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1.
Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff
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We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AICC] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component. 相似文献
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The alkenone unsaturation index UK′37 has been applied to reconstruct past temperature changes in both marine and lacustrine systems. However, few studies have addressed whether the relative abundance of the C37:4 alkenone to the total C37 production (%C37:4) can reflect surface salinity changes in lacustrine systems. Here we present long-chain C37 alkenone distribution patterns in surface sediments from Lake Qinghai, China. Surface sediments were sampled over a large range of surface salinity changes (1.7-25 g/l) within Lake Qinghai and its surrounding lakes, while temperature differences at these sampling locations should be relatively small. We have found that %C37:4 varies from 15% to 49% as surface salinity decreases. We tentatively describe this %C37:4-salinity link with a general linear regression: %C37:4 = 53.4 (±7.8) − 1.73 (±0.45) × S (n = 28, r2 = 0.62), although step-wise %C37:4 changes in response to salinity variation may exist. UK′37 values vary between 0.10 and 0.16 at these sites and the inferred range of lake water temperature changes is ∼2-3 °C, suggesting that UK′37 largely reflects temperature signal across a large salinity range, consistent with previous findings that UK′37 can indicate temperature changes over a large diversity of environmental settings. We have also found that UK′37 values are correlated with salinity changes (r2 = 0.4), and thus cannot exclude potential temperature effect on %C37:4 and salinity effect on UK′37 in this study. However, even extreme estimates of temperature differences within the lake are still unable to explain the observed %C37:4 changes. We therefore suggest that %C37:4 could be used to infer past lake salinity changes at a regional scale. 相似文献
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Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Daniel G. Brown Derek T. Robinson Li An Moira Zellner William Rand Rick Riolo Bobbi Low 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):805-818
We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns. 相似文献
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印支运动的沉积学响应——以湖北秭归盆地中、上三叠统为例 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
通过对秭归盆地南缘中、上三叠统巴东组和沙镇溪组地层剖面的实测及1∶10万秭归幅地质填图发现,中三叠统巴东组在秭归盆地东南缘存在不同程度的缺失,秭归郭家坝一带,只沉积巴东组一段、二段地层。秭归楠家湾一带,整个巴东组全部缺失,上三叠统沙镇溪组直接覆盖于早三叠世嘉陵江组之上。而秭归盆地西缘沙镇溪、巴东麂子岩一带,巴东组发育齐全。上述现象表明,在早三叠世末期,由于印支运动的影响,巴东组地层出现了较大差异。沙镇溪组在沉积上继承了巴东组高低不平的古地貌特征,沉积厚度变化较大。上三叠统沙镇溪组与中统巴东组之间,在盆地不同的部位可呈现出整合或平行不整合的接触关系,而不存在断层接触关系。 相似文献
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A Forced System of Two Cylinders with Various Spacings 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
The spectrum characteristics and wake structures for a circular cylinder oscillating in a wake are investigated by use of the currently modified virtual boundary method. A forced system of two cylinders with a small spacing ( the downstream one is made to oscillate in the transverse direction) is studied and interesting flow characteristics are observed. A vortex switch and the change of vortex modes (between 2S mode and 2P mode) are observed in the “lock-in“ region. Vortex bands are formed and lost with the increasing excitation frequency. Information concerning saddle points in the flow field is obtained for different excitation frequencies. For a forced system of two cylinders with a large spacing, the upstream cylinder sheds vortexes because there is no downstream cylinder oscillating in the wake. No distinct “lock-in“ response is found for the downstream cylinder. 相似文献
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2月26日,在北京展览馆举办的由科技部、解放军总装备部主办,科技部高技术研究发展中心承办的“863”计划15年成就展览,展示了我国实施这一计划15周年取得的丰硕成果。海洋高技术是国家高技术研究开发计划的重要组成部分。展览会上,参观者们饶有兴趣地参观了令人瞩目的海洋高技术。 发展海洋高技术,是揭示海洋奥秘、维护海 相似文献
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现代黄河三角洲土地利用变化分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
人类对海岸带的开发利用影响着海岸的变迁。土地利用和土地覆被变化可以说是自然与人文过程交叉最为密切的问题,是人地关系的具体体现。通过对黄河三角洲土地利用变化的研究,可了解人为因素对三角洲海岸带的开发利用状况及其对海岸侵蚀的影响。根据1987年和2001年两期卫星遥感图像和2001年野外调查数据,运用地理信息系统方法及数理统计方法,分析了现代黄河三角洲地区1987年至2001年土地利用/覆被的数量变化和空间变化特征;揭示了该地区各类土地利用数量变化的幅度、速度和土地利用空间变化的主要类型;阐明了该区各类土地利用变化的区域特点。该地区土地利用变化速度比整个环渤海地区速度快,草地、滩地和不明地类这3种类型大量减少,其他类型增多。从变化率来看,养殖区、库塘、油田用地增长最快。库塘、海滩养殖区等类型的增加,滨海草地的减少,使海岸侵蚀加剧。 相似文献