EURONEAR—Recovery, follow-up and discovery of NEAs and MBAs using large field 1–2 m telescopes

We report on the follow-up and recovery of 100 program NEAs, PHAs and VIs using the ESO/MPG 2.2 m, Swope 1 m and INT 2.5 m telescopes equipped with large field cameras. The 127 fields observed during 11 nights covered 29 square degrees. Using these data, we present the incidental survey work which includes 558 known MBAs and 628 unknown moving objects mostly consistent with MBAs from which 58 objects became official discoveries. We planned the runs using six criteria and four servers which focus mostly on faint and poorly observed objects in need of confirmation, follow-up and recovery. We followed 62 faint NEAs within one month after discovery and we recovered 10 faint NEAs having big uncertainties at their second or later opposition. Using the INT we eliminated four PHA candidates and VIs. We observed in total 1286 moving objects and we reported more than 10,000 positions. All data were reduced by the members of our network in a team effort, and reported promptly to the MPC. The positions of the program NEAs were published in 27 MPC and MPEC references and used to improve their orbits. The O−C residuals for known MBAs and program NEAs are smallest for the ESO/MPG and Swope and about four times larger for the INT whose field is more distorted. For the astrometric reduction, the UCAC-2 catalog is recommended instead of USNO-B1. The incidental survey allowed us to study statistics of the MBA and NEA populations observable today with 1–2 m facilities. We calculate preliminary orbits for all unknown objects, classifying them as official discoveries, later identifications and unknown outstanding objects. The orbital elements a, e, i calculated by FIND_ORB software for the official discoveries and later identified objects are very similar with the published elements which take into account longer observational arcs; thus preliminary orbits were used in statistics for the whole unknown dataset. We present a basic model which can be used to distinguish between MBAs and potential NEAs in any sky survey. Based on three evaluation methods, most of our unknown objects are consistent with MBAs, while up to 16 unknown objects could represent NEO candidates and four represent our best NEO candidates. We assessed the observability of the unknown MBA and NEA populations using 1 and 2 m surveys. Employing a 1 m facility, one can observe today fewer unknown objects than known MBAs and very few new NEOs. Using a 2 m facility, a slightly larger number of unknown than known asteroids could be detected in the main belt. Between 0.1 and 0.8 new NEO candidates per square degree could be discovered using a 2 m telescope.     

Geomorphologic map of the 1<Superscript>st</Superscript> Mutnaya River,Southeastern Kamchatka,Russia

The Kamchatka Peninsula–situated in the Pacific “Ring of Fire”–has 29 active and over 400 extinct volcanoes. Since it is situated in the northeastern extremity of Russia, in subarctic climate, the volcanic landforms are overprinted by the 446 glaciers. This research focuses on the 1^stMutnaya catchment which drains the southern slopes of two active volcanoes: Avachinsky and Koryaksky. Those volcanoes are a permanent threat for the cities of Petropavlovsk and Elizovo, which are the 2 of 3 cities of the peninsula. Hence, most of the studies carried out in the area dealt with the natural hazards and only few focus on landscape evolution. Thus, the purpose of this study was to elaborate a cartographic approach which integrates classic geomorphology with state of the art GIS and remote sensing techniques. As result, different landforms and related processes have been analysed and included in the first general geomorphologic map of the 1^stMutnaya catchment.     

Ecological compensation for desertification control: A review

Desertification control is a crucial way to enhancing the ecological conditions of arid and semi-arid regions, and maintaining sustainable development globally. Designing and improving an ecological compensation mechanism for desertification control has great significance related to achieving balance amongst the needs of different economic subjects and the assurance of a sustained and stable supply of desert ecosystem services. In this paper, (1) the theoretical bases of ecological compensation for desertification control were re-analyzed; (2) the research status and challenges of three important topics related to ecological compensation for desertification control were systemically discussed, including compensation standards, ecosystem service supply-consumption process and multi-scale effects, and resource- environment basis and policy orientation; (3) a research framework of ecological compensation for desertification control based on the process of desert ecosystem service supply–flow–consumption was proposed; (4) and finally, seven priority research issues were discussed, which aimed to support ecological compensation policy-making and ecological engineering implementation for desertification control.     

Influence of the largest asteroids on the orbital motions of terrestrial planets: application to the Earth and Mars

The level of precision of modern numerical ephemeris of the Solar System necessitates taking into account the gravitational influence of the largest asteroids on the terrestrial planets. This can be done in a straightforward manner when assuming that the mass of the asteroid is well known. Nevertheless, this is rarely the case, even for the largest asteroids. In this paper, we use recent determinations of the masses of Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta to both qualitatively and quantitatively determine the action of these asteroids on the orbital parameters of the Earth and Mars. This is done by the numerical integration by comparing the orbital motions of the perturbed planet when adding or not the perturbing asteroid to the classical 9 bodies problem (the Sun + the eight planets). Some preliminary results are discussed. Published in Russian in Astronomicheskii Vestnik, 2009, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 83–86. The text was submitted by the autors in English.     

