Control over natural resources in ecological economical systems

We consider the problem of stable development of natural economical complexes from the viewpoint of basic balances in an ecological economical system. We construct a basic dynamical model of the complex capable of predicting various scenarios of the industrial development, consumption of natural resources, and pollution of the environment and propose a mechanism of control over the process of development by introducing rent payments for the use of natural resources and ecological fines for the pollution of the environment. The efficiency of the applied model is demonstrated by analysing the process of control over the concentration of biological resources in marine media as an example. We describe the results of numerical experiments performed to show the possibility of creation of the information technology of control over marine bioresources. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Adaptive balance of global development processes

We study the processes of global self-regulation of Earth’s biota (GAIA-theory) by applying the method of adaptive balance of causes proposed by the authors. By using, as an example, the Daisy World model constructed by this method, we reveal the phenomenon of preservation of the mean temperature of Earth’s surface due to the presence of the vegetation cover. We develop an integral model of global natural, social, and economic processes in which the World Ocean is one of the factors regulating the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The decrease in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by the GAIA-effects increases the number of hurricanes and floods on the Earth. As a result, the levels of ecological and social hazards for the mankind become much higher. To eliminate these threats, it is necessary to intensify the processes of self-organization of the society realized via the improvement of education, development of science, and global regulation of the competition for natural resources. We present the results of numerical experiments performed by using the model demonstrating possible scenarios of global development with regard for the processes of self-organization of the society. __________ Translated From Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, Pp. 62–80, May–June, 2007.     

Simulation ABC Model of Consumption of Natural Resources

The problem of simulation of possible scenarios of the development of processes running in ecological economic systems is studied as a part of the general problem of control over natural economic complexes. The consumption of mineral, food, and ecological resources is regarded as credits given by the society to the producer and then refunded as a part of his gains. If this nature-protective tax does not compensate the damage to the environment caused by production, then the debt of the producer (called accumulated credit) appears and, finally, the process of consumption of the resources is terminated. A universal simulation model is constructed by using a new method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC method). We present basic concepts of this method and some examples of application of the simulation model to the analysis of various scenarios of consumption of marine bioresources under variable economic conditions for a marine environment with variable assimilation capacity.     

Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.     

Four-dimensional analysis of the variability of hydrophysical fields in the tropical atlantic and on the shelf of guinea

The problem of monitoring of the mesoscale variability of hydrophysical fields in the shelf zone is considered. The usefulness of the data available in regional information centres is discussed. The possibility of monitoring the dynamics of the oceanic fields in the tropical Atlantic encompassing separate observation sites is demonstrated using the oceanographic databank of the scientific research centre (CERESCOR) in Conakry-Rogbane as an example. The results of assimilation of the hydrophysical survey data derived on the shelf in a telescopic model of the region are given.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Management of the coastal-sea-zone-ecosystem model

We present a model of the processes of development in the ecosystem of the coastal zone of the sea constructed by the method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method). The model contains nine variables (phyto- and zooplankton, fish larvae, fishes, oxygen, carbon dioxide, salinity, biogenic elements, and detritus) affected by the solar radiation, surface wind, sea temperature, and river discharge. The equations of the model contain control agents governing the dependences of the elements of the food chain on the vitally important resources and environmental conditions. The scenarios of the processes of development are constructed for the simulated annual courses of external actions. The possibility of management of fish resources by regulating the flows of biogenic elements and detritus with river discharge is discussed. A mechanism of management based on the monitoring of the concentration of dissolved oxygen in seawater is proposed. The numerical experiments show that the ABC-model of the processes of development in the ecosystem of the coastal zone of the sea makes it possible to simulate the scenarios of regulation of the flows of biogenic elements and detritus into the sea with an aim of preservation of of fish resources. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 36–49, January–February, 2009.     

Simulation modeling of the conditional resource potentials of the environment

It is suggested to describe the ecological and economic features of the local sites of natural environments (dry-land and water areas) by their resource potential conditional relative to the technologies of their application. An information model aimed at the prediction of scenarios of conditional resource potentials capable of evaluation of the efficiency of consumption of the resources is developed. The model is based on the monitoring of the amount of debt for the consumption of the resources accumulated by a branch of economy (plant) in the unfavorable economic situation or in the case of deterioration of environmental conditions. Examples of simulation of the processes of consumption of the resources aimed at the realization of control over the stable development of ecological and economic systems are presented. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 24–42, March–April, 2006.     

A model of the dynamics of the ecosystem of the Sea of Azov

We use many-year archival observations of hydrologic and hydrobiologic state of the Sea of Azov for the identification of the structure of a model of its ecosystem. The ecosystem model, supplemented with expert estimates of bioresource consumption (fish reserve), contamination level, and possible ecologic fines for violation of the sea natural state, is formalized by the method of system dynamics. Hereat, the major part of influence functions is found in terms of observational data with application of self-organization algorithms. We also present the results of simulated experiments with the model of the ecosystem, which enable us to analyse scenarios of its behaviour under the influence of various external factors (wind, river discharge, water exchange with the Black Sea, etc.). Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

System dynamics of the consumption and reproduction of natural resources

We propose a system approach to the development of information technologies of control over the processes of consumption of natural resources. On the basis of the method of system dynamics, we construct a dynamic economical model of an ecological system relating the factor of economical profitability of consumption of the resources to the ecological state of the natural environment. The model enables one to estimate the environmental deductions from the profit of factories and plants required to compensate damage caused by their operation. As an example, we consider the process of control over the consumption of biological resources in the water area of the Azov Sea suffering the action of a coastal industrial plant withdrawing sea resources and polluting the water area with wastes. We also propose a procedure of assimilation of the data of observations in the models of system dynamics by converting these data into the information technologies of control. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev