Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

First seismic imaging results of tectonically complex structures at shallow depths beneath the northwest Canterbury Plains,New Zealand

Seismogenic structures underlie many regions of the vast Canterbury Plains on the South Island of New Zealand. Most of these structures are hidden beneath a layer of rapidly deposited Late Pleistocene sediments, the youth and thickness of which make the general application of conventional paleoseismological studies impractical. In an attempt to improve our understanding of potentially active structures in this region, we have acquired, processed and interpreted shallow seismic reflection data across the northwest Canterbury Plains. To separate the useful reflected signals from unusually high amplitude ambient and source-generated noise, we subjected the data to a specially tailored processing scheme that included time- and space-variant spectral balancing, custom static corrections and mutes, F-X deconvolution, DMO corrections and finite-difference migration. The final stacked and migrated seismic sections supply high-resolution images of the basement and overlying layered Cretaceous- to Quaternary-age supracrustal rocks that have been complexly faulted and folded. At one location, the uppermost Late Pleistocene layers appear to have been gently buckled.     

A study of the geoelectrical properties of peatlands and their influence on ground-penetrating radar surveying1

Geophysical surveys and chemical analyses on cores were carried out in three Ontario peatlands, from which we have gained a better understanding of the peat properties that control the geophysical responses. The electrical conductivity depends linearly on the concentration of total dissolved solids in the peat pore waters and the pore waters in turn bear the ionic signatures of the underlying mineral sediments. The ionic concentration, and thus the electrical conductivity, increase linearly from the surface to basement. The average bulk electrical conductivity of peatlands at Ellice Marsh, near Stratford, and at Wally Creek Area Forest Drainage Project, near Cochrane, are of the order of 25 mS/m. The Mer Bleue peatland, near Ottawa, has extremely high electrical conductivity, reaching levels of up to 380 mS/m near the base of the peat. The Mer Bleue peatland water has correspondingly high values of total dissolved solids, which originate from the underlying Champlain Sea glaciomarine clays. The dielectric permittivity in peats is largely controlled by the bulk water content. Ground penetrating radar can detect changes in water content greater than 3%, occurring within a depth interval less than 15 cm. The principal peatland interfaces detected are the near-surface aerobic to anaerobic transition and the peat to mineral basement contact. The potential for the successful detection of the basement contact using the radar can be predicted using the radar instrument specifications, estimates of the peatland depth, and either the bulk peat or the peat pore water electrical conductivities. Predicted depths of penetration of up to 10 m for Ellice Marsh and Wally Creek exceed the observed depths of 1 to 2 m. At Mer Bleue, on the other hand, we observe that, as predicted, a 100 MHz signal will penetrate to the base of a 2 m thick peat but a 200 MHz signal will not.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Adaptation to the infectious disease impacts of climate change

Climate change has the potential to increase the challenge of preventing and controlling outbreaks of infectious diseases. An adaptation assessment is an important aspect of designing and implementing policies and measures to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to infectious diseases outbreaks. The main steps in conducting an adaptation assessment include: 1) evaluating the effectiveness of policies and measures that address the burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases; 2) identifying options to manage the health risks of current and projected climate change; 3) evaluating and prioritizing the options; 4) identifying human and financial resources needs, and possible barriers, constraints, and limits to implementation; and 5) developing monitoring and evaluation programs to ensure continued effectiveness of policies and measures in a changing climate. Optimally, relevant stakeholders are optimally included throughout the adaptation assessment. Although the process of conducting an assessment is similar across nations and regions, the context and content will vary depending on local circumstances, socioeconomic conditions, legal and regulatory frameworks, and other factors. The European Centers for Disease Prevention and Control developed guidelines for conducting assessments, with sufficient consistency to facilitate learning lessons across assessments.     

The impact of extreme heat on morbidity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Given predictions of increased intensity and frequency of heat waves, it is important to study the effect of high temperatures on human mortality and morbidity. Many studies focus on heat wave-related mortality; however, heat-related morbidity is often overlooked. The goals of this study are to examine the historical observed relationship between temperature and morbidity (illness), and explore the extent to which observed historical relationships could be used to generate future projections of morbidity under climate change. We collected meteorological, air pollution, and hospital admissions data in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the years 1989–2005, and employed a generalized additive model (GAM) to quantify the relationship between morbidity (as measured by hospital admissions) and high temperatures with adjustment for the effects of potential confounders. We also estimated temperature threshold values for different causes of hospital admissions and then quantified the associated percent increase of admissions per degree above the threshold. Finally, the future impact of higher temperatures on admissions for the years 2059–2075 was examined. Our results show that five causes of admission (endocrine, genitourinary, renal, accidental, and self-harm) and three age groups (15–64, 75–84, >85 years) were affected by high temperatures. Future projections indicate a larger number of days above the current temperature threshold leading to an increase in admissions. Our results indicate that climate change may increase heat-related hospital admissions in the US urban mid-West and that health systems should include heat wave planning.