats can have profound consequences for population and community dynamics. Such movement is often influenced by biotic interactions, but the abiotic environment can also be important, affecting the strength of species’ interactions and even changing their outcome. Here, we focused on two biotic interactions and examined their effect on movement of the burrow-dwelling amphipod Corophium volutator: intraspecific interactions (specifically, the effect of conspecific density) and interspecific interactions with a competitor–predator, the mud snail Ilyanassa obsoleta (=Nassarius obsoletus). We assessed the magnitude of the temporal variation and examined the influence of pertinent abiotic variables (lunar cycle, presence of tide pools). Despite substantial temporal variation in movement levels, density of conspecifics did not influence emigration or immigration rates of C. volutator. Mud snails negatively affected immigration of C. volutator, and this was consistent across all lunar phases. However, mud snails influenced mortality and emigration of C. volutator in a contrasting way relative to lunar phases; sometimes amphipods evaded snails and survived, but at other times did not emigrate and were killed. The presence of tide pools did not change the nature or strength of the snail–amphipod interaction. Our results further clarify the complex interactions between C. volutator and I. obsoleta and suggest that resources on the mudflat are sufficient to sustain high densities of amphipods in a density-independent manner. Further, they highlight the importance of considering multiple environmental variables when examining interspecific interactions.     

Relations between the emplacement and fabric-forming conditions of the Kapitan-Dimitrievo pluton and the Maritsa shear zone (Central Bulgaria): magnetic and visible fabrics analysis

The Kapitan-Dimitrievo pluton was emplaced within the 15 km wide Maritsa shear zone during the Late Cretaceous. It has well-known U–Pb zircon age (78.54 ± 0.13 Ma) and appears as a late-syntectonic intrusion that marked the last ductile deformation in the Maritsa shear zone. Magnetite is believed to be the main carrier of the magnetic fabric in this pluton, and crystallized mainly late, after the main rock-forming minerals. Two fabrics are recorded, a visible syn-magmatic fabric (due to magma flow) and magnetic late-magmatic fabric (related to regional stresses). Although different, both are mainly related to the shearing along this shear zone. These results constrain in age the dextral strike-slip controlled emplacement and evolution of the Late Cretaceous plutons from Central Bulgaria.     

Coastal neotectonics in Southern Central Andes: uplift and deformation of marine terraces in Northern Chile (27°S)

Neotectonic observations allow a new interpretation of the recent tectonic behaviour of the outer fore arc in the Caldera area, northern Chile (27°S). Two periods of deformation are distinguished, based on large-scale Neogene to Quaternary features of the westernmost part of the Coastal Cordillera: Late Miocene to Early Pliocene deformations, characterized by a weak NE–SW to E–W extension is followed by uppermost Pliocene NW–SE to E–W compression. The Middle Pleistocene to Recent time is characterized by vertical uplift and NW–SE extension. These deformations provide clear indications of the occurrence of moderate to large earthquakes. Microseismic observations, however, indicate a lack of shallow crustal seismicity in coastal zone. We propose that both long-term brittle deformation and uplift are linked to the subduction seismic cycle.     

Variations in exospheric density at heights near 1100km, derived from satellite orbits

In an earlier paper, values of exospheric density were obtained from the orbit of Echo 2 for the years 1964–1965. The results indicated a semi-annual variation in density by a factor of between 2 and 3, considerably larger than predicted by existing atmospheric models.

These studies have now been extended to the beginning of 1967, using both Echo 2 and Calsphere 1, to show how the density is responding to increasing solar activity. Variations in density during 1964 have been analysed in more detail. The long-term variation associated with the solar cycle and the short-term variations associated with magnetic and solar disturbances agree with the variations expected on the basis of current models. The semi-annual variation is persisting to higher levels of solar activity, and although its amplitude is diminishing the factor of variation was still 1.6 in 1966.     

Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff

Particular attention is given to the reliability of hydrological modelling results. The accuracy of river runoff projection depends on the selected set of hydrological model parameters, emission scenario and global climate model. The aim of this article is to estimate the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters, to perform sensitivity analysis of the runoff projections, as well as the contribution analysis of uncertainty sources (model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models) in forecasting Lithuanian river runoff. The impact of model parameters on the runoff modelling results was estimated using a sensitivity analysis for the selected hydrological periods (spring flood, winter and autumn flash floods, and low water). During spring flood the results of runoff modelling depended on the calibration parameters that describe snowmelt and soil moisture storage, while during the low water period—the parameter that determines river underground feeding was the most important. The estimation of climate change impact on hydrological processes in the Merkys and Neris river basins was accomplished through the combination of results from A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios and global climate models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3). The runoff projections of the thirty-year periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) were conducted applying the HBV software. The uncertainties introduced by hydrological model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models were presented according to the magnitude of the expected changes in Lithuanian rivers runoff. The emission scenarios had much greater influence on the runoff projection than the global climate models. The hydrological model parameters had less impact on the reliability of the modelling results.     

Response of the topside ionosphere over Arecibo to a moderate geomagnetic storm

We analyze the data obtained using the Arecibo incoherent scatter radar to examine the response of the topside ionosphere to a moderate geomagnetic storm that occurred during the period March 7–11, 2008. During this time period a magnetic storm with a non-monotonic main phase decrease in the Dst index occurred. The recovery phase also exhibited a secondary Dst decrease. During the initial phase of the storm, Te and Ti increased coincident with the arrival of the solar wind. The main phase registered an increase in proton concentration proportional to Ne while temperatures reached the lowest values. Variations in O⁺ concentration were not significant but a reduction in helium fraction was observed. Soon after the peak of the storm, the transition height between the topside ionosphere and the protonosphere, where H⁺ ions dominate composition, was lower than would be expected during quiet conditions and this behavior lasted for approximately 12 h.