On Mid-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Groups and Flare Index

In this work we study the mid-term periodicities (MTPs), between 1 and 2 years, of the sunspot groups and the flare index (FI), by separating the data into hemispheres and spectral bands (SBs) according to the most significant periodicities presented by these phenomena. We found that the MTP of sunspot groups has a diminished power during the Modern Minimum and an increased power during the Modern Maximum, with the exception of cycle 20. For flares, the MTP has a diminished power during the low activity cycle 20, and an increased power during cycles 21 and 22. Therefore, for both sunspot groups and FI, cycle 20 shows a very diminished power followed by the active and higher-power cycles 21 and 22; cycle 23 shows a weaker power than cycles 21 and 22. It is uncertain whether MTP can be a precursor of a long-term minimum of solar activity or not, as has been previously suggested. Also, there is no one-to-one correlation between the cycle intensity and the importance of MTP. Concerning the quasi-biennial periodicities and the theory of two kinds of dynamos, we notice the tendency that higher-power cycles mean weaker coupling in the model. Concerning the hemispheric north-south asymmetry, for sunspot groups the southern hemisphere dominates in most of the SBs, while for FI the northern hemisphere dominates for all the SBs. Additionally, the time lag found between the two hemispheres indicates that the degrees of coupling in the photosphere for sunspot groups and in the corona for flares are between moderate and strong. Finally, the modulation shown by the MTP time series suggests that these periodicities are the product of chaotic quasi-periodic processes and not of stochastic processes.     

Location of Moderate-Sized Earthquakes Recorded by the NARS�CBaja Array in the Gulf of California Region Between 2002 and 2006

We relocated the hypocentral coordinates of small to moderate-sized earthquakes reported by the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) between April 2002 and August 2006 in the Gulf of California region and recorded by the broadband stations of the network of autonomously recording seismographs (NARS?CBaja array). The NARS?CBaja array consists of 19 stations installed in the Baja California peninsula, Sonora and Sinaloa, Mexico. The events reported by the preliminary determinations of epicenters (PDE) catalog within the period of interest have moment magnitudes (M _w) ranging between 1.1 and 6.7. We estimated the hypocentral location of these events using P and S wave arrivals recorded by the regional broadband stations of the NARS?CBaja and the RESBAN (Red Sismológica de Banda Ancha) arrays and using a standard location procedure with the HYPOCENTER code (Lienert and Havskov in Seism Res Lett 66:26?C36, 1995) as a preliminary step. To refine the location of the initial hypocenters, we used the shrinking box source-specific station term method of Lin and Shearer (J Geophys Res 110, B04304, 2005). We found that most of the seismicity is distributed in the NW?CSE direction along the axis of the Gulf of California, following a linear trend that, from north to south, steps southward near the main basins (Wagner, Delfin, Guaymas, Carmen, Farallon, Pescadero and Alarcon) and spreading centers. We compared the epicentral locations reported in the PDE with the locations obtained using regional arrival times, and we found that earthquakes with magnitudes in the range 3.2?C5.0?mb differ on the average by as much as 43?km. For the M _w magnitude range between 5 and 6.7 the discrepancy is less, differing on the average by about 25?km. We found that the relocated epicenters correlate well with the main bathymetric features of the Gulf.     

Seismic Subduction of the Nazca Ridge as Shown by the 1996–97 Peru Earthquakes

—By rupturing more than half of the shallow subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge, the great November 12, 1996 Peruvian earthquake contradicts the hypothesis that oceanic ridges subduct aseismically. The mainshock’s rupture has a length of about 200 km and has an average slip of about 1.4 m. Its moment is 1.5 × 10²⁸ dyne-cm and the corresponding M _w is 8.0. The mainshock registered three major episodes of moment release as shown by a finite fault inversion of teleseismically recorded broadband body waves. About 55% of the mainshock’s total moment release occurred south of the Nazca Ridge, and the remaining moment release occurred at the southern half of the subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge. The rupture south of the Nazca Ridge was elongated parallel to the ridge axis and extended from a shallow depth to about 65 km depth. Because the axis of the Nazca Ridge is at a high angle to the plate convergence direction, the subducting Nazca Ridge has a large southwards component of motion, 5 cm/yr parallel to the coast. The 900–1200 m relief of the southwards sweeping Nazca Ridge is interpreted to act as a "rigid indenter," causing the greatest coupling south of the ridge’s leading edge and leading to the large observed slip. The mainshock and aftershock hypocenters were relocated using a new procedure that simultaneously inverts local and teleseismic data. Most aftershocks were within the outline of the Nazca Ridge. A three-month delayed aftershock cluster occurred at the northern part of the subducting Nazca Ridge. Aftershocks were notably lacking at the zone of greatest moment release, to the south of the Nazca Ridge. However, a lone foreshock at the southern end of this zone, some 140 km downstrike of the mainshock’s epicenter, implies that conditions existed for rupture into that zone. The 1996 earthquake ruptured much of the inferred source zone of the M _w 7.9–8.2 earthquake of 1942, although the latter was a slightly larger earthquake. The rupture zone of the 1996 earthquake is immediately north of the seismic gap left by the great earthquakes (M _w ～8.8–9.1) of 1868 and 1877. The M _w 8.0 Antofagasta earthquake of 1995 occurred at the southern end of this great seismic gap. The M _w 8.2 deep-focus Bolivian earthquake of 1994 occurred directly downdip of the 1868 portion of that gap. The recent occurrence of three significant earthquakes on the periphery of the great seismic gap of the 1868 and 1877 events, among other factors, may signal an increased seismic potential for that zone.     

Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Mercury speciation and mobilization in contaminated soils of the Valle del Azogue Hg mine (SE,Spain)

Hg mobilization from contaminated soils and mine wastes was the source of environmental contamination in the Valle del Azogue mining area. We researched solid-phase speciation and aqueous mobility of Hg through Scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and electron probe microanalysis analysis, solid-phase-Hg-thermo-desorption (SPTD) and laboratory column experiments. We found that in contaminated soils and mine wastes, the predominant Hg species was cinnabar (HgS), mainly formed from the weathering of Hg-rich pyrite, and metallic Hg (0) in the matrix, whereas in calcines and tailings the dominant species was metallic Hg (0). The mobilization of Hg in the aqueous phase seems to have originated from the dissolution of elemental Hg (0) present in soils and wastes, reaching concentrations of up to 67 μg l⁻¹, and showing a higher long-term environmental potential risk, in addition to atmospheric emissions.     

Functioning of intertidal flats inferred from temporal and spatial dynamics of O<Subscript>2</Subscript>, H<Subscript>2</Subscript>S and pH in their surface sediment

In this article, we describe the dynamics of pH, O₂ and H₂S in the top 5–10 cm of an intertidal flat consisting of permeable sand. These dynamics were measured at the low water line and higher up the flat and during several seasons. Together with pore water nutrient data, the dynamics confirm that two types of transport act as driving forces for the cycling of elements (Billerbeck et al. 2006b): Fast surface dynamics of pore water chemistry occur only during inundation. Thus, they must be driven by hydraulics (tidal and wave action) and are highly dependent on weather conditions. This was demonstrated clearly by quick variation in oxygen penetration depth: Seeps are active at low tide only, indicating that the pore water flow in them is driven by a pressure head developing at low tide. The seeps are fed by slow transport of pore water over long distances in the deeper sediment. In the seeps, high concentrations of degradation products such as nutrients and sulphide were found, showing them to be the outlets of deep-seated degradation processes. The degradation products appear toxic for bioturbating/bioirrigating organisms, as a consequence of which, these were absent in the wider seep areas. These two mechanisms driving advection determine oxygen dynamics in these flats, whereas bioirrigation plays a minor role. The deep circulation causes a characteristic distribution of strongly reduced pore water near the low water line and rather more oxidised sediments in the centre of the flats. The two combined transport phenomena determine the fluxes of solutes and gases from the sediment to the surface water and in this way create specific niches for various types of microorganisms.     

Seismic response of an urban bridge-support system in soft clay

The numerical simulation of an instrumented urban bridge support and its foundation system was conducted. The bridge works as a deck in a surface subway station and was built 12 yr ago in the so-called Lake Zone in Mexico City, where very soft clays, exhibiting low shear strength and high compressibility prevail. Since the beginning of its construction, pile loads, soil–raft contact pressures and the overall response of the foundation system have been monitored. Within this period, several earthquakes have occurred. Thus, an extensive database of accelerations, pore pressures and load histories have been recorded. In particular, this paper focuses on the bridge response observed during two moderated intensity events, the 2004, 6.3 M_w, Guerrero Coast and the 1999, 7.0 M_w, Tehuacan earthquakes. Finite element models were developed to reproduce the measured responses and to assess the soil–foundation-support performance for long-term conditions, including the effects of potential changes in the dynamic soil properties due to regional subsidence. The computed dynamic responses obtained with the simulation for the free field and structure compares fairly well with the recordings.     

Land-Parcel Land-Use History as a Key to Site Selection for Documenting Soil Contamination Risk： a Case Study from Australian Suburbia

In that orcharding in early-to-mid twentieth century southeastern Australia involved use of certain heavy metal and As compounds in regular pest-control spray procedures, some interest attaches to the possibility that these landparcels are underlain by soils with above-background Cu, Pb and As levels. Interpreta- tion of Land-cover changes allowed land parcels previously occupied by orchards to be identified in the 1950s through time-series air-photos. A comparison of soil analysis results referring to soil samples from control sites, and from land parcels formerly occupied by orchardists, shows that contamination （above-background） levels of cations in the pesticides can be found in the top 6 cm of former orchard soils. It is clear that digital spatial data handling and culturally-informed air photo interpretation has a place in soil contamination studies, land-use planning （with particular reference to re-development） and in administration of public health.