Adaptive balance of global development processes

We study the processes of global self-regulation of Earth’s biota (GAIA-theory) by applying the method of adaptive balance of causes proposed by the authors. By using, as an example, the Daisy World model constructed by this method, we reveal the phenomenon of preservation of the mean temperature of Earth’s surface due to the presence of the vegetation cover. We develop an integral model of global natural, social, and economic processes in which the World Ocean is one of the factors regulating the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The decrease in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by the GAIA-effects increases the number of hurricanes and floods on the Earth. As a result, the levels of ecological and social hazards for the mankind become much higher. To eliminate these threats, it is necessary to intensify the processes of self-organization of the society realized via the improvement of education, development of science, and global regulation of the competition for natural resources. We present the results of numerical experiments performed by using the model demonstrating possible scenarios of global development with regard for the processes of self-organization of the society. __________ Translated From Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, Pp. 62–80, May–June, 2007.     

Management of the coastal-sea-zone-ecosystem model

We present a model of the processes of development in the ecosystem of the coastal zone of the sea constructed by the method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method). The model contains nine variables (phyto- and zooplankton, fish larvae, fishes, oxygen, carbon dioxide, salinity, biogenic elements, and detritus) affected by the solar radiation, surface wind, sea temperature, and river discharge. The equations of the model contain control agents governing the dependences of the elements of the food chain on the vitally important resources and environmental conditions. The scenarios of the processes of development are constructed for the simulated annual courses of external actions. The possibility of management of fish resources by regulating the flows of biogenic elements and detritus with river discharge is discussed. A mechanism of management based on the monitoring of the concentration of dissolved oxygen in seawater is proposed. The numerical experiments show that the ABC-model of the processes of development in the ecosystem of the coastal zone of the sea makes it possible to simulate the scenarios of regulation of the flows of biogenic elements and detritus into the sea with an aim of preservation of of fish resources. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 36–49, January–February, 2009.     

Agent-Based Marine-Ecosystems Modeling

We propose a new information technology aimed at modeling of biochemical processes in marine ecosystems and based on the use of logical operators of control (intelligent agents) in the dynamic equations of the models. We develop a conceptual model of an ecosystem reflecting the interaction of 17 biochemical processes and 5 external factors. The equations of the model are obtained by the method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC method), which enables one to simulate complex scenarios of the processes running in the investigated systems and guarantees the possibility of robust calculations. Some examples of the behavior of ecosystems under the conditions of deficiency of oxygen caused by the action of natural and anthropogenic factors are presented. As a result, it is possible to make a conclusion that the combined application of the ABC-equations and intelligent agents of control in models of marine ecosystems is quite promising.     

Quantitative experimental determinations for monitoring hydrophysical parameters in the North Atlantic

The possibility of tracking the change in large-scale hydrophysical parameters in the North Atlantic on the basis of density distribution measurements obtained from two scientific research vessels has been investigated. The monitoring scheme uses a numerical dynamic-stochastic model with variable exchange coefficients. An accurate monitoring has been obtained and at the same time a process of reducing the ambiguity in describing the state of the ocean has been presented by models using the observed data.UDK 551.001.573 (261.5)