Filling gaps in time series of space-geodetic positioning

Several methods of time series analysis and forecasting require data at regular time intervals. But in space geodesy, most datasets are often full of gaps, resulting for example from hardware issue, modification of models, change of analysis strategy, and local geophysical phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to fill the gaps in time series of space-geodetic station positions, by the use of two different approaches: the iterative singular spectrum analysis (ISSA) and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN). In order to test the efficiency of the proposed methods to properly process missing data, we created synthetic gaps at random points in regular time series (i.e., time series without gaps) of Global Positioning System (GPS) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) station positions with data span longer than 4 years. For each analyzed time series, we created gaps (by removing successive points) of different lengths ranging from 1 to 52 gaps, and then, we filled these gaps by ISSA, GRNN, and other classical methods of interpolation such as nearest neighbor, linear, and cubic interpolations.The interpolation precision was evaluated by the technique of cross-validation which compares the estimated values with the original data. After several simulations on position time series with different lengths, we found that the ISSA technique provides better results in terms of root mean square error.     

Modeling hydrologic responses of the Zwalm catchment using the REW approach: propagation of uncertainty in soil properties to model output

The research presented in this paper focuses on the application of a newly developed physically based watershed modeling approach, which is called representative elementary watershed approach. The study stressed the effects of uncertainty of input parameters on the watershed responses (i.e., simulated discharges). The approach was applied to the Zwalm catchment, which is an agriculture-dominated watershed with a drainage area of 114 km² located in East Flanders, Belgium. Uncertainty analysis of the model parameters is limited to the saturated hydraulic conductivity because of its high influence on the watershed hydrologic behavior and availability of the data. The assessment of output uncertainty is performed using the Monte Carlo method. The ensemble statistical watershed responses and their uncertainties are calculated and compared with measurements. The results show that the measured discharges fall within the 95% confidence interval of the modeled discharge. This provides the uncertainty bounds of the discharges that account for the uncertainty in saturated hydraulic conductivity. The methodology can be extended to address other uncertain parameters as far as the probability density function of the parameter is defined.     

Behavior of some clays on drying and wetting paths

This paper presents an experimental study carried out on some clayey soils of Tlemcen region situated in the North West of Algeria. The characterization of the volumetric behavior under the effect of suction is studied on drying–wetting paths which highlight the correspondence between void ratio, degree of saturation, and water content versus suction. The initial conditions of studied material are in slurry form and compacted at different initial water contents. For the slurry form, correlations are derived to predict parameters characterizing the drying path.     

Effect of groundwater and sea weathering cycles on the strength of chalk rock from unstable coastal cliffs of NW France

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the role of groundwater and sea weathering on the strength of the chalk rocks exposed on the coastline of the English Channel in Normandy, NW France. We present a study of the rock strength variations of three representative chalk units (Lewes Chalk, Seaford Chalk and Newhaven Chalk) exposed at various locations on the coastal chalk cliffs. The combination of UCS tests and SEM observations have been used (1) on dry natural chalk samples, (2) on chalk samples at various moisture contents, (3) on dry chalk samples submitted to a 10-day cycle of alternating wetting and drying by distilled water and by sea water. Dry chalk samples show low UCS strength (3.46–4 MPa) indicative of very weak rocks. When chalk samples are submitted to progressive water wetting, they present a decrease of UCS strength and Young's modulus of 40% to 50%. This behaviour begins at low values of water content within the chalk, i.e., for a degree of water saturation ranging between 10% and 17%. When chalk samples are submitted to an artificial weathering cycle with distilled water, a decrease in strength is observed, whereas the Young's modulus increases. SEM observations indicate the occurrence of microcracks and particle aggregates in the sample. When chalk samples are submitted to an artificial weathering with sea water, the decrease of UCS strength and Young's modulus achieves a minimum. SEM observations indicate salt crystals within the chalk. On the coastal cliffs of NW France, weathering processes depend both on chalk lithology, which show a range of sensitivity to weathering and on the location of the chalk in the coastal area. Processes allied to the degree of weathering (e.g., salt crystallisation or fresh water disaggregation) differ in the chalk massif, on the cliff face and on the shore platform.     

Global representation of the drying–wetting curves of four engineering soils: experiments and correlations

The main objective of this paper is to examine how different engineering soils react to environmental variations and to provide correlations to characterize their behaviour under null external mechanical stress. Two French and two Algerian soils with liquid limits ranging from 36 to 112 were prepared under both slurry and Proctor compaction conditions, and then subjected to drying–wetting paths with suction controlled from several kPa to several hundreds of MPa. Experimental results are presented in five diagrams to show globally and simultaneously the shrinkage–swelling, saturation–desaturation and water retention characteristics. A reasonable consistency was observed between the oedometric and drying curves of slurry, confirming the equivalence between hydraulic loading (suction) and mechanical loading (consolidation stress) on the volume change behaviour of different soils. As an intrinsic parameter of soil nature, liquid limit was found to have a significant influence on the shrinkage limit, air-entry suction and compressibility of both slurry and compacted samples. For that reason, correlations between these characteristics and liquid limit were set up, providing a good basis for a first estimation of the drying–wetting curves. At the micro-scale, new experimental results were obtained: either on drying or wetting path, the micro-pores were almost unaffected, whereas, when matrix suction increased from 0.1 to 8 MPa, the volume of macro-pores decreased to quasi-closure. At last, the analogy between the compaction and drying–wetting curves, and the comparison of different methods to determine the water retention curve were addressed. Such analogies and comparisons contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms of mechanical stress and suction.     

