Modeling endogenous learning and imperfect competition effects in climate change economics

In this two-part paper we evaluate the effect of “endogenizing” technological learning and strategic behavior of agents in economic models used to assess climate change policies. In the first part we show the potential impact of R&D policies or demonstration and deployment (D&D) programs in the context of stringent stabilization scenarios. In the second part we show how game-theoretic methods can be implemented in climate change economic models to take into account three types of strategic interactions: (i) the market power of the countries benefiting from very low abatement costs on international markets for CO₂ emissions, (ii) the strategic behavior of governments in the domestic allocation of CO₂ emissions quotas, and (iii) the non-cooperative behavior of countries and regions in the burden sharing of CO₂ concentration stabilization. The two topics of endogenous learning and game-theoretic approach to economic modeling are two manifestations of the need to take into account the strategic behavior of agents in the evaluation of climate change policies. In the first case an R&D policy or a demonstration and deployment (D&D) program are put in place in order to attain a cost reduction through the learning effect; in the second case the agents (countries) reply optimally to the actions decided by the other agents by exploiting their strategic advantages. Simulations based on integrated assessment models illustrate the approaches. These studies have been conducted under the Swiss NCCR-Climate program.     

Developments in oxidation of the (Mg,Fe)SiO3 pyroxene series and use of thermogravimetry as a quantitative analytical method

Interest in the pyroxenes has increased since the realization that their alteration products could carry a stable remnant magnetization which is possibly related to the earth's magnetic field and would therefore be of great geophysical importance.In the present work, the oxidation of artificial samples of the (Mg,Fe)SiO₃ pyroxene series was studied thermogravimetrically at the constant oxygen pressure of air and temperatures up to 1350°C. The resulting alteration products were determined after complete oxidation by a specific technique which is here reported as a new quantitative analytical method. This method could be applied to many other silicate groups, provided that iron is the only transitional element. Using natural samples, the accurate measure of the ratio $\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{3+}}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}$ provides a basis for a possible quantitative magnetic analytical method and for a geothermometer. Factors affecting the results, i.e., (a) the volatiles and (b) the contamination of transitional elements other than iron, were recognized but could be eliminated by using specific techniques.A large region of metastable solid solution of hematite (Fe₂O₃) in the spinel phase was found. The resulting oxides, after complete oxidation and precipitation of the Fe₂O₃ phase from the metastable spinel phase, were studied by thermogravimetric analysis and X-ray diffraction.     

Effect of marine litter on the benthic megafauna of coastal soft bottoms: a manipulative field experiment

The effect of litter on the abundance and community structure of soft-bottom epibenthic megafauna was investigated in three coves of the Saronikos Gulf (Aegean Sea). At each site, two surfaces were defined on the sea-bottom. One of the surfaces was uniformly littered with debris (16 items per 100 m(2)), while the other remained 'clean' and acted as control. Benthic megafauna was censused with SCUBA diving, once before the littering episode and then monthly for one year. Both total abundance and the number of species showed an increasing trend in the impacted surfaces, either because the litter provided refuge or reproduction sites for mobile species or because hard-substratum sessile species had the opportunity to settle on provided surfaces. A marked gradual deviation in the community structure of the impacted surface from the control and a clear successional pattern of change in the community composition of the impacted surfaces were demonstrated.     

Feeding ecology of the deep-water blue–red shrimp Aristeus antennatus (Decapoda: Aristeidae) in the Greek Ionian Sea (E. Mediterranean)

The feeding habits of the deep-sea blue–red shrimp Aristeus antennatus were determined based on the analysis of 1047 stomach contents, sampled in the Greek Ionian Sea (E. Mediterranean). The diet of this economically and biologically important decapod was studied in relation to the season, size class and sex. The diet of A. antennatus consisted of 54 different prey categories, and belonged mainly to smaller crustaceans (e.g. natantian decapods, euphausiids, tanaidaceans), molluscs, polychaetes, chaetognaths and, to a lesser extent, fishes. The above prey categories consisted of 71–82% of the relative abundance and total occurrence for males and 61–81% for females. Females seemed to be better fed than males (stomach fullness, food quality). A. antennatus displayed a highly diversified diet and the different feeding patterns were discussed. Diet composition showed slight seasonal fluctuations. The observed slight differences on A. antennatus diet among the western, central and eastern Mediterranean could be attributed to the more oligotrophic character of the eastern part of the basin. The principal factors driving the changes in the feeding strategy of this decapod among the seasons are the increased energy demands related to sexual requirements and the food availability in the marine environment. The ontogenetic changes in the shrimp's diet were relatively clear. Larger individuals exhibited selecting prey with a good swimming capacity (e.g. fishes), while the smaller individuals consumed prey with low mobility (e.g. copepods, ostracods).     

A Baseline Study on Benthic Species Distribution in Two Neighbouring Gulfs, With and Without Access to Bottom Trawling

Abstract. An extensive survey of the benthic fauna was carried out at two neighbouring regions of the Aegean Sea, one normally trawled and the other closed to trawlers. Benthic samples were collected from seven areas located away from land-based sources. The faunistic analysis showed that species diversity and abundance was higher in the trawled area compared with the untrawled area, a fact which was attributed to the difference in sediment characteristics between the two areas. A degree of disturbance detected in the trawled area was evidenced by an increase in the number of polychaetes at the expense of other benthic groups and an abundance of some opportunistic species. This could possibly be related to trawling activities. as no other causes of disturbance were found in either area.     

Benthic Communities of the lnfralittoral in the N. Sporades (Aegean Sea): a Variety of Biotopes Encountered and Analysed

Abstract. The infralittoral benthos was studied on three islands of the Northern Sporades in the Aegean Sea. Thirteen stations were sampled on both hard and soft substrata and 408 taxa were identified, some of zoogeographical interest. Multivariate statistical methods such as classification, ordination and Similarilies Terms Analysis were combined with existing ecological information to delineate the various communities present and to point to the indicator species characterising them. The communities were then defined using the indicator species and their affinities to typical biocoenoses. The main factor responsible for the observed distribution proved to be the type of substratum (algal cover or sediment type), which reflects the light and hydrodynamic conditions. The observed bathynietric zonation was similar lo that of the Balearic Islands in the western Mediterranean.     

The coupling of optimal economic growth and climate dynamics

In this paper, we study optimal economic growth programs coupled with climate change dynamics. The study is based on models derived from MERGE, a well established integrated assessment model (IAM). We discuss first the introduction in MERGE of a set of “tolerable window” constraints which limit both the temperature change and the rate of temperature change. These constraints, obtained from ensemble simulations performed with the Bern 2.5-D climate model, allow us to identity a domain intended to preserve the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Next, we report on experiments where a two-way coupling is realized between the economic module of MERGE and an intermediate complexity “3-D-” climate model (C-GOLDSTEIN) which computes the changes in climate and mean temperature. The coupling is achieved through the implementation of an advanced “oracle based optimization technique” which permits the integration of information coming from the climate model during the search for the optimal economic growth path. Both cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis modes are explored with this combined “meta-model” which we refer to as GOLDMERGE. Some perspectives on future implementations of these approaches in the context of “collaborative” or “community” integrated assessment modules are derived from the comparison of the different approaches.