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Birgir Hrafnkelsson Kristinn M. Ingimarsson Sigurdur M. Gardarsson Arni Snorrason 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(1):1-20
River discharges are traditionally modeled by employing a standard power-law methodology. Recently, the Bayesian approached
has successfully been applied to improve the estimates of the standard power-law. In this article, an extension to the standard
power-law based on Bayesian B-splines is developed and tested on data sets from 61 different rivers. The extended model is
evaluated against the standard power-law using two measures, the Deviance Information Criterion and Bayes factor. The extended
model captures deviations in the data from the standard power-law but reduces to the standard power-law when that model is
adequate. The standard power-law is inadequate for 26% of the rivers while the extended model provides an adequate fit in
all of those cases and for the remaining 74% of the rivers the extended model and the power-law model both give adequate fit
with almost identical estimates. 相似文献
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