Projected future changes in the contribution of Indo-Pacific sea surface height variability to the Indonesian throughflow

The Indonesian throughflow (ITF) transports a significant amount of warm freshwater from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, making it critical to the global climate system. This study examines decadal ITF variations using ocean reanalysis data as well as climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). While the observed annual cycle of ITF transport is known to be correlated with the annual cycle of sea surface height (SSH) difference between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, ocean reanalysis data (1959–2015) show that the Pacific Ocean SSH variability controls more than 85% of ITF variation on decadal timescales. In contrast, the Indian Ocean SSH variability contributes less than 15%. While those observed contributions are mostly reproduced in the CMIP5 historical simulations, an analysis of future climate projections shows a 25–30% increase in the Indian Ocean SSH variability to decadal ITF variations and a corresponding decrease in the Pacific contribution. These projected changes in the Indian Ocean SSH variability are associated with a 23% increase in the amplitudes of negative zonal wind stress anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean, along with a 12º eastward shift in the center of action in these anomalies. This combined effect of the increased amplitude and eastward shift in the zonal wind stress increases the SSHA variance over the Indian Ocean, increasing its contribution to the ITF variation. The decadal ITF changes discussed in this study will be crucial in understanding the future global climate variability, strongly coupled to Indo-Pacific interactions.

     

Sensitivity of precipitation to sea surface temperature over the tropical summer monsoon region—and its quantification

Over the tropical oceans, higher sea surface temperatures (SST, above 26 °C) in summer are generally accompanied by increased precipitation. However, it has been argued for the last three decades that, any monotonic increase in precipitation with respect to SST is limited to an upper threshold of 28–29.5 °C, and beyond this, the relationship fails. Based on this assessment it has often been presumed that, since the mean SSTs over the Asian monsoon basins (Indian Ocean and north-west Pacific) are mostly above the threshold, SST does not play an active role on the summer monsoon variability. It also implies that increasing SSTs due to a changing climate need not result in increasing monsoon precipitation. The current study shows that the response of precipitation to SST has a time lag, that too with a spatial variability over the monsoon basins. Taking this lag into account, the results here show that enhanced convection occurs even up to the SST maxima of 31 °C averaged over these basins, challenging any claim of an upper threshold for the SST-convection variability. The study provides us with a novel method to quantify the SST-precipitation relationship. The rate of increase is similar across the basins, with precipitation increasing at ~2 mm day^?1 for an increase of 1 °C in SST. This means that even the high SSTs over the monsoon basins do play an active role on the monsoon variability, challenging previous assumptions. Since the response of precipitation to SST variability is visible in a few days, it would also imply that including realistic ocean–atmosphere coupling is crucial even for short term monsoon weather forecasts. Though recent studies suggest a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the last few decades, results here suggest an increased precipitation over the tropical monsoon regions, in a global warming environment with increased SSTs. Thus the signature of SST is found to be significant for the Asian summer monsoon, in a quantifiable manner, seamlessly through all the timescales—from short-term intraseasonal to long-term climate scales.     

Intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region

The SST-precipitation relationship in the intraseasonal variability (ISV) over the Asian monsoon region is examined using recent high quality satellite data and simulations from a state of the art coupled model, the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 demonstrates high skill in reproducing the spatial distribution of the observed climatological mean summer monsoon precipitation along with its interannual variability, a task which has been a conundrum for many recent climate coupled models. The model also exhibits reasonable skill in simulating coherent northward propagating monsoon intraseasonal anomalies including SST and precipitation, which are generally consistent with observed ISV characteristics. Results from the observations and the model establish the existence of spatial variability in the atmospheric convective response to SST anomalies, over the Asian monsoon domain on intraseasonal timescales. The response is fast over the Arabian Sea, where precipitation lags SST by ~5 days; whereas it is slow over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, with a lag of ~12 days. The intraseasonal SST anomalies result in a similar atmospheric response across the basins, which consists of a destabilization of the bottom of the atmospheric column, as observed from the equivalent potential temperature anomalies near the surface. However, the presence of a relatively strong surface convergence over the Arabian Sea, due to the presence of a strong zonal gradient in SST, which accelerates the upward motion of the moist air, results in a relatively faster response in terms of the local precipitation anomalies over the Arabian Sea than over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. With respect to the observations, the ocean–atmosphere coupling is well simulated in the model, though with an overestimation of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, leading to an exaggerated SST-precipitation relationship. A detailed examination points to a systematic bias in the thickness of the mixed layer of the ocean model, which needs to be rectified. A too shallow (deep) mixed layer enhances (suppress) the amplitude of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, thereby amplifying (lessening) the ISV and the active-break phases of the monsoon in the model.     

Seasonality in the relationship between El Nino and Indian Ocean dipole

The seasonal change in the relationship between El Nino and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is examined using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and the twentieth century simulations (20c3m) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model, version 2.1. It is found that, both in ERA-40 and the model simulations, the correlation between El Nino (Nino3 index) and the eastern part of the IOD (90?C110°E; 10°S-equator) is predominantly positive from January to June, and then changes to negative from July to December. Correlation maps of atmospheric and oceanic variables with respect to the Nino3 index are constructed for each season in order to examine the spatial structure of their seasonal response to El Nino. The occurrence of El Nino conditions during January to March induces low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean, which counteracts the climatological cyclonic circulation in that region. As a result, evaporation decreases and the southeastern Indian Ocean warms up as the El Nino proceeds, and weaken the development of a positive phase of an IOD. This warming of the southeastern Indian Ocean associated with the El Nino does not exist past June because the climatological winds there develop into the monsoon-type flow, enhancing the anomalous circulation over the region. Furthermore, the development of El Nino from July to September induces upwelling in the southeastern Indian Ocean, thereby contributing to further cooling of the region during the summer season. This results in the enhancement of a positive phase of an IOD. Once the climatological circulation shifts from the boreal summer to winter mode, the negative correlation between El Nino and SST of the southeastern Indian Ocean changes back to a positive one.     

