Seal integrity and feasibility of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> sequestration in the Teapot Dome EOR pilot: geomechanical site characterization

This paper reports a preliminary investigation of CO₂ sequestration and seal integrity at Teapot Dome oil field, Wyoming, USA, with the objective of predicting the potential risk of CO₂ leakage along reservoir-bounding faults. CO₂ injection into reservoirs creates anomalously high pore pressure at the top of the reservoir that could potentially hydraulically fracture the caprock or trigger slip on reservoir-bounding faults. The Tensleep Formation, a Pennsylvanian age eolian sandstone is evaluated as the target horizon for a pilot CO₂ EOR-carbon storage experiment, in a three-way closure trap against a bounding fault, termed the S1 fault. A preliminary geomechanical model of the Tensleep Formation has been developed to evaluate the potential for CO₂ injection inducing slip on the S1 fault and thus threatening seal integrity. Uncertainties in the stress tensor and fault geometry have been incorporated into the analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. The authors find that even the most pessimistic risk scenario would require ∼10 MPa of excess pressure to cause the S1 fault to reactivate and provide a potential leakage pathway. This would correspond to a CO₂ column height of ∼1,500 m, whereas the structural closure of the Tensleep Formation in the pilot injection area does not exceed 100 m. It is therefore apparent that CO₂ injection is not likely to compromise the S1 fault stability. Better constraint of the least principal stress is needed to establish a more reliable estimate of the maximum reservoir pressure required to hydrofracture the caprock.     

Tidally incised valleys on tropical carbonate shelves: An example from the northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The formation of incised valleys on continental shelves is generally attributed to fluvial erosion under low sea level conditions. However, there are exceptions. A multibeam sonar survey at the northern end of Australia's Great Barrier Reef, adjacent to the southern edge of the Gulf of Papua, mapped a shelf valley system up to 220 m deep that extends for more than 90 km across the continental shelf. This is the deepest shelf valley yet found in the Great Barrier Reef and is well below the maximum depth of fluvial incision that could have occurred under a − 120 m, eustatic sea level low-stand, as what occurred on this margin during the last ice age. These valleys appear to have formed by a combination of reef growth and tidal current scour, probably in relation to a sea level at around 30–50 m below its present position.

Tidally incised depressions in the valley floor exhibit closed bathymetric contours at both ends. Valley floor sediments are mainly calcareous muddy, gravelly sand on the middle shelf, giving way to well-sorted, gravely sand containing a large relict fraction on the outer shelf. The valley extends between broad platform reefs and framework coral growth, which accumulated through the late Quaternary, coincides with tidal current scour to produce steep-sided (locally vertical) valley walls. The deepest segments of the valley were probably the sites of lakes during the last ice age, when Torres Strait formed an emergent land-bridge between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Numerical modeling predicts that the strongest tidal currents occur over the deepest, outer-shelf segment of the valley when sea level is about 40–50 m below its present position. These results are consistent with a Pleistocene age and relict origin of the valley.

Based on these observations, we propose a new conceptual model for the formation of tidally incised shelf valleys. Tidal erosion on meso- to macro-tidal, rimmed carbonate shelves is enhanced during sea level rise and fall when a tidal, hydraulic pressure gradient is established between the shelf-lagoon and the adjacent ocean basin. Tidal flows attain a maximum, and channel incision is greatest, when a large hydraulic pressure gradient coincides with small channel cross sections. Our tidal-incision model may explain the observation of other workers, that sediment is exported from the Great Barrier Reef shelf to the adjacent ocean basins during intermediate (rather than last glacial maximum) low-stand, sea level positions. The model may apply to other rimmed shelves, both modern and ancient.     

