西南区域中尺度数值模式预报性能及其与天气过程关系初探

本文以探空站和自动站实测资料为检验参考,通过主客观检验GRAPES和WRF模式在西南地区的初始分析场和预报场,一定程度揭示出模式在西南地区的初值质量、动力框架性能和降水参数化效果。GRAPES在西南地区的位势高度、风速、风向初值质量都不同程度好于WRF,但进入预报阶段,GRAPES位势高度、温度均方根误差以比WRF更高的斜率随时效增长,GRAPES对西南地区的500 hPa高度场预报呈现系统性偏低,而WRF对西南地区高度预报的正误差概率比较高;分类天气过程检验表明,GRAPES对低涡、切变过程的初始分析质量好于WRF,但进入预报阶段,WRF对低槽、低涡和切变三类天气过程的低值系统预报正确率都高于GRAPES,这一定程度反映出WRF的模式性能好于GRAPES;分类天气过程降水预报检验表明,低涡过程降水预报难于低槽过程。GRAPES对低涡过程的降水预报能力较低,WRF预报能力最低的是切变过程。这与模式对分类天气过程中低值系统预报能力一致,这一定程度表明两个模式的降水参数化效果水平相当。     

背景场资料与参数化方案对暴雨预报的影响

利用GRAPES—meso模式和T213资料,对2007年7月18日发生在我国四川盆地和华东地区一次大暴雨过程进行多组数值试验,以分析侧边界资料、驱动资料的垂直分辨率、模式积分区域、云物理参数及边界参数对GRAPES—nleso模式降水预报影响。试验结果表明：（1）侧边界资料对模式降水预报结果影响较小,驱动GRAPES—meso的全球模式产品质量提高,降水预报结果越好;（2）驱动资料垂直分辨率的高低对降水预报结果影响较大,分辨率越高,预报能力越强,反之越弱;（3）模式积分区域对降水预报结果也有明显影响,区域越大,降水预报未必总是最好;（4）物理过程和边界参数试验表明,WSM6方案与KFeta方案组合的24小时降水预报与实况更接近。     

Shear wave crustal velocity model of the Western Bohemian Massif from Love wave phase velocity dispersion

We propose a new quantitative determination of shear wave velocities for distinct geological units in the Bohemian Massif, Czech Republic (Central Europe). The phase velocities of fundamental Love wave modes are measured along two long profiles (~200 km) crossing three major geological units and one rift-like structure of the studied region. We have developed a modified version of the classical multiple filtering technique for the frequency-time analysis and we apply it to two-station phase velocity estimation. Tests of both the analysis and inversion are provided. Seismograms of three Aegean Sea earthquakes are analyzed. One of the two profiles is further divided into four shorter sub-profiles. The long profiles yield smooth dispersion curves; while the curves of the sub-profiles have complicated shapes. Dispersion curve undulations are interpreted as period-dependent apparent velocity anomalies caused both by different backazimuths of surface wave propagation and by surface wave mode coupling. An appropriate backazimuth of propagation is found for each period, and the dispersion curves are corrected for this true propagation direction. Both the curves for the long and short profiles are inverted for a 1D shear wave velocity model of the crust. Subsurface shear wave velocities are found to be around 2.9 km/s for all four studied sub-profiles. Two of the profiles crossing the older Moldanubian and Teplá-Barrandian units are characterized by higher velocities of 3.8 km/s in the upper crust while for the Saxothuringian unit we find the velocity slightly lower, around 3.6 km/s at the same depths. We obtain an indication of a shear wave low velocity zone above Moho in the Moldanubian and Teplá-Barrandian units. The area of the Eger Rift (Teplá-Barrandian–Saxothuringian unit contact) is significantly different from all other three units. Low upper crust velocities suggest sedimentary and volcanic filling of the rift as well as fluid activity causing the earthquake swarms. Higher velocities in the lower crust together with weak or even missing Moho implies the upper mantle updoming.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment I: numerical testing of methodological features

