Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Fresnel modeling of hematite crystal surfaces and application to martian hematite spherules

The gray crystalline hematite at Meridiani Planum first discovered by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS-TES) instrument occurs as spherules that have been interpreted as concretions. Analysis of the TES and mini-TES spectra shows that no 390 cm⁻¹ feature is present in the characteristic martian hematite spectrum. Here, we incorporate the mid-IR optical constants of hematite into a simple Fresnel reflectance model to understand the effect of emission angle and crystal morphology on the presence or absence of the 390 cm⁻¹ feature in an IR hematite spectrum. Based on the results we offer two models for the internal structure of the martian hematite spherules.     

A sonic well log of the basement complex of the Walvis Ridge

A sonic well log was obtained within the basement complex of the Walvis Ridge during Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 74. The top of the basement complex is characterized by smooth acoustic reflectors. The rocks recovered within the basement complex consist of basalts with intercalated sediments. According to the log ～-50% of the upper 75 m of basement are igneous rocks and the other 50% sedimentary. Sonobuoy results indicate that the ratio of sediments to basalt increases with depth for an additional 225 m until a typical oceanic velocity structure is observed. Paleontological results suggest that the processes forming this upper 300 m of the basement complex was accomplished within a short time interval.     

Reconstruction of ancient sea conditions with an example from the Swiss Molasse

Ancient sea conditions can be estimated from the grain size, spacing and steepness of preserved ripple-marks. The element of greatest uncertainty in such reconstructions is the relationship between near-bed orbital diameter of water particles and the ripple spacing. This relationship is simple for vortex ripples of high steepness but is problematical for the low-steepness forms known as post-vortex, rolling-grain or anorbital ripples.

The existence field for wave ripples is between the threshold velocity for sediment movement and the onset of sheet flow, most low-steepness forms occurring close to the bed planation threshold. A range of maximum period of formative waves can be obtained using combinations of orbital diameter and orbital velocity, assuming linear wave theory to be a reasonable approximation.

Probable wave heights, wave lengths and water depths can be investigated using the transformation of wave parameters in shallowing waters and the constraints on wave dimensions provided by the wave-breaking condition. Given reasonable estimates of wave height, crude estimates of wave power allow a comparison of ancient wave-influenced sequences with modern counterparts.

Wave ripple-marks preserved in the Upper Marine Molasse of western Switzerland have been investigated. Results, which are in agreement with regional geology, suggest deposition in a seaway of approximately 100 km width, where moderate period waves (T = 3–6 s) were generated. The depositional facies belts were adjusted to the prevailing waves, tides and fluvial outflows.     

黄、渤海沿岸海冰测点代表性浅析

通过分析１９８０年以后的海冰资料和卫星云图照片，对黄、渤海沿岸１１个海冰测点的历史变迁进行了评述，浅析了测点的优劣及使用资料时应注意的事项。     

A note on the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on small amplitude water-wave propagation

In this note we investigated the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on wave propagation. Within the framework of linear water-wave theory, analytical solutions are obtained for damping rate, dispersion relation between wave frequency and wave number, and velocity components in the water column and mud layer. The wave attenuation rate reaches a maximum value when the mud layer thickness is about the same as the mud boundary layer thickness. Heavier mud has a weaker effect on the wave damping. However, the wave attenuation rate does not always decrease as the elastic shear modulus increases. In the range of small values for elastic shear modulus, the wave attenuation can be amplified quite significantly. The current solutions are compared with experimental data with different wave conditions and mud properties. In general, good agreements are observed.     

Coulometric total carbon dioxide analysis for marine studies: maximizing the performance of an automated gas extraction system and coulometric detector

A global survey of the distribution of dissolved CO₂ taking advantage of sampling opportunities provided by the World Ocean Circulation Experiment: World Hydrographic Program (WOCE-WHP) is being carried out through 1995. Goals include the measurement of oceanic inorganic carbon transport and the development of a data base from which future fossil-fuel CO₂ build-up can be monitored. The analytical method selected for total carbon dioxide (C_T) is gas extraction of acidified seawater with coulometric titration of the acid formed by the resultant carbon dioxide and monoethanolamine. To combine high accuracy and precision (± 1.5 μmol/kg for C_T ≥ 2000 μmol/kg) with a high rate of analysis, we have modified an automated single-parameter system. Following prototype development between 1987 and 1990, an instrument emerged with the acronym Somma standing for single-operator multiparameter metabolic analyzer. Improved functional and operating procedures have integrated electronic calibration, CO₂ gas calibration, and sample analysis with automated pressure, temperature, and conductivity (salinity) sensing into a single convenient transportable package.