Changes to flow regime on the Niger River at Koulikoro under a changing climate

Abstract

A significant decrease in mean river flow as well as shifts in flood regimes have been reported at several locations along the River Niger. These changes are the combined effect of persistent droughts, damming and increased consumption of water. Moreover, it is believed that climate change will impact on the hydrological regime of the river in the next decades and exacerbate existing problems. While decision makers and stakeholders are aware of these issues, it is hard for them to figure out what actions should be taken without a quantitative estimate of future changes. In this paper, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Niger River watershed at Koulikoro was successfully calibrated, then forced with the climate time series of variable length generated by nine regional climate models (RCMs) from the AMMA-ENSEMBLES experiment. The RCMs were run under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. A combination of quantile-quantile transformation and nearest-neighbour search was used to correct biases in the distributions of RCM outputs. Streamflow time series were generated for the 2026–2050 period (all nine RCMs), and for the 2051–2075 and 2076–2100 periods (three out of nine RCMs) based on the availability of RCM simulations. It was found that the quantile-quantile transformation improved the simulation of both precipitation extremes and ratio of monthly dry days/wet days. All RCMs predicted an increase in temperature and solar radiation, and a decrease in average annual relative humidity in all three future periods relative to the 1981–1989 period, but there was no consensus among them about the direction of change of annual average wind speed, precipitation and streamflow. When all model projections were averaged, mean annual precipitation was projected to decrease, while the total precipitation in the flood season (August, September, October) increased, driving the mean annual flow up by 6.9% (2026–2050), 0.9% (2051–2075) and 5.6% (2076–2100). A t-test showed that changes in multi-model annual mean flow and annual maximum monthly flow between all four periods were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.     

Size-differential feeding in Pinna nobilis L. (Mollusca: Bivalvia): Exploitation of detritus,phytoplankton and zooplankton

The endangered fan shell Pinna nobilis is a large bivalve mollusc (<120 cm shell length) endemic to the Mediterranean that lives one-third buried in soft substrata, generally in shallow coastal waters. We hypothesised that P. nobilis of different sizes would ingest different food sources, because small fan shells will inhale material from closer to the substratum than do large fan shells. We studied stomach contents and faeces of 18 fan shells, 6 small (mean 23.0 cm length), 6 medium-sized (mean 41.5 cm length) and 6 large (mean 62.7 cm length) living in a small area of a low-energy coastal detritic bottom characterised by mud, sand and macroalgae at Mali Ston Bay, Croatia. We found that all P. nobilis ingested copious quantities of undetermined detritus (probably at least 95% of ingested material), phytoplankton, micro and mesozooplankton and pollen grains. Large P. nobilis stomach contents showed a preponderance of water column calanoid copepods, while small fan shells had higher numbers of bivalve larvae. All fan shells took in high numbers of harpacticoid copepods that are benthonic, feeding on microbial communities of detritus and benthic vegetation. There was also a significant selection of phytoplankton species, some apparently occurring between inhalation and ingestion. The stomach contents of small P. nobilis had a higher organic matter content than either medium-sized or large fan shells; this indicated that small fan shells ingested detritus of higher organic content than did larger P. nobilis. As the faeces of all P. nobilis had similar organic matter content, this also indicates higher assimilation efficiencies in small fan shells. The demonstration of differential dietary selectivity by different sized animals has implications for future trophic studies of this endangered species. This study also provides the first demonstration of predation on zooplankton by P. nobilis.     

Quantum fluctuations in radiation dominated anisotropic cosmology

Using the metric conformal transformation and simple path integral, Feynman propagator method, for computing its quantum fluctuations, we analyse the radiation dominated anisotropic Bianchi Type I cosmology. We proceed to show that the quantum conformal fluctuations diverge at the classical spacetime singularity, suggesting that a singularity free solution can exist in anisotropic cosmology in the quantum regime. Since the December 1998 issue of this journal was delayed, we were able to include this paper in this issue.     

Rock relationships in the Mogok metamorphic belt, Tatkon to Mandalay, central Myanmar

The Mogok metamorphic belt (MMB), over 1450 km long and up to 40 km wide, consists of regionally metamorphosed rocks including kyanite and sillimanite schists and granites lying along the Western margin of the Shan Plateau in central Myanmar and continuing northwards to the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. Exposures in quarries allow correlation of Palaeozoic meta-sedimentary, early Mesozoic meta-igneous and late Mesozoic intrusive rocks within a 230 km long northerly-trending segment of the MMB, from Tatkon to Kyanigan north of Mandalay, and with the Mogok gemstone district 100 km to the northeast. Relationships among the metamorphic and intrusive rocks, with sparse published radiometric age controls, indicate at least two metamorphic events, one before and one after the intrusion of Late Jurassic to early Cretaceous calc-alkaline rocks. These relationships can be explained by either of two possible tectonic histories. One, constrained by correlation of mid-Permian limestones across Myanmar, requires early Permian and early Jurassic regional metamorphic events, prior to an early Tertiary metamorphism, in the western part of but within a Shan-Thai – western Myanmar block. The second, not compatible with a single laterally continuous Permian limestone, requires pre-Upper Jurassic regional metamorphism and orogenic gold mineralization in the Mergui Group and western Myanmar, early Cretaceous collision of an east-facing Mergui-western Myanmar island arc with the Shan Plateau, and early Tertiary metamorphism in the MMB related to reversal in tectonic polarity following the arc-Plateau collision.     

