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How vertical fish distribution may affect survey results 总被引:8,自引:7,他引:1
Aglen A.; Engas A.; Huse I.; Michalsen K.; Stensholt B. K. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1999,56(3):345-360
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Hedwig Roderfeld Eleanor Blyth Rutger Dankers Geir Huse Dag Slagstad Ingrid Ellingsen Annett Wolf Manfred A. Lange 《Climatic change》2008,87(1-2):283-303
The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Köppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080. 相似文献
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The capelin is a small pelagic fish that performs long distance migrations. It is a key species in the Barents Sea ecosystem
and its distribution is highly climate dependent. Here we use an individual based model to investigate consequences of global
warming on capelin distribution and population dynamics. The model relies on input on physics and plankton from a biophysical
ocean model, and the entire life cycle of capelin including spawning of eggs, larval drift and adult movement is simulated.
Spawning day and adult movement strategies are adapted by a genetic algorithm. Spawning has to take place in designated near-shore
spawning areas. The output generated by the model is capelin migration/distribution and population dynamics. We present simulations
with present day climate and a future climate scenario. For the present climate the model evolves a spatial distribution resembling
typical spatial dynamics of capelin with the coasts of Northern Norway and Murman as the main spawning areas. For the climate
change simulation, the capelin is predicted to shift spawning eastwards and also utilize new spawning areas along Novaya Zemlya.
There is also a shift in the adult distribution towards the north eastern part of the Barents Sea and earlier spawning associated
with the warming. 相似文献
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