Statistical Modeling of Monthly Anomalies of Atmospheric Precipitations for the Region of the Ukraine and Black Sea

The data array accumulated for the period 1946–1995 is used to select the most significant predictor of monthly anomalies of precipitation in the region of the Ukraine and Black Sea, namely, a large-scale circulation in a sector covering the North Atlantic and Europe. Three large-scale predictors (geopotential at a level of 500GPa, sea-level pressure, and the difference between the geopotentials at levels of 500 and 1000GPa) give almost identical results: their correlation with anomalies of precipitation is equal to 0.7–0.8 in winter and 0.4–0.5 in summer. The predominant mechanism of the influence of circulation on precipitations at low frequencies is the response of the trajectories of European cyclones to changes in the upper-tropospheric jet currents in the Atlantic-European sector described as the superposition of the North-Atlantic oscillation and the Eurasian mode. The decomposition of the fields of precipitations and circulation in the eigenmodes of the canonical correlation analysis opens a possibility of direct computation of the monthly average fields of precipitations for the entire territory of the Ukraine and Black Sea region according to the large-scale geopotential fields.     

Numerical simulation of a quasi-tropical cyclone over the Black Sea

The paper describes results of numerical experiments on the simulation of a mesoscale quasi-tropical cyclone, a rare event for the Black Sea, with the MM5 regional atmospheric circulation model. General characteristics of the cyclone and its evolution and physical formation mechanisms are discussed. The balances of the momentum components have been estimated, and sensitivity experiments have been performed. It is shown that, according to its main physical properties and energy supply mechanisms, the cyclone can be related to quasi-tropical cyclones.     

A stochastic model of the atmospheric precipitation in the coastal zone of the Tropical Atlantic

A stochastic prognostic model of the atmospheric precipitation in the tropical area of the Atlantic Ocean is developed on the basis of a large data array. The data represent a series of monthly precipitation rates for 31 towns in the Republic of Guinea covering a period of 35–64 years as well as satellite data on the meridional displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone during 11 years. The model takes into account major regularities of the tropical precipitation: their impulsive periodic regime, trends, and the modulation of the stochastic component by the determined variability.Translated by Mikhai M. Trufanov.     

A quasitropical cyclone over the Black Sea: Observations and numerical simulation

A long-living mesoscale cyclone observed over the Black Sea in September 2005 was characterized by a high wind velocity (25 m/sec) and induced an abnormal lowering of the sea-surface temperature (by more than 10°C). We performed the numerical simulation of this cyclone by using the MM5 model and the data of global operative analysis. The evolution of the cyclone and its structure similar to the structure of a tropical cyclone are reproduced. The primary azimuthal and secondary radial circulations, the clear-sky eye with warm core at medium levels, and the eyewall with strong air updraft and intense convection and precipitation are well visible. The fluxes of sensible and latent heat on the sea surface played the key role in the initiation and development of this cyclone. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, pp. 41–55, May–June, 2008.     

Modes of linear stationary response of the atmospheric boundary layer to a cold surge in the Black Sea

To describe the phenomenon of cold surges in the Black Sea in winter, we study the problem of atmospheric response to a local heat source on the surface in two simple formulations. In the shallow-water model, the planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere is homogeneous with variable upper bound. In the second model, the boundary layer has a constant thickness and its stratification is homogeneous. In the one-dimensional problem, for a constant wind blowing perpendicularly to the sea coast, the atmospheric response is determined by a single dimensionless parameter called the Froude number. Depending on its value, there are two possible different modes of the response. The range Fr < 1 (subcritical mode) corresponds to gentle winds, strong stratifications, thick boundary layers, and high velocities of inertial gravitational waves. The range Fr > 1 (supercritical mode) corresponds to strong winds, weak stratifications, thin boundary layers, and low wave velocities. In the two-dimensional problem for a round sea, there are four qualitatively different types of response depending on the combination of two dimensionless parameters: the Froude number and the ratio of the radius of the sea to the radius of deformation. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 3–22, September–October, 2008.     

Modeling of the Specific Features of Climate in the Black-Sea Region

By the method of cluster analysis, we obtain a collection of meteorological fields for six typical synoptic situations in Eastern Europe for 1982–1996. We study the possibility of evaluation of the climatic characteristics of the field of precipitations for the Black-Sea region on the basis of a mesoscale atmospheric model with the use of certain statistically selected typical situations as input data.     

Statistics of mesoscale cyclonic Eddies over the Black Sea

On the basis of the results obtained by using the PRECIS regional climate model with high space resolution (25 km), we study the mesoscale specific features of the atmospheric circulation in the Black-Sea region for a period of 30 yr. To separate and trace the subsynoptic eddies, we use a method based on the Okubo–Weiss criterion. Several types of cyclonic eddies are selected and described: winter Caucasian coastal eddies, summer Caucasian separated eddies, cyclonic eddies of the open sea, and seldom quasitropical cyclones. For various types of eddies, we present the statistics of their lifetime and intensity and the histograms of diurnal and seasonal cycles.     

Observations of a quasi-tropical cyclone over the Black Sea

A rare atmospheric phenomenon in the Black Sea region is described: a mesoscale cyclone with all main properties of tropical cyclones. The cyclone developed in the southwestern part of the sea and existed for about five days. General characteristics of the cyclone are presented along with its effect on thermodynamic structure of the sea upper layer.     

Fractal and scaling characteristics of the equatorial atlantic currents

Observations made during 50 days at nine buoy moorings in the equatorial Atlantic have been used to determine the fractal and scaling characteristics of the Eulerian trajectories of currents. Within the temporal (1–10 days) and spatial range (10–100 km), the trajectories are shown to be isotropic and to have a scaling and fractal dimension that equals 1.2. The data are interpreted in the context of two-dimensional turbulence. The paper examines the multifractal structure of the density of kinetic energy dissipation, which is intermittent within the range from 4 to 100 km. The spectrum of singularities is determined using the method of Legendre transformation of generalized Renyi dimensions, and spectrum parameterization is accomplished using the universal family of Levy's random multifractal measures. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Mesoscale structure of the fields of vertical velocity and vorticity of winds over the Black Sea

On the basis of a simple stationary linear model and a contemporary nonlinear model, we study the mesoscale characteristics of the fields of vertical velocity and vorticity of winds over the Black Sea. It is shown that, in the idealized case (without taking into account the coastal features), the temperature contrast between the land and the sea in both models leads to the formation of circulation cells in the coastal zone. However, the mountainous features prove to be the main factor affecting the process of circulation for the actual synoptic situations. We present the map of monthly average vorticity of the surface winds constructed according to the nonlinear mesoscale model with a resolution of 30 km for January 1996–2001. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 52–61, January–February, 2005.