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA, Wiemer, Geoph Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000), provided for California within the frame of the STEP project, is based on a methodology, two features of which are addressed in detail: (1) the parameters of Omori’s law and (2) application of attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity exceedence probability. Concerning the first point, we perform a simple parametric study. We assume the generalized Omori’s law by Shcherbakov et al. (Geoph Res Lett 31:L11613, 2004), in which characteristic time c scales with aftershock magnitude. The study shows that, among all the parameters, the hazard is most sensitive to the choice of m* (controlling the overall aftershock productivity) and least sensitive to the scaling of c. We also conclude that the hazard is mainly due to very early (less than 1 day) aftershocks. As regards the second point, we employ various attenuation relations from different tectonic areas to study their effect on the hazard analysis. We conclude that the resulting variations are relatively large, comparable to those obtained for varying m*.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

一种四维绘图软件Vis5d使用要点简述

Vis5D是美国威士康星-麦迪逊大学空间科学与工程中心(SSEC)研制的可视化系统,主要有Bill Hibbard 和Johan Kellum 完成.Vis5D能够直观而清晰地显示3维立体图形,适用于中尺度研究结果,尤其是云物理结构研究.本文介绍了Vis5D的安装过程以及数据文件转换为v5d格式的方法,并以GRAPES数值模式输出产品为例进行了初步的可视化试验.     

两次西南涡降水的诊断分析

本文对比分析了2009年夏季两场西南涡引发的暴雨天气过程,通过对涡度各个贡献项以及几个热力诊断量的分析认为,促使西南涡发展的主要贡献是大气的辐合,其次是垂直输送,β效应项的贡献是最小的,可以忽略。从几个热力诊断量来看,通常对流有效位能的释放时间都会先于最强降水的出现时间。K指数和总体指数的极值出现时间一般也略早于最强降水的出现时间。对流有效位能和K指数以及总体指数都对降水预报有一定的指示作用。     

On strong ground motion synthesis with k −2 slip distributions

This study deals with the methodical aspects of k ^–2(Bernard et al., 1996) kinematic strong motions modelling: (1) it is shown how to incorporate the k-dependent rise time for 2D fault geometry in the strong motion synthesis according to the representation theorem, (2) it is suggested how to produce realistic k ^–2 slip models including asperity(ies), (3) modifications are introduced concerning the typeof used slip velocity function and the corner wave number in the slip distribution. High frequency effects of these generalized models are discussed.It is shown that, assuming the rise time proportional to the spatial slip wavelength at high wave numbers, the spectral decay of displacement at frequencies higher than the corner frequency is given just by the decay ofthe slip distribution spectrum, regardless of the type of slip velocity function. It is shown numerically that this model provides -squared source spectrum even in a vicinity of a 2D normal fault buried in 1D structure, which is an agreement with previous studies.     

Hydrophytes of the oases in the Sierra de la Giganta of Central Baja California Sur, Mexico: Floristic composition and conservation status

One of the features of the Sierra de la Giganta mountain range is the existence of many small riparian wetlands (oases) along drainage channels. There are no geohydrological studies from which to determine their dynamics in the arid environment, but these areas confront increasing water extraction to satisfy demands of small local settlements. This study compiled a checklist of the hydrophytes from 12 representative oases, and discusses their current status on the basis of composition, richness, and species characteristics. Floristic composition (absence–presence of 57 hydrophytes) at each location was classified by using UPGMA to represent a dendrogram of group cohesivity. Two major kinds of locations are present. By analysing individual site characteristics, we found that one group occurs in places under “good conservation conditions” and the other composed of locations that are “impacted” in several ways. The former group contains oases that are relatively rich in species, including most of the aquatic forms, which are sensitive to disturbance. Geographical affinity of the floristic list reveals that most species have a broad distribution, mostly in tropical America.