Large-scale mass wasting in ancient volcanic materials

Giant landslides are significant hazards associated with many active volcanic edifices. We describe a similar feature on ancient (>4 Ma) volcanic deposits subject to active tectonism. The landslide is approximately 3 km long by 1 km wide, with an estimated depth of 400 m. Side margins are straight and parallel, mimicking regional structure; narrow valleys incised down these margins provide low-strength side-release surfaces. Between these is a giant slump consisting of at least four, largely intact, discrete blocks that have moved down-dip a distance of >500 m. A series of flows with areal extents ranging from 0.01 to 0.5 km² extends from the front of the failure. The materials represent an eroded sequence of andesite flows on the flanks of a stratovolcano. These have undergone two phases of hydrothermal alteration, and are deeply weathered to low-density (1040±80 kg m⁻³) silt (59%) and clay (35%) materials with strength properties typical of weathered silts (c=26±3 kN m⁻²; φ=42±8°). The size and location of this landslide preclude detailed geotechnical investigation of the failure. The worth of numerical stability analysis as an alternative technique in assessing the nature of the failure and hence the risk it poses to nearby communities is investigated. Sensitivity analysis identified likely conditions under which initial failure may have occurred: analyses for sensitivity to strength and earthquake acceleration needed conversion to critical combinations (F=1.0) of water table and strength/acceleration to remove the overriding influence of water table fluctuations. Failure was likely initiated either by a high water table level (83-84%), or some combination of intensity VII-IX earthquake waves together with water table heights of 40-80%. A general hazard assessment indicates that the risk associated with creep and catastrophic failure of the main mass is small, whereas the risk from flow failures near the toe of the landslide may be high. Important parameters (hydrological regime, flow failure morphology, age of initiation, and rates of movement) requiring closer investigation are identified. Development of a model is crucial to assessing the hazard associated with a feature such as that described here. With limited resources, a detailed stability analysis is a powerful tool as an initial stage in hazard analysis.     

Geological controls on rock mass classification of coal from Huntly East Mine, New Zealand

Rock Mass Rating (RMR) measurements from 65 sites within Huntly East underground coal mine are presented. All measurements are in coal, for which the dominant discontinuities are vertical cleat. Basic RMR values using two discontinuity spacings are presented: overall RMR based on the average spacing of all individual discontinuities; and cleat zone RMR based on the average spacing between zones of cleat. Cleat orientations are highly variable, but on average approximately parallel horizontal stress axes (face cleat follows maximum horizontal stress axis, butt cleat follows minimum horizontal stress axis).Contours of RMR variations throughout the mine are used to compare rock mass conditions with geological structure. It is apparent that: (1) RMR is least within downthrown fault blocks, and particularly immediately on the downthrown sides of faults, and greatest in upthrown fault blocks; and (2) RMR contours parallel horizontal stress axes within fault-bounded blocks, and bend to parallel faults at block boundaries. From similar contours for parameters contributing to RMR, the Rock Quality Designation (RQD), groundwater rating, and discontinuity condition rating create most of the observed variations in RMR. RQD is determined from the measured discontinuity frequency and hence is a measure of the degree of fracturing of the rock mass. This is interpreted as influencing the groundwater and condition parameters directly by allowing greater water ingress. Discontinuity frequency is greatest (least spacing) in the immediate vicinity of faults, and in downthrown fault blocks, generating low RMR values. Within fault blocks RQD varies little, so RMR contours align with cleat orientations.As RMR contours, faults, stress field and cleat orientation are clearly interrelated, there is unequivocally a connection between RMR and structural geology; this allows some predictive capacity in terms of ground conditions. If geological features can be accurately defined through either drilling programs or seismic surveys, then ground conditions may be predicted before panels are driven.     

Middle Campanian–lowermost Maastrichtian nannofossil and foraminiferal biostratigraphy of the northwestern Australian margin

The middle–late Campanian was marked by an increase in the bioprovinciality of calcareous microfossil assemblages into distinct Tethyan, Transitional, and Austral Provinces that persisted to the end of the Maastrichtian. The northwestern Australian margin belonged to the Transitional Province and the absence of key Tethyan marker species such as Radotruncana calcarata and Gansserina gansseri has led petroleum companies operating in the area to use the locally developed KCCM integrated calcareous microfossil zonation scheme. The KCCM zonation is a composite scheme comprising calcareous nannofossil (KCN), planktonic foraminiferal (KPF) and benthonic foraminiferal (KBF) zones. This paper presents the definitions and revisions of Zones KCCM8–19, from the highest occurrence (HO) of Aspidolithus parcus constrictus to the lowest occurrence (LO) of Ceratolithoides aculeus, and builds on our previous early–late Maastrichtian study. The presence of a middle–upper Campanian disconformity is confirmed by microfossil evidence from the Vulcan Sub-basin, Exmouth and Wombat plateaus, and the Southern Carnarvon Platform. In the Vulcan Sub-basin and on the Exmouth Plateau (ODP Hole 762C) the hiatus extends from slightly above the LO of common Rugoglobigerina rugosa to above the LO of Quadrum gothicum. On the Wombat Plateau (ODP Hole 761B) it spans from above the LO of Heterohelix semicostata to above the LO of Quadrum gothicum; and in the Southern Carnarvon Platform the disconformity has its longest duration from above the HO of Heterohelix semicostata to above the LO of Quadrum sissinghii. A significant revision of the events which define Zones KCCM18 and 19 was necessary owing to the observation that the LO of Ceratolithoides aculeus occurs below the HOs of Archaeoglobigerina cretacea and Stensioeina granulata incondita and the LO of common Rugoglobigerina rugosa. In the original zonation these events were considered to be coincident.     

