Sea-level rise research and dialogue in North Carolina: Creating windows for policy change

Coastal areas are among the world's most vulnerable landscapes to impacts related to climate change, including inundation from sea-level rise (SLR), increased exposure to shoreline erosion, and greater frequency and intensity of storms. The status of research on the physical, ecological, and socio-economic effects of vulnerability to SLR and progress toward planning for its consequences varies from region to region worldwide. Here, we synthesize the results of three decades of SLR research and the development of coastal management policies in North Carolina, USA. We identify the major factors responsible for opening new policy ‘windows’ that address SLR, including how stakeholders have developed an increased understanding of the risks, the extent of public dialogue about potential response strategies, and advances in political receptivity to policy change. Research and policy progress in North Carolina continue to provide a model for other regions to help guide and evaluate the development of coastal policies.     

Hiatus of wetland methane emissions associated with recent La Niña episodes in the Asian monsoon region

The variability of methane emissions from wetlands in the tropics and northern temperate regions can explain more than 70% of the interannual variation in global wetland methane emissions, which are largely driven by climate variability. We use climate reanalysis, remote sensing wetland area dataset and simulations from 11 land models contributing to Global Methane Budget to investigate the interannual variation and anomalies of wetland methane emissions in the Asian Monsoon region. Methane emissions in this region steadily increased over 2000–2012. However, abnormally low methane emissions were found in equatorial fully humid (Af), warm temperate winter dry (Cw), and warm temperate fully humid (Cf) Asian Monsoon climate sub-regions in 2008, 2009 and 2011, respectively. These spatially-shifting low emissions occurred simultaneously with observed wetland area shrinkage due to abnormally low precipitation. Interannual variability of wetland methane emissions in Asian Monsoon region are primarily driven by South Asian Monsoon system. However, the abnormally low emissions are related to strong La Niña events, and its accompanying effect of weakened East Asian Monsoon system and eastward Western Pacific subtropical high, which drives the shifting pattern of rainfall, and thus the spatial pattern of methane emission anomalies.     

Electron content modelling: The significance of protonospheric contents

The principal advance of the ATS-6 satellite beacon experiment was the ability to deduce continuously the electron content along the entire slant path from ground-based measurements of the signal group delay. This feature has been exploited in conjunction with the more usual Faraday rotation technique to separate the total electron content into ionospheric and protonospheric components. The physical validity of the deduced quantities is investigated using a mathematical model of the plasmasphere in which integration of the time-dependent continuity and momentum equations for oxygen and hydrogen ions along selected L shells yields the ion concentrations and field-aligned fluxes. The ion concentrations are then integrated along the propagation path to various ground stations from ATS-6 to give computed values for comparison with observations. The mathematical model is used with different sets of atmospheric parameters to investigate the significance of ionospheric and protonospheric contents as derived from beacon data.The calculated electron concentrations are able to reproduce mid-latitude equinoctial electron content observations. The shape parameters τ and F can also be simulated by day, but night-time values do not match the observations well, a greater protonospheric content being required. The calculations show that the quantity N_p, which is readily derived from ATS-6 observations, may be interpreted as the slant H⁺ content above some fixed height in the case of some stations (but not others) if the plasmasphere is reasonably full. The total slant content of H⁺ is approx. twice the value of N_p, though it appears that for the Lancaster raypath a closer relationship exists between N_p and the H⁺ tube content at L = 1.8. In general,N_p is most closely related to the tube content for an L value slightly greater than the minimum L intersected along the raypath.     

A modelling study of satellite beacon measurements of protonospheric replenishment

Recent satellite beacon derived measurements of the recovery of protonospheric ionization following periods of increased geomagnetic activity show that the recovery takes longer than is indicated by whistler measurements. Realistic plasmasphere models have been used to determine whether satellite beacon measurements are reliable indicators of this recovery. It is found that the recovery time of the protonospheric content is similar to that of the minimum L-value flux tube intersected by the slant raypaths. Satellite beacon results are therefore useful indicators of protonospheric recovery after a storm provided any unrepresentative diurnal variations are eliminated.     

Satellite beacon measurements of protonospheric fluxes

The ionospheric and protonospheric regions of the plasmasphere, which are dominated by the O⁺ and H⁺ ionic species, respectively, interact by means of proton fluxes within tubes of magnetic force. The present study is concerned with the determination of these fluxes by the beacon satellite technique as used in the ATS-6 experiment in relation to three observing sites: Boulder, Colorado; Lancaster, U.K.; and Fairbanks, Alaska. From plasmasphere models based on solutions of the time dependent O⁺ and H⁺ momentum and continuity equations, it is shown that the time differential of the “residual content” as measured at Lancaster, provides a good estimate of the protonospheric flux at 4000km altitude in the L = 1.8 magnetic shell under quite geomagnetic conditions. The effect of the neutral thermospheric wind on the protonospheric flux is also investigated. Fluxes determined by the beacon technique for the period from September 1975 to July 1976 are shown, and these are compared with typical results derived from other techniques.     

Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications

Conservation managers and policy makers need tools to identify coastal habitats and human communities that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal impact models can help determine the vulnerability of areas and populations to changes in sea level. Model outputs may be used to guide decisions about the location and design of future protected areas and development, and to prioritize adaptation of existing protected area investments. This paper reviews state-of-the-art coastal impact models that determine sea-level rise vulnerability and provides guidance to help managers and policy makers determine the appropriateness of various models at local, regional, and global scales. There are a variety of models, each with strengths and weaknesses, that are suited for different management objectives. We find important trade-offs exist regarding the cost and capacity needed to run and interpret the models, the range of impacts they cover, and regarding the spatial scale that each operates which may overstate impacts at one end and underestimate impacts at the other. Understanding these differences is critical for managers and policy makers to make informed decisions about which model to use and how to interpret and apply the results.     

Variation in water use efficiency and δC levels in Eucalyptus grandis clones

This study aimed to determine whether the δ¹³C levels in the foliage and twigs of four Eucalyptus grandis clones were related to their water use efficiency (WUE). This relationship has previously been demonstrated in a number of herbaceous species but not in mature trees. The study involved accurate measurements of tree trunk growth and water use over a period of 4 months, with subsequent isotopic analysis of mature foliage from the north and south side of the canopy, and young leaves from the top of the canopy.

The water use efficiencies were found to vary from 5.97 × 10⁻³ to 12.3 × 10⁻³ m³ m⁻³. Significant differences were observed between clonal-mean water use efficiencies averaged over six sampling periods. The average δ¹³C of the mature and young foliage was found to be significantly correlated with WUE. However, the correlation was weak, suggesting that the relationship between δ¹³C and WUE is more complex in trees than suggested in the literature on crop plants. It is suggested that differences between sample trees in carbon allocation and leaf-to-air vapour pressure deficits may account for the poor correlation between δ¹³C and WUE in the four E. grandis clones studied.     

Spatial and temporal structure of a high-latitude transient ULF pulsation

Auroral radar observations of transient ULF pulsations with latitudinally varying period have recently been reported. An event of this type is analysed using data from the Scandinavian Magnetometer Array, the STARE radar, and the GEOS-2 satellite. The magnetometers show long-period (～450 s) oscillations consistent with the pulsations observed in the ionosphere using STARE, and confirm that the geomagnetic field shells are resonating in the toroidal mode. There is also a localised, small-amplitude component with 250-s period South of the STARE pulsations. Electric field measurements at GEOS-2 show only an impulsively stimulated pulsation of 250-s period. The wave fields at GEOS-2 imply that the satellite was earthward of a localised toroidal standing-wave resonance, which mapped to the ionosphere at least one degree South of the expected position. A radial profile of equatorial plasma mass density is inferred from the GEOS-2 and STARE results. This shows a radially increasing density near GEOS-2, and a radially decreasing density outside the satellite position.An interpretation of the event is given in which a tailward propagating hydromagnetic impulse directly stimulates field shells outside 7 R_E to oscillate at their eigenperiods. In the region of increasing density near GEOS-2, a relatively highly-damped surface wave is excited. This feeds energy rapidly into a narrow monochromatic toroidal field-line resonance, which subsequently decays more slowly through ionospheric dissipation.     

Transient ULF pulsation decay rates observed by ground based magnetometers: The contribution of spatial integration

Theoretical studies suggest that Joule dissipation in the ionosphere is the major source of damping for resonant ULF pulsations. The decay rates of transient pulsations (i.e. short-lived pulsations with latitude dependent periods) observed by ground based magnetometers are however generally larger than those predicted, and also larger than those observed in the magnetosphere. We have modelled the integration effects of ground based magnetometers on transient pulsations by considering empirical models of the associated ionospheric currents. The simulated ground magnetometer data show a smearing of the amplitude and period variations, which is more pronounced for smaller scale (specifically latitudinal) variations. The period increase with latitude is reduced, and may even be eliminated over appreciable latitude ranges. For all spatial scales the observed decay rates are typically 2–3 times larger than the true values, due to the additional decay resulting from spatial integration of the incoherent transient pulsations. Estimates of the ionospheric Pedersen conductance based on ground magnetometer observations of decay rates are correspondingly too small, and spurious gradients may be introduced. The present calculations reconcile observed decay rates on the ground with those predicted using the assumption that Joule dissipation is the dominant damping mechanism for toroidal mode resonant oscillations.     

Pc5 pulsations associated with ring current proton drifts: Stare radar observations

Detailed properties of a Pc5 pulsation with large azimuthal wavenumber observed using the STARE radar have recently been reported. A further four examples of this type of pulsation are presented, and it is shown that their properties are generally similar to those of the first example. However, there are some differences, the most important being that the variation of azimuthal phase velocity with latitude is significantly different for different time intervals during individual events, so that a mean phase velocity for a given latitude cannot be defined.When mapped to the equatorial plane in a dipole geomagnetic field, the variation of azimuthal phase velocity with L resembles the gradient-curvature drift of energetic protons in only a few time intervals within the events. The results are interpreted in terms of current theories of drift and bounce resonance of energetic particles with hydromagnetic waves. It is found that no single theory explains all aspects of the observations.