Empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of Icelandic buildings affected by the 2000 sequence of earthquakes

In June 2000, two Mw6.5 earthquakes occurred within a 4-day interval in the largest agricultural region of Iceland causing substantial damage and no loss of life. The distance between the earthquake epicentres and the fault rupture was approximately 15 km. Nearly 5000 low-rise residential buildings were affected, some of which were located between the faults and exposed to strong ground motion from both events. The post-earthquakes damage and repair costs for every residential building in the epicentral region were assessed for insurance purposes. The database is detailed and complete for the whole region and represents one of the best quality post-earthquake vulnerability datasets used for seismic loss estimation. Nonetheless, the construction of vulnerability curves from this database is hampered by the fact that the loss values represent the cumulative damage from two sequential earthquakes in some areas, and single earthquakes in others. A novel methodology based on beta regression is proposed here in order to define the geographical limits on areas where buildings sustained cumulative damage and predict the seismic losses for future sequence of events in each area. The results show that the average building loss in areas affected by a single event is below 10% of the building replacement value, whilst this increases to an average of 25% in areas affected by the two earthquakes. The proposed methodology can be used to empirically assess the vulnerability in other areas which experienced sequence of events such as Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in 2012.     

Investigating dynamic coupling in geospace through the combined use of modeling,simulations and data analysis

Comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system is of utmost interest, both from the perspective of solar system astrophysics and geophysics research and from the perspective of space applications. The physical processes involved in the dynamical evolution of this complex coupled system are pertinent not only for the Sun-Earth connection, but also for major phenomena in other astrophysical systems. Furthermore, the conditions in geospace collectively termed space weather affect the ever increasing technological assets of mankind in space and therefore need to be understood, quantified and efficiently forecasted. The present collaborative paper communicates recent advances in geospace dynamic coupling research through modeling, simulations and data analysis and discusses future directions.     

Performance of pile-restrained flexible floating breakwaters

The overall performance of pile-restrained flexible floating breakwaters is investigated under the action of linear monochromatic incident waves in the frequency domain. The aforementioned floating breakwaters undergo only vertical structural deflections along their length and are held in place by means of vertical piles. The total number of degrees of freedom equals the six conventional body modes, when the breakwater moves as a rigid body, plus the extra bending modes. These bending modes are introduced to represent the structural deflections of the floating breakwater and are described by the Bernoulli–Euler flexible beam equation. The number of bending modes introduced is determined through an appropriate iterative procedure. The hydrostatic coefficients corresponding to the bending modes are also derived. The numerical analysis of the flexible floating breakwaters is based on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic formulation of the floating body. A parametric study is carried out for a wide range of structural stiffness parameters and wave headings, to investigate their effect on the performance of flexible floating breakwaters. Moreover, this performance is compared with that of the corresponding pile-restrained rigid floating breakwater. Results indicated that the degree of structural stiffness and the wave heading strongly affect the performance of flexible floating breakwaters. The existence of an “optimum” value of structural stiffness is demonstrated for the entire wave frequency range.     

Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.     

Survey of estrogenic and androgenic disruption in Swedish coastal waters by the analysis of bile fluid from perch and biomarkers in the three-spined stickleback

The potential for endocrine disruption close to sewage treatment plant and pulp mill effluent discharge points along the Swedish Baltic Sea coast was explored using a dual survey strategy employing two stationary fish species. The levels of vitellogenin and spiggin as biomarkers of endocrine disruption were determined in juvenile three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) together with the sex ratios and the presence of intersex. As an indication of exposure, estrogenic and androgenic substances were analysed by GC–MS in bile from perch (Perca fluviatilis L.). Spiggin and vitellogenin levels in juvenile three-spined sticklebacks were generally low, and, for most sampling sites no deviation in gonad type ratios were observed. No remarkable levels of natural or synthetic estrogens or androgens were observed in bile fluid from perch, while bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol were detected in perch from both reference sites and exposed sites. Taken together, the results did not indicate estrogenic or androgenic disruption in the investigated waters.     

