On ensemble prediction of ocean waves

The numerical ensemble prediction is a well accepted method for improving the performance of atmospheric models. In the context of ocean wave modeling little has been researched or documented about this technique. An essential study of the method of ensemble prediction applied to deep water waves has been carried out. A framework is defined for obtaining perturbations of the directional wave spectra and for employing an ensemble of wind fields generated by an atmospheric model. The third-generation global wave model WAM is used with real atmospheric conditions to investigate the effect on wave predictions of perturbed initial conditions and atmospheric forcing. Due to spectral shape stabilisation, perturbing wave initial conditions has limited utility in ensemble prediction. However, the members could be used in wave data assimilation schemes in an interactive way. Using ensembles of the atmospheric condition can generate diverging solutions, justifying the ensemble procedure by itself. In the cases studied, it is observed that the ensemble mean outperformed the other members. The solution behaviour suggests using a lower-order approximation of the model to generate ensemble members with less computational cost.     

Permanent Scatterers for landslide investigations: outcomes from the ESA-SLAM project

Within the SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), launched in 2003 by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique, a multi-image interferometric approach, coupled with the interpretation of aerial-photos and optical satellite images, was carried out for landslide investigations. The PS analysis was applied at a regional scale as support for landslide inventory mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known slope movements. For the integration of the PS measurements within a landslide inventory the Arno river basin (Italy) was chosen as test site for the presence of a high number of mass movements (to date about 300 areas at high landslide risk and more than 27,000 individual landslides mapped by the institutional authorities). About 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, with the detection of about 600,000 PS. The use of optical images contributed spatial meaning to the point-wise information provided by the PS, making it easier to identify terrain features related to slope instability and the landslide boundaries. Here we describe the employed methodology and its impact in the updating of a preexisting landslide inventory. 6.8% of the total number of landslides were characterized by ground displacement measurements from the PS: 6.1% of already mapped landslides and 0.8% of new unstable areas detected through the PS analysis. Moreover, most of the PS are located in urban areas, showing that the proposed methodology is suitable for landslide mapping in areas with a quite high density of urbanization, but that over vegetated areas it still suffers from the limitations induced by the current space-borne SAR missions (e.g. temporal de-correlation). On the other hand, the use of InSAR for the monitoring of single slow landslides threatening built-up areas has provided satisfactory results, allowing the measurement of superficial deformations with high accuracy on the landslide sectors characterized by a good radar reflectivity and coherence.     

Urban forest loss using a GIS-based approach and instruments for integrated urban planning:A case study of Jo(a)o Pessoa,Brazil

Urban forests play an important role in the thermal comfort and overall life of local populations in large-and medium-sized cities.This study analyzes urban forest loss and maps land use and land cover (LULC) changes between 1991 and 2018 by evaluating the use of urban planning instruments for the mitigation of urban forest loss in Jo～o Pessoa,Brazil.For this purpose,satellite-derived LULC images from 1991,2006,2010 and 2018 and data on urban forest loss areas obtained using the Google Earth Engine were used.In addi-tion,this paper also discusses the instruments used for integrated urban planning,which are(a) the legal sector,responsibility and nature;(b) the urban expansion process;and (c) the elements of urban infrastructure.The results show a clear shift in land use in the study area.The major changes in LULC classes occurred in urban areas and herbaceous vegetation,while the greatest loss was in arboreal/shrub vegetation.Thus,an increase in the pressure to occupy zones intended for environmental preservation could be estimated.Our results showed similar accuracies with other studies and more spatial details.The characteristics of the patterns,traces,and hotspots of urban expansion and forest cover loss were explored.We highlighted the potential use of this proposed framework to be applied and validated in other parts of the world to help better understand and quantify various aspects of ur-ban-related problems such as urban forest loss mapping using instruments for integrated urban planning and low-cost approaches.     

Combined influence of PDO and ENSO on northern Andean glaciers: a case study on the Cotopaxi ice-covered volcano,Ecuador

This paper describes the application of remote sensing in monitoring the fluctuations in one of the mountain glaciers in the Ecuadorean Andes during the past few decades using ASTER, EO-1 ALI, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM + images. Satellite images were used to calculate the snow line altitudes (SLAs) during the period 1979–2013. Cotopaxi ice covered volcano was studied as representative of Ecuadorian glaciers in the eastern cordillera. Precipitation and air temperature data from various gauging stations within the range of 30 km from the study site and monthly discharge and water level data from a gauging station were also utilized in this study. Anomalies in precipitation and temperature were found to be slightly different in the Cotopaxi region compared to nearby Antizana in the same cordillera and Chimborazo region in the western cordillera. An attempt to correlate the El Niño—southern oscillation phenomenon with the glacier fluctuations in Ecuadorian Andes was done successfully. Cold and warm regimes of Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also considered. The calculated glacier fluctuations obtained were similar to that performed on the nearby Antizana 15 in the eastern cordillera during 1995–2002. Precipitation and temperature anomalies were similar with Antizana 15. It is evident from the research that SLAs were highly fluctuated between the period of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events. It is also seen that the glacier fluctuations show a negative mass balance trend in during the warm regime of Pacific Decadal Oscillation during the past three decades. Glaciated areas were advanced during the La Nina events in the cold regime of PDO during 1998–2002.     