Single-crystal EPR study of three radiation-induced defects (Al–O2 3?, Ti3+ and W5+) in stishovite

Single-crystal electron paramagnetic resonance spectra of electron-irradiated stishovite, measured at temperatures from 3.5 to 294?K, reveal three S?=?1/2 radiation-induced defects: an aluminum-associated oxygen hole center and two nd ¹ centers (Ti³⁺ and W⁵⁺). The aluminum-associated oxygen hole center, characterized by an orthorhombic site symmetry, coaxial matrices of the electronic Zeeman g, nuclear hyperfine A(²⁷Al) and nuclear quadrupole P(²⁷Al), and the orientation of the g-minimum axis along an O–O direction and those of the unique A(²⁷Al) and P(²⁷Al) axes perpendicular to the O–O direction, is an Al–O₂ ^3? center, with the unpaired electron equally distributed on two equatorial oxygen atoms of a substitutional Al³⁺ ion at the octahedral Si site. Fully optimized Al-doped structure, theoretical ²⁷Al nuclear hyperfine and quadrupole coupling constants and directions, and 3D spin densities from periodic hybrid density functional theory calculations provide further support for this structural model. Spin Hamiltonian parameters of the Ti³⁺ and W⁵⁺ centers, which are confirmed by their diagnostic ⁴⁷Ti, ⁴⁹Ti and ¹⁸³W hyperfine structures, arise from electron trapping on substitutional Ti⁴⁺ and W⁶⁺ ions at the octahedral Si site.     

Nonconformal fluctuations in radiation dominated anisotropic cosmology

Using simple path integral, Feynman propagator method and the relation between conformal timeη and scale factor Τ, we investigate the non-conformal quantum fluctuations (of expansion and shear) and axisymmetric singularity case in radiation dominated anisotropic cosmology. We show that near the classical singularity the quantum fluctuations tend to diverge. Since the December 1998 issue of this journal was delayed, we were able to include this paper in this issue.     

Role of permeability barriers in alluvial hydromorphic palaeosols: The Eocene Pondaung Formation,Myanmar

This study examines the lateral distribution of hydromorphy in the fine‐grained alluvial deposits of the Eocene Pondaung Formation, central Myanmar. Through detailed outcrop analysis and using a combined sedimentological and pedological approach, this study proposes a reconstruction of Pondaung overbank floodplain palaeoenvironments. The variations of hydromorphic features in the different overbank sub‐environments are then discussed and used to build a model of hydromorphic variability in alluvial deposits. Two main architectural associations with distinctive lithofacies and pedogenic features were identified, corresponding to different sub‐environments: heterolithic deposits and extensive mudstone successions. The heterolithic deposits display variegated fine‐grained lithofacies and contain poorly developed palaeosols with gley and vertic features, which are interpreted to reflect a seasonal wetlands landscape, developed in actively aggrading avulsion belts. Extensive mudstone successions with Vertisols that locally exhibit mukkara‐style pseudogley features are interpreted to represent a distal open‐forested environment. The palaeosols of both sub‐environments display dense local hydromorphic variations they are also characterized by a gradual shift from gley‐dominated to pseudogley‐dominated features with increasing distance from the avulsion belt. The clay‐dominated lithology of the floodplain parent material, which forms numerous subsurface permeability barriers, is shown to have acted as a fundamental control in limiting water‐table dynamics in coarse‐grained parts of the succession, thereby favouring hydromorphic variability. Palaeosol sequences of the Pondaung Formation contrast with the soil‐landscape associations described in other studies and provide an alternative model with which to account for the hydromorphic variability in poorly drained, alluvial soils. The model proposed as an outcome of this study demonstrates that hydromorphic variations can be dramatic in floodplains where permeability barriers are numerous. Further, the model stresses the importance of undertaking detailed lateral palaeosol analyses prior to making interpretations regarding hydromorphic variability.     

Theoretical modeling of the Al paramagnetic center and its precursors in stishovite

Previous electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopic study of gamma-ray-irradiated stishovite at 77 K detected an Al hole center, which was proposed to be an [O₂ ³⁻–Al³⁺] defect. First-principles quantum-mechanical calculations show that the unpaired spin is 85% localized on one of the six oxygen atoms at an AlO₆ octahedron, while the calculated ²⁷Al hyperfine constants are similar to those determined by EPR experiments. Theoretical results allow us to propose the Al center to represent an [AlO₆]⁰ defect, and hole hoping among equivalent oxygen atoms is responsible for its detection only at cryogenic temperatures. Theoretical calculations also show that the diamagnetic precursors [AlO₆/H⁺]⁰, [AlO₆/Li⁺]⁰, and [AlO₆/Na⁺]⁰ are stable in stishovite. The calculated OH bond distance and orientation are in excellent agreement with those inferred from FTIR spectra and previous theoretical calculations. The calculated [AlO₆/Li⁺]⁰ and [AlO₆/Na⁺]⁰ defects suggest that the monovalent cations such as Li⁺ and Na⁺ are potentially important in accommodating Al in stishovite in the lower mantle.