Summer temperature variability across four urban neighborhoods in Knoxville,Tennessee, USA

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city’s UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city’s UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 ^°C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38–1.16 ^°C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04–1.88 ^°C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being.     

Solar-Cycle Variation of Subsurface-Flow Divergence: A Proxy of Magnetic Activity?

We study the solar-cycle variation of subsurface flows from the surface to a depth of 16 Mm. We have analyzed Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Dopplergrams with a ring-diagram analysis covering about 15 years and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Dopplergrams covering more than 6 years. After subtracting the average rotation rate and meridional flow, we have calculated the divergence of the horizontal residual flows from the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 through the declining phase of Cycle 24. The subsurface flows are mainly divergent at quiet regions and convergent at locations of high magnetic activity. The relationship is essentially linear between divergence and magnetic activity at all activity levels at depths shallower than about 10 Mm. At greater depths, the relationship changes sign at locations of high activity; the flows are increasingly divergent at locations with a magnetic activity index (MAI) greater than about 24 G. The flows are more convergent by about a factor of two during the rising phase of Cycle 24 than during the declining phase of Cycle 23 at locations of medium and high activity (about 10 to 40 G MAI) from the surface to at least 10 Mm. The subsurface divergence pattern of Solar Cycle 24 first appears during the declining phase of Cycle 23 and is present during the extended minimum. It appears several years before the magnetic pattern of the new cycle is noticeable in synoptic maps. Using linear regression, we estimate the amount of magnetic activity that would be required to generate the precursor pattern and find that it should be almost twice the amount of activity that is observed.     

Climatic change and great lakes levels the impact on shipping

This paper represents an attempt to combine the output of several models that deal with future climatic, hydrologic and economic conditions in the Great Lakes and makes some predictions about the possible impact of one scenario of 2 × CO₂ climate on Great Lakes shipping. It is realized that there is a great deal of uncertainty in all the models and that improvements are continually being made. Data from a General Circulation Model of future temperature and precipitation in the Great Lakes basin, a Great Lakes levels and flows model from the Canada Centre for Inland Waters and an International Joint Commision's Great Lakes economic model modified by the University of Wisconsin were used. The 1900–1976 period of lake levels and flows was used. The hydrologic model indicated that future mean lake levels may be reduced by one-half meter, and that the extreme low levels of the mid 1960's could occur 77% of the time in the future. No ice cover is predicted for any lake except Erie, permitting an eleven month shipping season. Five scenarios of future impact on shipping were evaluated. It was found that mean annual shipping costs may increase by 30% and the frequency of years when costs exceed those of the period of low lake levels (1963–65) could rise to 97%. Possible policy options in a future with climatically induced lower lake levels could include regulation to keep levels artificially high by diversions into the system, or increased dredging of the connecting channels.     

Assessment of episodic acidification in Sierra Nevada,California

Monte-Carlo simulations were used to assess the extent of shortterm alkalinity depressions occuring in Sierra Nevada lakes due to acidic deposition events. The Episodic Event Model (EEM) was used to simulate spring snowmelt events. Snow course data, precipitation data and lake acidification surveys were used to derive values for the EEM parameters. Spring snowmelt events were shown to have great impacts on the water quality of Sierran lakes. Lakes are likely to be most affected by the early-spring snowmelt event because the epilimnion depth is at a minimum, which indicates minimum dilution. Under annual average loading conditions, no Sierran lake has been reported as acidic although 29% of the lakes have alkalinities less than 40 µeq/L indicating a sensitivity to acidification. In simulations of early-spring snowmelt events, using present-day acidic loading conditions, it was estimated 79% ± 9% of the lakes would experience shortterm lake alkalinity depressions to levels less than 40 µeq/L. The results provided by the model simulations are valuable in establishing upper and lower limits on the extent of possible episodic acidification to lake-resources-at-risk. The most critical parameters controlling the magnitude of lake alkalinity depressions during snowmelt episodic events are a) the lake area to watershed area ratio — a measure of input loading, and b) the epilimnion volume — a measure of dilution and mixing.