The visible and near infrared module of EChO

The Visible and Near Infrared (VNIR) is one of the modules of EChO, the Exoplanets Characterization Observatory proposed to ESA for an M-class mission. EChO is aimed to observe planets while transiting by their suns. Then the instrument had to be designed to assure a high efficiency over the whole spectral range. In fact, it has to be able to observe stars with an apparent magnitude M_v?=?9–12 and to see contrasts of the order of 10^?4–10^?5 necessary to reveal the characteristics of the atmospheres of the exoplanets under investigation. VNIR is a spectrometer in a cross-dispersed configuration, covering the 0.4–2.5 μm spectral range with a resolving power of about 330 and a field of view of 2 arcsec. It is functionally split into two channels respectively working in the 0.4–1.0 μm and 1.0–2.5 μm spectral ranges. Such a solution is imposed by the fact the light at short wavelengths has to be shared with the EChO Fine Guiding System (FGS) devoted to the pointing of the stars under observation. The spectrometer makes use of a HgCdTe detector of 512 by 512 pixels, 18 μm pitch and working at a temperature of 45 K as the entire VNIR optical bench. The instrument has been interfaced to the telescope optics by two optical fibers, one per channel, to assure an easier coupling and an easier colocation of the instrument inside the EChO optical bench.     

Mhd Leaky Waves in a Layered Plasma: II Mechanisms of Leakage

The application of Fourier analysis to study leaky waves has the advantage of simplicity, but it is not clear why the complex roots of the dispersion relations represent leaky waves, nor how the leakage occurs. We investigate the different kinds of leakage that can occur in a three layer plasma, and to which Fourier pseudomodes they are associated. We find four basic mechanisms, called surface mode ..., single interface ..., trapped wave ... and lost insulation leakage. These mechanisms appear in pure form only near certain limiting cases, in which the parameters of the problem take some special values. As soon as the parameters depart significantly from the limiting values, the behavior of the leaky wave complicates and mixtures of the mechanisms occur, in varying amounts. In consequence different points of the same complex branch of the spectrum may correspond to different mechanisms. All the complex branches of the spectrum correspond to leaky waves, but in general it is not possible to classify them according to type of leakage, except close to a limiting case. Since in a three layer configuration there are many of these, the spectrum of leaky waves is very complicated.     

Synthesis of a seismic virtual reflector*

We describe a method to process the seismic data generated by a plurality of sources and registered by an appropriate distribution of receivers, which provides new seismic signals as if in the position of the receivers (or sources) there was an ideal reflector, even if this reflector is not present there. The data provided by this method represent the signals of a virtual reflector. The proposed algorithm performs the convolution and the subsequent sum of the real traces without needing subsurface model information. The approach can be used in combination with seismic interferometry to separate wavefields and process the reflection events. The application is described with synthetic examples, including stationary phase analysis and with real data in which the virtual reflector signal can be appreciated.     

Comparison of Different Techniques of Tilt Testing and Basic Friction Angle Variability Assessment

A relevant parameter for estimating discontinuity shear strength is the basic friction angle, usually derived from different types of tilt tests. However, the tilt tests described in the literature produce varying basic friction angle values. From a large number of different types of tilt tests on different kinds of rocks, it was possible to conclude that the mechanisms of sliding along cylinder generatrixes and planar surfaces are quite different, and that tests based on sliding along generatrixes are not appropriate for determining reliable basic friction angle values for discontinuity planes. Tests on small specimens are also not recommended, for geometry reasons and because ensuring reliable stress conditions is difficult. To quantify the natural variability in tilt testing, large specimens of the same granite were tested. The results revealed coefficients of variation for the basic friction angle in the range of 5–10?%, a variability which is no greater than that found for other rock mechanics parameters. This observation enables to forward some recommendations concerning the appropriate number of tests needed to obtain reliable results.     

Seismic interferometry experiment in a shallow cased borehole using a seismic vibrator source‡

We present the results of a seismic interferometry experiment in a shallow cased borehole. The experiment is an initial study for subsequent borehole seismic surveys in an instrumented well site, where we plan to test other surface/borehole seismic techniques. The purpose of this application is to improve the knowledge of the reflectivity sequence and to verify the potential of the seismic interferometry approach to retrieve high‐frequency signals in the single well geometry, overcoming the loss and attenuation effects introduced by the overburden. We used a walkaway vertical seismic profile (VSP) geometry with a seismic vibrator to generate polarized vertical and horizontal components along a surface seismic line and an array of 3C geophones cemented outside the casing. The recorded traces are processed to obtain virtual sources in the borehole and to simulate single‐well gathers with a variable source‐receiver offset in the vertical array. We compare the results obtained by processing the field data with synthetic signals calculated by numerical simulation and analyse the signal bandwidth and amplitude versus offset to evaluate near‐field effects in the virtual signals. The application provides direct and reflected signals with improved bandwidth after vibrator signal deconvolution. Clear reflections are detected in the virtual seismic sections in agreement with the geology and other surface and borehole seismic data recorded with conventional seismic exploration techniques.