Trends in global and regional sea level from satellite altimetry within the framework of auto-SSA

The sea level change is a crucial indicator of our climate. The spatial sampling offered by satellite altimetry and its continuity during the last 18 years are major assets to provide an improved vision of the sea level changes. In this paper, we analyze the University of Colorado database of sea level time series to determine the trends for 18 large ocean regions by means of the automatic trend extraction approach in the framework of the singular spectrum analysis technique. Our global sea level trend estimate of 3.19 mm/year for the period from 1993 to 2010 is comparable with the 3.20-mm/year sea level rise since 1993 calculated by AVISO Altimetry. However, the trends from the different ocean regions show dissimilar patterns. The major contributions to the global sea level rise during 1993–2010 are from the Indian Ocean (3.78?±?0.08 mm/year).     

Segmentation of the southern Mariana back-arc spreading center

SeaBeam multibeam bathymetry obtained during cruise SO-69 of research vessel (R/V) Sonne defines the segmentation and structure of ∼ 300 km of the Mariana back-arc spreading center south of the Pagan fracture zone at 17°33'N. Eight ridge segments, ranging from 14 to 64 km in length, are displaced as much as 2.7–14.5 km by both right- (predominantly) and left-lateral offsets and transform faults. An axial ridge commonly occupies the middle portion of the rift valley and rises from 200 to 700 m above the adjacent sea floor, in places shoaling to a water depth of 3200 m. An exception is the 60-km-long segment between 16°58' and 17°33'N where single peaks only a few tens of meters high punctuate the rift axis. Photographic evidence and rock samples reveal the presence of mostly pillow lavas outcropping on the axial ridges or peaks whereas the deeper parts of the rift valley floor (max. depth 4900 m) are heavily to totally sedimented. Abundant talus ramps along fault scarps testify to ongoing disruption of the crust. Lozenge-shaped collapse structures are covered by layers of sediment up to tens of centimeters thick on the rift valley floor. The presence of discrete volcanic ridges in the southern Mariana back-arc spreading region suggests that emplacement of oceanic crust at this slow spreading center occurs by `multi-site' injection of magma. Along-axis variations in length, crestal depth, and size of the axial ridges can be best explained by different stages in the cyclicity of magma supply along-axis.     

Modelling the effect of temperature on unsaturated soil behaviour

A simple thermohydromechanical (THM) constitutive model for unsaturated soils is described. The effective stress concept is extended to unsaturated soils with the introduction of a capillary stress. This capillary stress is based on a microstructural model and calculated from attraction forces due to water menisci. The effect of desaturation and the thermal softening phenomenon are modelled with a minimal number of material parameters and based on existing models. THM process is qualitatively and quantitatively modelled by using experimental data and previous work to show the application of the model, including a drying path under mechanical stress with transition between saturated and unsaturated states, a heating path under constant suction and a deviatoric path with imposed suction and temperature. The results show that the present model can simulate the THM behaviour in unsaturated soils in a satisfactory way.     

Mediterranean Sea level trends from long-period tide gauge time series

The main purpose of this study is to highlight, on the basis of statistical tests, the significant long-term changes of the Mediterranean Sea level, through the analysis of historical tide gauge records. In this framework, 14 tide gauge monthly series selected from the Permanent Service of the Mean Sea Level （PSMSL） database were used. The search for the presence or not of trends within these series, that have a temporal coverage from 59 to 142 years, was carried out using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen''s slope estimator. The obtained results show that the Split Rt Marjana series are the only ones which does not exhibit a significant trend. The other 13 series show significant increasing trends. This result seems sufficient to suppose the presence, in the past century, of a new climatic phase on the scale of the Mediterranean basin, where the rising sea level is one of the consequences.     

Sea level in the Mediterranean Sea: seasonal adjustment and trend extraction within the framework of SSA

The sea level change is a crucial indicator of our climate. The spatial sampling offered by satellite altimetry and its continuity during the past years are the major assets to provide an improved vision of the Mediterranean sea level changes. In this paper, an automatic signal extraction approach, based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), is utilized for analysis and seasonal adjustment of the Mediterranean Sea level series. This automatic approach enables us to overcome the difficulties of visual identification of trend constituents that sometimes we encounter when using the conventional SSA method. The results indicate that the Mediterranean mean sea level is dominated by several harmonic components. The annual signal is particularly strong and almost covers 73.62 % of the original sea level series variation whiles its amplitude is about 15 cm. The extracted trend also indicates that the Mediterranean main sea level has significantly been raised during the period 1993–2012 by 2.44?±?0.4 mm yr^?1. As an important consequence, considering the current situation, if this trend continues, the Mediterranean Sea level will be raised about 22 cm by the end of this century, which makes a dramatic effect on several issues such as land, flora, fauna, and people activities established along the Mediterranean coastlines.