Confidence Intervals of Quantiles in Hydrology Computed by an Analytical Method

Fitting probability distributions to hydrologic data samples is widely used for quantile estimation purposes. The estimated quantile (X^_T) is related to a return period (T). The confidence interval associated with each of the estimates has been calculated empirically, up until now, supposing that the quantile estimator is normally distributed. In this study, it is shown that the confidence interval follows a normal distribution only in the central part of the distribution. The real confidence limits are computed analytically, by defining and integrating the probability density function of the confidence interval. The results with an important number of hydrologic samples show that the upper confidence limits are significantly underestimated towards the tail of the distribution, when determined using the normality approximation for the quantile estimator.     

An earthquake-source-based metric for seismic fragility analysis

The seismic fragility of a system is the probability that the system enters a damage state under seismic ground motions with specified characteristics. Plots of the seismic fragilities with respect to scalar ground motion intensity measures are called fragility curves. Recent studies show that fragility curves may not be satisfactory measures for structural seismic performance, since scalar intensity measures cannot comprehensively characterize site seismicity. The limitations of traditional seismic intensity measures, e.g., peak ground acceleration or pseudo-spectral acceleration, are shown and discussed in detail. A bivariate vector with coordinates moment magnitude m and source-to-site distance r is proposed as an alternative seismic intensity measure. Implicitly, fragility surfaces in the (m, r)-space could be used as graphical representations of seismic fragility. Unlike fragility curves, which are functions of scalar intensity measures, fragility surfaces are characterized by two earthquake-hazard parameters, (m, r). The calculation of fragility surfaces may be computationally expensive for complex systems. Thus, as solutions to this issue, a bi-variate log-normal parametric model and an efficient calculation method, based on stochastic-reduced-order models, for fragility surfaces are proposed.     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: I. An introduction to the project

We investigated paleolimnological records from a series of river deltas around the northeastern rim of Lake Tanganyika, East Africa (Tanzania and Burundi) in order to understand the history of anthropogenic activity in the lakes catchment over the last several centuries, and to determine the impact of these activities on the biodiversity of littoral and sublittoral lake communities. Sediment pollution caused by increased rates of soil erosion in deforested watersheds has caused significant changes in aquatic communities along much of the lakes shoreline. We analyzed the effects of sediment discharge on biodiversity around six deltas or delta complexes on the east coast of Lake Tanganyika: the Lubulungu River delta, Kabesi River delta, Nyasanga/Kahama River deltas, and Mwamgongo River delta in Tanzania; and the Nyamuseni River delta and Karonge/Kirasa River deltas in Burundi. Collectively, these deltas and their associated rivers were chosen to represent a spectrum of drainage-basin sizes and disturbance levels. By comparing deltas that are similar in watershed attributes (other than disturbance levels), our goal was to explore a series of historical experiments at the watershed scale, with which we could more clearly evaluate hypotheses of land use or other effects on nearshore ecosystems. Here we discuss these deltas, their geologic and physiographic characteristics, and the field procedures used for coring and sampling the deltas, and various indicators of anthropogenic impact.     

Photometric and astrometric analysis of a mutual event between the Uranian satellites Miranda and Oberon

Observations of the predicted occultation between the satellites Miranda and Oberon were performed on 2007 July 30. Data analysis reveals that the predicted magnitude drop for this phenomenon was overestimated and we establish an upper limit of 0^m. 05 for the phenomenon, perhaps due to a non‐lambertian limb scattering. The new astrometry obtained from this run is in good agreement with the LA06 numerical model and these new data will improve the dynamical models of the Uranus system. The paper concludes with an uncertainty analysis on the parameters for the event, determined by the uncertainty of the magnitude drop of about 0.04 mag, and the difficulty to observe mutual phenomena between satellites in the Uranian system. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: IV. Lacustrine paleoecology

Fossil invertebrates from cores collected in Lake Tanganyika provide a record of probable nearshore ecological response to recent watershed deforestation and sediment erosion in several East African watersheds. We compared paleoecological profiles (primarily from ostracodes) from watersheds spanning a range of sizes and present-day deforestation disturbance levels to understand the timing and magnitude of faunal changes, and their relationship in time to terrestrially-derived disturbance indicators. Profiles from the Lubulungu and Nyasanga/Kahama Rivers (Tanzania) provide a record of faunal variability in watersheds that are currently undisturbed with respect to deforestation. These records indicate continuous faunal turnover through time. However, this pattern of turnover is accompanied by relatively high levels of diversity throughout the record, with no wholesale extinction events. Ostracode taphonomic data and other fossil abundance data from the Lubulungu area provide strong evidence in support of at least two episodes of lower lake levels, associated with episodes of Late Holocene aridity. Records from deltas of disturbed watersheds at the Kabesi River (Tanzania) and those of Northern Burundi all show a combination of profound and abrupt faunal turnover, in some cases accompanied by local extinction and establishment of a few dominant taxa. At the Mwamgongo River delta, fed from a very small, disturbed watershed, species turnover was subtler. In disturbed watershed cores showing abrupt faunal changes the transitions mostly occurred in the late 19th to early 20th centuries, predating the major mid-20th century increase in sediment mass accumulation rates, with the latter only correlated with changing fossil abundance and flux. However, the earlier faunal community changes are contemporaneous with both palynological and geochemical changes in the core profiles indicative of changing land-use patterns. This suggests that lacustrine ecosystem response to deforestation was a two-stage process, with an earlier phase of response to changing quality of sediments or dissolved matter being discharged from the watershed, and a subsequent phase responding to increased quantity of sediment.