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André Lyra Pablo Imbach Daniel Rodriguez Sin Chan Chou Selena Georgiou Lucas Garofolo 《Climatic change》2017,141(1):93-105
Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO2 sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO2 fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America. 相似文献
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Summary A new method of four-dimensional data assimilation based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is proposed. In it, a set of
atmospheric states is obtained by integrating a numerical weather prediction model and simulated observations are taken and
calculated from the model variables. Then the SVD technique is used to create the base vectors from this coupled data set.
Finally, the analysis is obtained by projecting actual observation data into a space spanned by the base vectors. Using this
approach, the four-dimensional data assimilation becomes a simple linear inverse problem the linearization of the nonlinear
forward model is avoided, and the developments of the adjoint and background error covariance matrix are no longer needed.
Since the SVD technique is used here, the method is simply called 4DSVD. 相似文献
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用三年冬半年15个月500毫巴逐日资料,计算写成谱函数形式的角动量涡动输送,研究其周期变化.输送总值(波数k=1-12的总和)盛行准两周的周期,逐年差别不大.k=3波输送值也盛行准两周周期,近于同输送总值同位相,而且负担了50%以上的输送总值.其他波数,k=2盛行26天左右周期,k=4盛行12天左右周期,但这些波的变化幅度比k=3波小得多.初步考察了准两周周期同寒潮的关系. 用解纬圈谱法,选例考察k=3波的槽脊走向和振幅,有同角动量输送准两周变化相应的变化. 最后采用功率谱和交叉谱的分析法,对1976-1977年角动量输送进行统计上处理,得到一些与定性分析相同的结果. 相似文献
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On the estimation of surface radiation using satellite data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Ming-Dah Chou 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1989,40(1-2):25-36
Summary Model calculations are used to investigate the uncertainties in the surface radiative flux empirically derived from satellite radiation measurements and theoretically calculated from radiation models using satellite-inferred cloud parameters. The empirical approach depends upon how well the satellite-measured radiances (represented here by the top-of-the-atmosphere flux) correlate with the net flux at the surface. The model calculations show that while the TOA flux and the net surface flux are correlated with respect to changes in optical thickness, they are not correlated with respect to changes in cloud height and negatively correlated with respect to changes in water vapor content. It is also found that the solar zenith angle has a strong effect on these relationships. It is, therefore, important to correct for the effects of atmospheric water vapor content and the solar zenith angle in the empirical estimation of surface radiative flux.The theoretical approach depends upon the net effect of the uncertainty in satellite-inferred cloud parameters. In the solar spectral region, the effects of the uncertainty in satellite retrieval of could cover and optical thickness on the net downward surface flux are systematically in opposite directions, so that the combined effects is typically small (< 7 Wm–2). In the thermal infrared region, an error of 7 Wm–2 could be induced by an uncertainty of 100 mb in the cloud-base height or an uncertainty of 0.1 in the fractional cloud cover. As opposed to what is commonly perceived, the error in the surface flux is likely to be larger in the IR region than in the solar spectral region.
With 11 Figures 相似文献
Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden mit Hilfe von Modellberechnungen die Unsicherheiten in den durch Satellitenmessungen empirisch gewonnenen Strahlungsflüssen an der Oberfläche und jene, die bei der Benützung von Strahlungsmodellen, die auf mit Satelliten abgeleiteten Wolkenparametern beruhen, verglichen. Die Gültigkeit des empirischen Näherungsverfahren ist davon abhängig, wie sehr die vom Satelliten gemessene Strahlung (im weiteren als top-of-the-atmosphere flux — TOA — bezeichnet) mit dem Nettostrahlungsfluß an der Oberfläche korreliert. Die Modellberechnungen zeigen, daß TOA-Fluß und Nettostrahlungsfluß an der Oberfläche zwar in bezug auf Änderungen der optischen Dicke, nicht aber in bezug auf Änderungen der Wolkenhöhe korreliert sind, während sie in bezug auf Veränderungen des Wasserdampfgehalts negativ korreliert sind. Es zeigt sich weiters, daß der Zenithwinkel der Sonne einen wesentlichen Einfluß auf diese Zusammenhänge hat. Daher ist es wichtig, die Auswirkungen des atmosphärischen Wasserdampfgehalts und des Sonnenzenithwinkels in den empirischen Berechnungen des Strahlungsflusses an der Oberfläche zu korrigieren.Der theroretische Ansatz ist abhängig vom Einfluß der Unsicherheiten der satellitenermittelten Wolkenparameter. Im solaren Spektralbereich wird der zur Oberfläche gerichtete Nettofluß durch die Unsicherheiten in der satellitenermittelten Wolkendecke und der optischen Dicke systematisch in entgegengesetzter Richtung beeinflußt, so daß der gemeinsame Effekt im allgemeinen gering bleibt (< 7 Wm–2). Im thermischen Infrarotbereich kann ein Fehler von 7 Wm–2 durch eine Unsicherheit von 100 mb in der Wolkenbasishöhe oder von 0.1 in der Bedeckung hervorgerufen werden. Im Gegensatz zur weitverbreiteten Ansicht ist also der Fehler bei Berechnungen des Flusses an der Oberfläche im thermischen Infrarotbereich aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach größer als im solaren Spektrum.
With 11 Figures 相似文献
8.
PREDICTABILITY LEVELS OF MONTHLY FORECAST BASED ON TIME-AVERAGED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE VARIABLES —A NATURALLY OCCURRING ANALOGUE STUDY 下载免费PDF全文
Naturally occurring analogues between the monthly averaged data of 1000,500 and 100 hPa geopotential height and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific,Atlantic and Indian Oceans during the period January 1956-December 1972 are used to study the potential predictability levels of forecasting the monthly mean ocean/atmosphere variables.It is found that in the ocean-atmosphere system the forecast of geopotential height may be more difficult than SST,and that the predictability level of monthly mean geopotential height anomaly calculated from the corresponding monthly mean SST appears relatively poor,but it can be improved by using the past observational data of monthly mean SST/geopotential fields. 相似文献
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