Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK

A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs.     

Future wave climate over the west-European shelf seas

In this paper, we investigate changes in the wave climate of the west-European shelf seas under global warming scenarios. In particular, climate change wind fields corresponding to the present (control) time-slice 1961–2000 and the future (scenario) time-slice 2061–2100 are used to drive a wave generation model to produce equivalent control and scenario wave climate. Yearly and seasonal statistics of the scenario wave climates are compared individually to the corresponding control wave climate to identify relative changes of statistical significance between present and future extreme and prevailing wave heights. Using global, regional and linked global–regional wind forcing over a set of nested computational domains, this paper further demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to the resolution and coverage of the forcing. It suggests that the use of combined forcing from linked global and regional climate models of typical resolution and coverage is a good option for the investigation of relative wave changes in the region of interest of this study. Coarse resolution global forcing alone leads to very similar results over regions that are highly exposed to the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, fine resolution regional forcing alone is shown to be insufficient for exploring wave climate changes over the western European waters because of its limited coverage. Results obtained with the combined global–regional wind forcing showed some consistency between scenarios. In general, it was shown that mean and extreme wave heights will increase in the future only in winter and only in the southwest of UK and west of France, north of about 44–45° N. Otherwise, wave heights are projected to decrease, especially in summer. Nevertheless, this decrease is dominated by local wind waves whilst swell is found to increase. Only in spring do both swell and local wind waves decrease in average height.     

Parameterization of wind turbine impacts on hydrodynamics and sediment transport

Monopile foundations of offshore wind turbines modify the hydrodynamics and sediment transport at local and regional scales. The aim of this work is to assess these modifications and to parameterize them in a regional model. In the present study, this is achieved through a regional circulation model, coupled with a sediment transport module, using two approaches. One approach is to explicitly model the monopiles in the mesh as dry cells, and the other is to parameterize them by adding a drag force term to the momentum and turbulence equations. Idealised cases are run using hydrodynamical conditions and sediment grain sizes typical from the area located off Courseulles-sur-Mer (Normandy, France), where an offshore windfarm is under planning, to assess the capacity of the model to reproduce the effect of the monopile on the environment. Then, the model is applied to a real configuration on an area including the future offshore windfarm of Courseulles-sur-Mer. Four monopiles are represented in the model using both approaches, and modifications of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport are assessed over a tidal cycle. In relation to local hydrodynamic effects, it is observed that currents increase at the side of the monopile and decrease in front of and downstream of the monopile. In relation to sediment transport effect, the results show that resuspension and erosion occur around the monopile in locations where the current speed increases due to the monopile presence, and sediments deposit downstream where the bed shear stress is lower. During the tidal cycle, wakes downstream of the monopile reach the following monopile and modify the velocity magnitude and suspended sediment concentration patterns around the second monopile.     

2DV modelling of sediment transport processes over full-scale ripples in regular asymmetric oscillatory flow

Wave-induced, steep vortex ripples are ubiquitous features in shallow coastal seas and it is therefore important to fully understand and model the sediment transport processes that occur over them. To this end, two two-dimensional vertical (2DV) models have been critically tested against detailed velocity and sediment concentration measurements above mobile ripples in regular asymmetric oscillatory flow. The two models are a k–ω turbulence-closure model and a discrete-vortex, particle-tracking (DVPT) model, while the data are obtained in the Aberdeen oscillatory flow tunnel (AOFT). The models and the data demonstrate that the time-dependent velocity and suspended sediment concentration above the ripple are dominated by the generation of lee-side vortices and their subsequent ejection at flow reversal. The DVPT model predicts the positions and strengths of the vortices reasonably well, but tends to overpredict the velocity close to the ripple surface. The k–ω model, on the other hand, underpredicts the height to which the vortices are lifted, but is better able to predict the velocity close to the bed. In terms of the cycle- and ripple-averaged horizontal velocity, both models are able to reproduce the observed offshore flow close to and below the ripple crest and the DVPT model is able to produce the onshore flow higher up. In the vicinity of the vortices, the DVPT model better represents the concentration (because of its better prediction of vorticity). The k–ω model, on the other hand, better represents the concentration close to the ripple surface and higher up in the flow (because of the better representation of the near-bed flow and background turbulence). The measured and predicted cycle- and ripple-averaged suspended sediment concentrations are in reasonable agreement and demonstrate the expected region of exponential decay. The models are able to reproduce the observed offshore cycle- and ripple-averaged suspended sediment flux from the ripple troughs upwards, and as a result, produce net offshore suspended sediment transport rates that are in reasonable agreement. The net measured offshore suspended transport rate, based on the integration of fluxes, was found to be consistent with the total net offshore transport measured in the tunnel as a whole once the onshore transport resulting from ripple migration was taken into account, as would be expected. This demonstrates the importance of models being able to predict ripple-migration rates. However, at present neither of the models is able to do so.