The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the
NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is
to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation
associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea
surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1°C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO2, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model captures modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution
of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution
model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs
were only 2.1°C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4–6°C colder than present. Comparison
of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now
yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in
the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased
lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore
appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more
clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable
more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in
the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part
of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age—consistent with many (but not all) paleo
data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate
responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable
to that which the proxy data represent. 相似文献
In the middle of 2007, a severe flood affected the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. This is a natural disaster that takes
people’s lives, destroys livestock, infrastructures and communication systems and, damages crops and fish ponds. Despite many
adverse impacts, the flood situation is an accepted phenomenon to the citizens of Bangladesh, due to the immense increase
of soil fertility due to the flood, plus, the recharge of aquifer, ecosystem and fish. The flood of 2007 was the 5th major
flood of the last 20 years when more than thirty-five percent of the area of the country was inundated with flood water. As
in the past, the flood of 2007 had its own significance. The geography of the country contains a floodplain delta of three
major river basins: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna (GBM). The mean monthly rainfall plot from the TRMM satellite
data has shown that for both the Meghna and Brahmaputra basins, the rainfall was higher during July 2007 than any other months
of the last 2 years. This excess rainfall had accumulated in the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers and carried downstream to Bangladesh.
This was the main cause of the flooding in 2007. The first crossing above the danger level of the river waters was observed
at Durgapur station of the Someswari and at Sunamganj station of the Surma on the nineteenth of July, 2007 inside Bangladesh.
In terms of magnitude of the peak and duration of the flood, the Brahmaputra was higher in 2007 than during 2004. However,
the Ganges river water level never crossed the danger level during flood of 2007. The Meghna was lower during the flood peak
for the duration of the flood in 2007. The year–to-year variability in both the magnitude and duration of the flood suggests
changes in rainfall and landuse pattern of the catchment. 相似文献
The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6?±?1 Gta?1, which decreases about sixfold to -35?±?2 Gta?1 by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12?±?2 Gta?1 by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face ‘eventual disappearance’ by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios. 相似文献
The VRANCEA99 seismic refraction experiment is part of an international and multidisciplinary project to study the intermediate depth earthquakes of the Eastern Carpathians in Romania. As part of the seismic experiment, a 300-km-long refraction profile was recorded between the cities of Bacau and Bucharest, traversing the Vrancea epicentral region in NNE–SSW direction.
The results deduced using forward and inverse ray trace modelling indicate a multi-layered crust. The sedimentary succession comprises two to four seismic layers of variable thickness and with velocities ranging from 2.0 to 5.8 km/s. The seismic basement coincides with a velocity step up to 5.9 km/s. Velocities in the upper crystalline crust are 5.9–6.2 km/s. An intra-crustal discontinuity at 18–31 km divides the crust into an upper and a lower layer. Velocities within the lower crust are 6.7–7.0 km/s. Strong wide-angle PmP reflections indicate the existence of a first-order Moho at a depth of 30 km near the southern end of the line and 41 km near the centre. Constraints on upper mantle seismic velocities (7.9 km/s) are provided by Pn arrival times from two shot points only. Within the upper mantle a low velocity zone is interpreted. Travel times of a PLP reflection define the bottom of this low velocity layer at a depth of 55 km. The velocity beneath this interface must be at least 8.5 km/s.
Geologic interpretation of the seismic data suggests that the Neogene tectonic convergence of the Eastern Carpathians resulted in thin-skinned shortening of the sedimentary cover and in thick-skinned shortening in the crystalline crust. On the autochthonous cover of the Moesian platform several blocks can be recognised which are characterised by different lithological compositions. This could indicate a pre-structuring of the platform at Mesozoic and/or Palaeozoic times with a probable active involvement of the Intramoesian and the Capidava–Ovidiu faults. Especially the Intramoesian fault is clearly recognisable on the refraction line. No clear indications of the important Trotus fault in the north of the profile could be found. In the central part of the seismic line a thinned lower crust and the low velocity zone in the uppermost mantle point to the possibility of crustal delamination and partial melting in the upper mantle. 相似文献
The solution of two-dimensional problem of an interface breaking long inclined dip-slip fault in two welded half-spaces is
well known. The purpose of this note is to obtain the corresponding solution for a blind fault. The solution is valid for
arbitrary values of the fault-depth and the dip angle. Graphs showing the variation of the displacement field with the distance
from the fault, for different values of fault depth and dip angle are presented. Contour maps showing the stress field around
a long dip-slip fault are also obtained 相似文献
We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated. 相似文献
Indoor radon is considered as one of the potential dangerous radioactive elements. Common building materials and soil are the major source of this radon gas in the indoor environment. In the present study, the measurement of radon exhalation rate in the soil and building material samples of Una and Hamirpur districts of Himachal Pradesh has been done with solid state alpha track detectors, LR-115 type-II plastic track detectors. The radon exhalation rate for the soil samples varies from 39.1 to 91.2 mBq kg?1 h?1 with a mean value 59.7 mBq kg?1 h?1. Also the radium concentration of the studied area is found and it varies from 30.6 to 51.9 Bq kg?1 with a mean value 41.6 Bq kg?1. The exhalation rate for the building material samples varies from 40.72 (sandstone) to 81.40 mBq kg?1 h?1 (granite) with a mean value of 59.94 mBq kg?1 h?1. 相似文献
Recent studies have shown that changes in global mean precipitation are larger for solar forcing than for CO2 forcing of similar magnitude. In this paper, we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the differences originate from differing fast responses of the climate system. We estimate the adjusted radiative forcing and fast response using Hansen’s “fixed-SST forcing” method. Total climate system response is calculated using mixed layer simulations using the same model. Our analysis shows that the fast response is almost 40% of the total response for few key variables like precipitation and evaporation. We further demonstrate that the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the change in global mean precipitation per unit warming, is the same for the two forcings when the fast responses are excluded from the definition of hydrologic sensitivity, suggesting that the slow response (feedback) of the hydrological cycle is independent of the forcing mechanism. Based on our results, we recommend that the fast and slow response be compared separately in multi-model intercomparisons to discover and understand robust responses in hydrologic cycle. The significance of this study to geoengineering is discussed. 相似文献