Modeling study of growth and potential geohazard for LUSI mud volcano: East Java,Indonesia

The mud volcano known as LUSI first erupted in May 2006 in East Java, Indonesia. The eruption has continued for over two years, and potentially will continue for many years to come, impacting an ever larger area. An obvious and significant question is how extensive the impacted area will become in the coming years. The answer is important for planning scenarios for the relocation of people and infrastructure and for managing the environment and economy. To make such a prediction, an understanding of the geological processes controlling the mud volcanic evolution is needed.