Maneuvering performance of high-speed ships with effect of roll motion

Equations of yaw, sway, roll and rudder motions are formulated to represent realistic maneuvering behavior of high-speed ships such as destroyers. Important coupling terms between yaw, sway, roll and rudder were included on the basis of recent captive model test results of a high-speed ship. A series of computer runs was made by using equations of yaw, sway, roll and rudder motions. Results indicate substantial coupling effects between yaw, roll, and rudder, which introduce changes in maneuvering characteristics and reduce course stability in high-speed operation. These effects together with relatively small GM (which is typical for certain high-speed ships) produce large rolling motions in a seaway as frequently observed in actual operations. Results of digital simulations and captive model tests clearly indicate the major contributing factors to such excessive rolling motions at sea.     

First insights into the demography of the rare gorgonian Spinimuricea klavereni in the Mediterranean Sea

We present the results of the first study to highlight the demography, morphometry and growth rates of Spinimuricea klavereni, a rare Mediterranean endemic gorgonian exceptionally common in shallow depths of the Northeast Marmara Sea. In the study area, this species forms vast populations on rocks, boulders and attached to pebbles/stones/shells on soft substrates between 20 and 45 m depth, with a total average density of 0.3 colonies·m^?2 but comprising patches up to 3 colonies·m^?2. Colonies, which are on average 42.9 (±20.1) cm in height, can reach up to 110 cm. Unlike other Mediterranean gorgonians, the colonies studied here showed fast growth rates that decreased with increasing colony height, between 1.5–11.1 and 4.96 ± 3.01 cm·year^?1 on average. The low necrosis and high growth rates displayed by this species in the Northeast Marmara Sea confirm the previously hypothesized opportunistic behaviour of the species. The unique community consisting of S. klavereni and other rare gorgonian/soft corals has limited distribution in this area and should be considered to be a vulnerable marine ecosystem. Therefore we recommend that some conservation measures are taken, including the prohibition of all fisheries and anchoring over these assemblages.     

Prediction of earthquake hazard by hidden Markov model (around Bilecik,NW Turkey)

Earthquakes are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an earthquake is defined by several approaches and consequently earthquake parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an earthquake prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an earthquake occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov model provides a better understanding of the nature of earthquakes. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov model is used to predict the earthquake hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of earthquakes occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes (M) at least 4.0 are modeled by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the model by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 earthquakes.