Role of ocean–atmosphere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO)

Atmospheric dynamical mechanisms have been prevalently used to explain the characteristics of the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO), which dictates the wet and dry spells of the monsoon rainfall. Recent studies show that ocean–atmosphere coupling has a vital role in simulating the observed amplitude and relationship between precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) at the intraseasonal scale. However it is not clear whether this role is simply ‘passive’ response to the atmospheric forcing alone, or ‘active’ in modulating the northward propagation of MISO, and also whether the extent to which it modulates is considerably noteworthy. Using coupled NCEP–Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) model and its atmospheric component the Global Forecast System (GFS), we investigate the relative role of the atmospheric dynamics and the ocean–atmosphere coupling in the initiation, maintenance, and northward propagation of MISO. Three numerical simulations are performed including (1) CFSv2 coupled with high frequency interactive SST, the GFS forced with both (2) observed monthly SST (interpolated to daily) and (3) daily SST obtained from the CFSv2 simulations. Both CFSv2 and GFS simulate MISO of slightly higher period (~60 days) than observations (~45 days) and have reasonable seasonal rainfall over India. While MISO simulated by CFSv2 has realistic northward propagation, both the GFS model experiments show standing mode of MISO over India with no northward propagation of convection from the equator. The improvement in northward propagation in CFSv2, therefore, may not be due to improvement of the model physics in the atmospheric component alone. Our analysis indicates that even with the presence of conducive vertical wind shear, the absence of meridional humidity gradient and moistening of the atmosphere column north of convection hinders the northward movement of convection in GFS. This moistening mechanism works only in the presence of an ‘active’ ocean. In CFSv2, the lead-lag relationship between the atmospheric fluxes, SST and convection are maintained, while such lead-lag is unrealistic in the uncoupled simulations. This leads to the conclusion that high frequent and interactive ocean–atmosphere coupling is a necessary and crucial condition for reproducing the realistic northward propagation of MISO in this particular model.     

Soil heat flux and day time surface energy balance closure at astronomical observatory,Thiruvananthapuram, south Kerala

Soil heat flux is an important input component of surface energy balance. Estimates of soil heat flux were made in the year 2008 using soil temperature data at Astronomical Observatory, Thiruvananthapuram, south Kerala. Hourly values of soil heat flux from 00 to 24 LST are presented for selected days typical of the winter, pre-monsoon, SW monsoon and NE monsoon seasons. The diurnal variation is characterized by a cross-over from negative to positive values at 0700 h, occurrence of maximum around noon and return to negative values in the late evening. The energy storage term for the soil layer 0–0.05 m is calculated and the ground heat flux G ^? is estimated in all seasons. Daytime surface energy balance at the surface on wet and dry seasons is investigated. The average Bowen’s ratio during the wet and dry seasons were 0.541 and 0.515, respectively indicating that considerable evaporation takes place at the surface. The separate energy balance components were examined and the mean surface energy balance closure was found to be 0.742 and 0.795 for wet and dry seasons, respectively. When a new method that accounts for both soil thermal conduction and soil thermal convection was adopted to calculate the surface heat flux, the energy balance closure was found to be improved. Thus on the land surface under study, the soil vertical water movement is significant.     

Influence of sea surface temperature on the intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon

The objective of this study is to examine, based on recently available high resolution satellite and observational data, the evolution and role of sea surface temperature (SST) in influencing the intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SM). The study focuses on the 30–60?day timescale when the northward propagating anomalies are dominant over the SCS. Composite analysis of the SST maximum events during SCS SM shows that increased SST anomalies over the SCS are significantly influenced by the downward shortwave radiation flux anomalies, with the suppressed surface latent heat flux anomalies supplementing to it. A thermal damping of the positive SST anomalies induces positive upward heat fluxes, which then destabilize the lower atmosphere between 1,000 and 700?hPa. The positive SST anomalies lead the positive precipitation anomalies over the SCS by 10?days, with a significant correlation (r?=?0.44) between the SST-precipitation anomalies. The new findings here indicate an ocean-to-atmosphere effect over the SCS, where underlying SST anomalies tend to form a favorable condition for convective activity and sustain enhanced precipitation during the SCS SM. It is also argued, based on our observations, that the negative sea level pressure anomalies induced by the positive SST anomalies play a role in enhancing the northward propagation of the intraseasonal anomalies over the SCS.     

Variability of soil moisture and its relationship with surface albedo and soil thermal diffusivity at Astronomical Observatory,Thiruvananthapuram, south Kerala

Continuous observation data collected over the year 2008 at Astronomical Observatory, Thiruvananthapuram in south Kerala (76°59′E longitude and 8°30′N latitude) are used to study the diurnal, monthly and seasonal soil moisture variations. The effect of rainfall on diurnal and seasonal soil moisture is discussed. We have investigated relationships of soil moisture with surface albedo and soil thermal diffusivity. The diurnal variation of surface albedo appears as a U-shaped curve on sunny days. Surface albedo decreases with the increase of solar elevation angle, and it tends to be a constant when solar elevation angle is greater than 40°. So the daily average surface albedo was calculated using the data when solar elevation angle is greater than 40°. The results indicate that the mean daily surface albedo decreases with increases in soil moisture content, showing a typical exponential relation between the surface albedo and the soil moisture. Soil thermal diffusivity increases firstly and then decreases with the increase of soil moisture.