Geotechnical and mineralogical properties of weak rocks from Central Greece

Thirty bulk samples of hard soils-soft rocks such as marls, originating from Euboea Island and Peloponnesus area, were investigated to evaluate their geotechnical behavior. Specifically, by conducting a series of physical and geotechnical tests, such as liquid limit and plastic limit tests, along with the estimation of the grain size fraction, Slake Durability and Point Load Test. Certain parameters were determined and used for empirical correlations with their mineralogical characteristics. The mineralogical composition was determined by X-ray diffraction, thermo-gravimetric and thermal analysis, succeeded by textural analysis performed by Optical Microscope. With the help of the above mentioned tests, we interpreted the observed geotechnical behavior of the examined weak rocks by means of mineralogical composition and texture. Durability and the unconfined compressive strength was found to be influenced by high percentages in carbonate minerals. In addition, it was found that a decrease in clay content resulted in higher strength and durability values. The concluded empirical correlations verified the influence of these parameters and gave a general overview of the engineering behavior of the examined weak rocks.     

Composition and sources of dissolved and particulate PAH in surface waters from the Rhone delta (NW Mediterranean)

PAH were determined in surface waters from the Rhone delta in winter and summer 1987. Both particulate and dissolved phases were analyzed by GC and GC/MS. Concentrations of major unsubstituted compounds associated with particles varied from a few to 20 ng l⁻¹, or from 0.42 to 6.0 μg g⁻¹. The seasonal variations reflected higher inputs in winter resulting from the presence of highly PAH-enriched particles. Tetra- and penta-cyclic PAH with MW 202 and 252 predominated, which reflected a significant origin from pyrolytic processes. A rapid decrease of the level of higher MW PAH was observed seawards in both seasons. Study of the tricyclic compounds and their alkylated homologues demonstrated a mainly fossil origin in winter, whereas in summer a high heterogeneity of particles was observed. PAH in the dissolved phase were found at concentrations up to 31 and 50 ng l⁻¹ in summer and winter, respectively. These levels were much higher than those encountered in the corresponding particulate phases. PAH with MW 178 and 202 predominated, and the alkylated homologues of the tricyclic compounds showed a major fossil orgin in winter and a mixed origin in summer. In winter dissolved PAH were transported through the delta into the marine environment without significant losses.     

Plasmaspheric electron density reconstruction based on the topside sounder model profiler

We apply a model-assisted technique to construct the topside electron density profile based on Digisonde measurements. This technique uses the Topside Sounder Model (TSM), which provides the plasma scale height, O⁺-H⁺ transition height, and their ratio Rt = H _T /h _T , derived from topside sounder data of Alouette and ISIS satellites. The Topside Sounder Model Profiler (TSMP) incorporates TSM and uses the model quantities as anchor points for the construction of topside density profiles. TSMP provides its model ratios with transition height and plasmaspheric scale height. The analysis carried out indicates that Digisonde derived F-region topside scale height Hm is systematically lower than one derived from topside sounder profiles. To construct topside profiles by using Hm, a correction factor of around 3 is needed to multiply the neutral scale height in the α-Chapman formula. It was found that the plasmaspheric scale height strongly depends on latitude and its ratio with the F-region scale height expresses large day-to-day variability.     

Organic matter composition of the continental shelf and bathyal sediments of the Cretan Sea (NE Mediterranean)

The seasonal, spatial and bathymetric changes in the distribution of chloroplastic pigments (Chl a, phaeopigments and CPE), TOC, TON, ATP, bottom water nutrient content and the main biochemical classes of organic compounds (lipids, proteins and carbohydrates) were recorded from May 1994 to September 1995 over the continental margin of northern Crete. The concentration of chloroplastic pigment equivalents (CPE) was always low, dropping dramatically along the shelf-slope gradient. Microbial activity (ATP) also dropped sharply beyond the continental shelf following a distribution pattern similar to TOC and TON. Lipid, protein and carbohydrate concentrations, as well as biopolymeric carbon were comparable to those reported for other more productive areas, however, the quality of the organic matter itself was rather poor. Thus, carbohydrates, the dominant biochemical class, were characterised by being highly (80–99%) refractory, as soluble carbohydrates represented (on annual average) only 6% of the total carbohydrate pool. Protein and lipid concentrations strongly decreased with depth, indicating depletion of trophic resources in the bathyal zone. Proteins appeared to be the more degradable compounds and indeed the protein to carbohydrate ratios were found to decrease strongly in the deeper stations. Organic matter content and quality decreased both with increasing distance from the coast and within the sediment. All sedimentary organic compounds were found to vary between sampling periods, with the changes being more pronounced over the continental shelf. The different temporal patterns of the various components suggest a different composition and/or origin of the OM inputs during the different sampling periods. The amount of material reaching the sediments below 540 m is extremely low, suggesting that most of the organic material is decomposed and/or utilised before reaching the sea floor. In conclusion, the continental shelf and bathyal sediments of the Cretan Sea can be considered, from a trophic point of view, as two different subsystems.